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Between the demise of Joe Biden’s presidency, the assassination attempts on Donald Trump and November’s stunning results in the presidential election, 2024 was a wild year for political news. I’m not sure that 2025 will be much calmer. In fact, our political system could experience one shock after another, as Trump and his administration try to remake American government and conflict continues to roil the world.
How will Washington respond? What will the effect on our lives be?
I don’t really like to make predictions — that’s what fortunetellers are for. But since journalism is about asking the right questions, I’m sharing the five that are top of mind for me as we head into the new year.
They have 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. They have Capitol Hill. They have the Supreme Court. Now what? Getting what you want is always dangerous in politics — it’s always easiest to blame the other side for your own shortcomings, but if the other side is in the minority, as the Democrats are in Washington, that becomes harder to do.
Our political system could experience one shock after another, as Trump tries to remake American government and conflict continues to roil the world.
Now, it’s all on Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D.; House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La.; and their reluctant ally in the White House, President-elect Donald Trump. If prices continue to rise, voters will make the GOP own inflation. If undocumented migrants keep coming across the border with Mexico, the GOP will own that explosive issue, too. The recent fight over government spending, with Trump moving to spike a deal congressional Republicans had crafted, is probably an unwelcome preview of things to come.
Then there’s Elon Musk’s emergence as a political powerhouse. It was he who first objected to the spending deal, with Trump following his lead. Then, he promptly got into a fight about immigration, leading to a MAGA mini-civil war between hard-core isolationists and those, like Musk, who want to continue recruiting skilled immigrants to the United States. It has all been very messy, and very public.
Of course, the two parties could work together, agreeing to share responsibility without trying to constantly shift blame. But this is Washington we’re talking about.
Expect inaction followed by finger-pointing at shadowy “woke” forces, with frequent gusts of incompetence. And lots and lots of Elon X posts.
Implicit in Trump’s pitch to voters was a return to how things were before the coronavirus pandemic: a strong economy at home, no new entanglements abroad. But the “before times” were not quite as rosy as some of the president-elect’s supporters want you to believe. And time travel is never a good political strategy.
Did the migrant crisis get worse under Biden? Yes, but now it’s Trump’s problem, one that he has promised to solve. He’s also going to end the wars in Middle East and Eastern Europe — or so he says. Look out, inflation. Watch out, China. You’ve been put on notice, government bureaucrats.
Trump has been more disciplined during this transition than he was eight years ago, when the lobby of Trump Tower became a marble-clad circus. That’s a good sign, but for Trump to actually carry out his promises will require a level of focused multitasking and responsibility-delegating his first administration never really showed.
Everyone recognizes that, after November’s defeats, a new approach is necessary: to policy, to messaging, to Trump himself. But nobody has stepped up, thus far, to show the rest of the party how to manage those imperatives in a compelling way.
Sorry, folks, but it won’t be Vice President Kamala Harris, despite what her aides are whispering to reporters. She will always have her supporters, but there are simply not enough of them to convince other Democrats that she should be the party’s unofficial leader as it prepares to battle Trump for a second time.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, of New York, has shown an ability to keep his conference in line but does not yet have a national profile — and may, in fact, prefer a lower-key approach from that of his predecessor and mentor, Nancy Pelosi.
Sorry, folks, but it won’t be Vice President Kamala Harris, despite what her aides are whispering to reporters.
That leaves governors like Wes Moore of Maryland, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, JB Pritzker of Illinois and Maura Healey of Massachusetts as potential contenders. They have a tricky road ahead. The appetite for a full-on anti-Trump resistance is low, but nobody wants to be seen as a quisling, especially when it comes to issues like migrant deportations.
I happen to be extremely bearish on Pete Buttigieg, the outgoing transportation secretary, and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan. I said I wouldn’t make predictions, but here’s one: Both Mayor Pete and Big Gretch are going to suffer DeSantis-style devaluations.
Then there’s John Fetterman, the iconoclastic junior senator from Pennsylvania who has broken with his party on Israel and immigration. Will he continue to rise by bucking liberals? Is he serious about working with the Trump administration? And would he wear shorts and a hoodie to his own inauguration?
Oh, and never count out AOC.
We tend to focus on the Supreme Court, given how hugely consequential its decisions are. But while it receives thousands of petitions, the Supreme Court reviews only about 100 cases per year. That means the vast majority of federal cases will remain in lower district and circuit courts.
During his term in office, Biden appointed 235 federal judges — just one more than Trump. That means that many courthouses are now sharply divided, so that even the famously liberal 9th Circuit isn’t quite what it used to be. Then there is the whole other matter of state courts, which are also becoming increasingly conservative.
All that will make the fight against Trump much more difficult for liberal attorneys general and progressive interest groups who want to stop the incoming administration from rolling back environmental rules and protections for trans people.
Whatever your own views on geopolitics, the images and stories that have emerged from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Israel’s campaign against Hamas have been heartbreaking: flattened cities, maimed children, prisoners and hostages tortured.
If you want to be hailed as a peace-brokering dealmaker for the history books, you’d better move quickly.
At this point, it’s difficult to see either conflict ending soon, even with Trump’s unpredictable, unconventional involvement. Then again, maybe his unorthodox approach is exactly what other world leaders need to accelerate their push for peace.
Do it quickly, Mr. President-elect, and there could be a Nobel Peace Prize in it for you. Just imagine showing off that medal to guests at Mar-a-Lago. But if you want to be hailed as a peace-brokering dealmaker for the history books, you’d better move quickly.
And, of course, there’s the unexpected — the unknown unknowns, to borrow from Donald Rumsfeld. But we can’t worry about those. American democracy still stands, the New York Mets have Juan Soto, and “Happy Gilmore 2” is coming soon. Not bad, by my count. Not bad at all.
Alexander Nazaryan writes about politics, culture and science.
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