Will war break out between China and the US? A significant group of American academics studying China-US relations believe that a war between the two countries is inevitable.
In his 2017 book Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?, Harvard Professor Graham Allison analysed 500 years of world history, and identified 16 cases where a rising power has threatened to displace a major ruling power. He found that 12 of these 16 potential conflicts ultimately resulted in war.
Based on various international relations theories, Allison argues that a war between China and the US is inevitable unless China slows its challenge to American hegemony or the US humbles itself and is willing to become world number two.
…the various theories and models found in textbooks hold limited practical significance in real life.
Theories and realities
Many Chinese academics also seem to share the concern that a war between China and the US is inevitable. During my studies of international politics in the US, one of the few insights I gained was that the various theories and models found in textbooks hold limited practical significance in real life.
I remember when the teacher was discussing these theories and models in class, such as the prisoner’s dilemma, I spoke up and said that they are inaccurate and do not truly reflect social realities. The professor retorted, “Who said these theories and models are accurate? Political science is the study of these theories and models. If you’re not interested in them, perhaps you should reconsider your major.” I was taken aback by my professor’s response.
To keep my scholarship, I wrote an essay arguing that the value of these theories and models lies not in their accuracy, but in their ability to simplify complex social phenomena, allowing us to understand them better, just as we use maps not because they are accurate but because they reduce the massive size of planet Earth to a scale we can study in a classroom. The professor was very pleased with my essay and even commended me in class.
US-China confrontation in history
The Thucydides’s Trap that Allison used does not apply to the China-US confrontation; his assertion that the leaders of China and the US both want to avoid war is also inaccurate.
Over the past 70 years, the US has been encircling China by establishing hundreds of military bases around its periphery. Dai Xu, a senior colonel in the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, whom Americans consider one of the six major hawks in the Chinese military, has also repeatedly highlighted the US’s “C-shaped” encirclement of China. In his 2016 documentary The Coming War on China, renowned Australian journalist, academic and documentary filmmaker John Pilger also pointed out the US’s encirclement of China.
The Korean War in the 1950s and the Vietnam War from the 1960s to the 1970s were clearly understood by Chinese leaders as indirect wars against China.
The China-US confrontation began 70 years ago. The Korean War in the 1950s and the Vietnam War from the 1960s to the 1970s were clearly understood by Chinese leaders as indirect wars against China. It is just that these wars were skillfully navigated by People’s Republic of China (PRC) founder Mao Zedong and his generation of leaders. A famous saying Mao left the Chinese people is: “[W]e mean that its nature will never change, that the imperialists will never lay down their butcher knives, that they will never become Buddhas, till their doom.”
And this is why the PRC has been preparing for a potential invasion by the US since they were founded. To gain the Soviet Union’s support, Mao, who had always advocated for self-reliance, reluctantly signed a “leaning to one side” Treaty of Friendship, Alliance and Mutual Assistance with the USSR. In 1959 when Nikita Khrushchev tore up the agreement, recalled Soviet specialists from China and took away the blueprints, Marshal Chen Yi, the Chinese foreign minister, angrily declared that China will develop its own nuclear arsenal even if it means losing everything else.
‘No First Use’ for China
The Chinese people have never sought to compete with the US for world supremacy. Back when the country wanted to make everyone a soldier, it was always about preparing to defeat enemies on Chinese soil should they invade.
Today, China possesses atomic bombs, hydrogen bombs, a variety of rockets, and an array of radars and satellites. China has all sorts of advanced weaponry, including some that the US does not have. The advanced aircraft and anti-aircraft weapons showcased at the Zhuhai Airshow clearly illustrate that China’s military technology is not inferior to that of the US.
Many academics think that war will break out between China and the US over Taiwan or the South China Sea. But I beg to differ, because the cost is too high and the returns too little.
However, China is the only nuclear-armed country in the world that maintains an unconditional No First Use of nuclear weapons policy. Many Chinese believe that China should back out of this commitment. But I think that this pledge is wise because it shows that China does not want war and will not strike first.
The US need not misjudge China — China’s commitment to this policy underscores its confidence in its nuclear deterrent. Any potential aggression against China would have serious consequences.
High cost of war
Many academics think that war will break out between China and the US over Taiwan or the South China Sea. But I beg to differ, because the cost is too high and the returns too little.
The US is already deep in debt and will not readily initiate wars. It is not worthwhile to engage in a fate-altering war with China over Taiwan. The US will not undertake an unprofitable venture. At the same time, the US will not engage in a showdown with China over the South China Sea, effectively in China’s backyard. The US simply cannot afford to lose.
The US seeks to challenge and create trouble for China, but it will not engage in unprofitable ventures. It has never waged an all-out war against a comparable adversary and will not enter conflicts without a high probability of victory.
This level of military power is unprecedented. The cost of challenging such a colossal adversary is self-evident.
Today, China’s military capabilities are comparable to that of the US. With a population of 1.4 billion, China can mobilise a wartime force of nearly 300 million. Its steelmaking capacity is about ten times that of the US, while its manufacturing output surpasses that of the US, Japan, Germany and France combined.
This level of military power is unprecedented. The cost of challenging such a colossal adversary is self-evident. Thus, the so-called Thucydides’s Trap simply does not exist between China and the US. Both China and the US are aware that a war between them would have no winner, only mutual destruction — a catastrophe that neither country, nor the world, can bear. In the face of such devastation, fighting for global dominance becomes utterly meaningless.
Related: Rubio and the China hawks: Setting the stage for a confrontational 2025 | How China will deal with Trump 2.0 | Trump 2.0 and China: A wild card in East Asia
Damascus falls: China’s Middle East dilemma deepens
By Alessandro Arduino
How AstraZeneca’s China fraud was about more than greed
By Caixin Global
Can Lee Hsien Loong, China’s ‘old friend’, help navigate US-China relations?
By Han Yong Hong
Why BMW, Audi and Mercedes are losing their shine in China
By Caixin Global
China’s restaurant chains may be biting off more than they can chew overseas
By Caixin Global
Insights on China, right in your mailbox. Sign up now.