The 2024 NFL postseason field is finally set.
It only took a year of planning and strategizing (in most clubs’ cases anyway), and 272 regular-season games to settle the AFC’s and NFC’s playoff entries – all of them vying for a spot in Super Bowl 59, which will kick off at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans on Feb. 9.
Which are best equipped to survive what will likely be a very difficult road to the “Big Easy”? We’ve ranked all 14 teams that still have a chance to play on Super Sunday, from worst to best, in terms of their championship viability.
Firstly, dap ‘em up. Almost no one – me included – gave them even a remote shot to get this far with a rookie quarterback (Bo Nix), a lack of topflight offensive weaponry, an unproven defense or a salary cap crippled by the early release of Nix’s predecessor, Russell Wilson, last March. Props, Sean Payton.
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Now, let’s be real – given, after all, cold reality is about to set in. The Chiefs effectively waved the Broncos, who failed to clinch a wild card in Weeks 16 and 17, into the postseason Sunday – because Kansas City and everyone else in the field would rather be potentially game-planning for the Broncos than Joe Burrow and the scalding Cincinnati Bengals, who would have qualified had Denver lost in Week 18. Regardless of who obtained the AFC’s No. 7 seed, a Super Bowl trip was always going to be a tough assignment given the path, at minimum, would require wins at Buffalo and Arrowhead to even reach the conference title game.
Good work, Broncos, but your job – for this season anyway – is just about done.
The only teams on longer losing skids than Pittsburgh’s four-game free fall are the Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns, aka the clubs slotted to choose first and second, respectively, atop the 2025 NFL draft. Woof. The Steelers haven’t only failed to win lately, they’ve generally been noncompetitive, losing those last four by an average of 13 points. The defense has largely been MIA over the past month, while Wilson has simultaneously resembled the quarterback who appeared washed in Denver – guilty of head-scratching turnovers and baffling clock management on top of a general inability to move the ball through air with any regularity.
It’s hardly an encouraging state of affairs for a franchise eight years removed from its most recent postseason victory. However …
Recent struggles aside, Wilson has more than his share of playoff stripes, while veteran defenders such as T.J. Watt, Cam Heyward and Minkah Fitzpatrick won’t shrink from what’s ahead. And that would be the Ravens, whom the Steelers had beaten eight times in nine meetings … prior to a 34-17 setback at M&T Bank Stadium on Dec. 21 anyway. Still, perhaps no other team has the ability to routinely render Baltimore star Lamar Jackson a mere mortal – and that capability alone should give Pittsburgh a Steel City brawler’s chance … of at least making the divisional round.
A group that appeared to be on a steep ascent toward a championship level – something that H-Town hasn’t enjoyed since the Oilers were an AFL powerhouse in the 1960s – has decidedly plateaued after what seemed a promising breakthrough in 2023. Offensive injuries and a too-often disjointed attack – one often undermined by a shaky line – have led to something of a regression by QB C.J. Stroud, last season’s Offensive Rookie of the Year. The defense has been slightly more dependable overall yet has also surrendered at least 26 points in four of Houston’s last eight games.
The home game conferred by the AFC South crown could help, as might a wild-card matchup against a Chargers team that also doesn’t have much collective experience in these situations. But hard to envisage a best-case scenario for the Texans beyond a second consecutive trip to the divisional round.
No shade directed at QB Jayden Daniels. At all. None. But there have been 116 starts by quarterbacks in the Super Bowl … but not one has been by a rookie.
Perhaps Daniels can be the one to break that mold. It’s very easy to build a case that his NFL debut is the best a first-year quarterback has ever had. He’s the primary reason a franchise that’s been lost in the wilderness for most of the past three decades suddenly finds itself elevated to relevance in what seems like a meaningful and sustainable manner. But let’s not saddle Daniels, Washington’s leading rusher in 2024, with the Jackson comp. Sure, the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner is just about the next best thing already and will doubtless carve his own identity – and that may well involve being a better and more dangerous passer than young Jackson much earlier on Daniels’ NFL arc.
Also, it’s not fair to characterize the Commanders as a one-man band. WR Terry McLaurin is a Pro Bowler, and first-year HC Dan Quinn has had a huge hand in resetting the culture while getting the most out of a defense that has few recognizable names outside of future Hall of Fame LB Bobby Wagner.
Still, history is an important guidepost. Washington likely has enough firepower to notch a postseason win. But the Bucs are a very tough matchup out of the chute. And the rookie passers who have historically had the most success in the playoffs – think Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez, Russell Wilson or Ben Roethlisberger – have essentially had complete teams around them, ones that weren’t necessarily reliant on a green QB. Washington isn’t that kind of outfit, so very high bar for Daniels and OC Kliff Kingsbury – he’s never experienced a postseason victory in his five seasons on NFL coaching staffs – to clear immediately.
Who’s got it better than them? Maybe “future us” first-year boss Jim Harbaugh admitted after guiding a team into postseason for the fourth time in his five seasons as an NFL head coach. And the Bolts have many of the attributes that can portend playoff success – toughness, discipline, capability to run the ball, plus a quarterback (Justin Herbert) who can easily take over a game yet will rarely lose one.
Clearly a team on the rise, the Chargers seem ahead of schedule in Year 1 under Harbaugh as they take aim at the franchise’s first Lombardi Trophy. And opening at Houston seems like as favorable a matchup as they could hope for. Still, Harbaugh’s team has yet to prove it can consistently compete with the league’s elite, and it certainly doesn’t seem to possess the explosiveness to stick around if a generally stingy defense fails to contain some of the league’s more combustible offenses – particularly on the road.
Be nice to see a bit more appreciation for my NFC Super Bowl pick in preseason. Few 11-win teams are able to fly under the radar like this group, which has few weaknesses, one of the league’s top coaches in Matt LaFleur (probably also underrated) and nearly reached the NFC championship game last season, QB Jordan Love’s first as leader of the Pack.
Though there won’t be any more games at Lambeau Field this season, don’t expect the NFC’s seventh seed to shy away from being road warriors given their success there in the 2023 playoffs. (And, for what it’s worth, the last time the Packers won the Super Bowl to cap the 2010 season, they did it as the conference’s lowest-seeded entry.)
But there are major drawbacks this time – namely having to win at Philadelphia and then Detroit to merely make the NFC title round. And a team that was swept by the Lions and Vikings this season and also lost to the Eagles hasn’t exactly proven it’s able to hang with heavyweights. Love, who had to leave Sunday’s loss to the Chicago Bears after banging his throwing elbow, and the Packers also aren’t carrying the same load of momentum that propelled them into January a year ago. And Green Bay’s outlook certainly won’t be improved now that WR Christian Watson and CB Jaire Alexander have been lost to knee injuries.
It’s been a great season. Great. Unexpected. Perhaps a major building block toward the Lombardi Trophy that has forever eluded this franchise.
But is a letdown already setting in? To win 14 games but have to start the playoffs on the road as a wild card is literally unheard of – and the Vikes must return to Los Angeles’ SoFi Stadium, where they’ve already lost to the Rams once this year. Also, Minnesota’s protagonists have much to prove. HC Kevin O’Connell is a brilliant, rising star who previously coaxed 13 wins out of his 2022 edition … which summarily lost to an average New York Giants team in the wild-card round. QB Sam Darnold has been a revelation in 2024, but he’s also never started in the playoffs and had one of his worst games of the season Sunday night, when the NFC’s No. 1 seed was within grasp.
The Vikings are explosive, opportunistic – particularly an unrelenting defense tied for the league lead with 33 turnovers generated – and have one of the NFL’s truly unique and lethal weapons in WR Justin Jefferson. Yet it’s hard to drum up too much confidence that those elements can underpin an extended playoff run, particularly coming off a deflating performance at Detroit when so much was at stake.
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The NFC West champions are largely rested, fairly young and fresh – particularly a blossoming defense – yet experienced in key spots, specifically HC Sean McVay, QB Matthew Stafford and WR Cooper Kupp, the Super Bowl 56 MVP.
After employing O’Connell as his offensive coordinator for two years, we’re going to give an edge to McVay in the wild-card coaching matchup given the insights he’ll have into his protégé – even though both men will doubtless be considering ways to break tendencies. But McVay’s 7-4 postseason record and pair of Super Bowl trips are tough to ignore. His team is also flush with playmakers – keep an eye on rookie Pro Bowl OLB Jared Verse – and, despite suffering its share of injuries over the course of the season, has steadily gotten guys back, including the inspirational return of TE Tyler Higbee from a gruesome knee injury suffered in last year’s playoff loss.
But keep an eye on Stafford. The 36-year-old had a fairly quiet season by his standards and really seemed to tail off in December – throwing one TD pass over his final three starts, while failing to pass for 200 yards or post a QB rating of even 85.0 in any of them.
You’d think a team that won the Super Bowl four years ago – albeit with Tom Brady but also several players who are still here – and has won the NFC South every season since, the last two with QB Baker Mayfield, would get a little more respect. You’d think a team that handed Detroit one of its two losses this season and nearly beat the Lions in Motown during last year’s divisional playoff round would get a little more respect. You’d think a team that has been among the league’s most dominant over the final third of the season would get a little more respect.
Alas.
That’s not to say anybody should bet the mortgage on the Bucs winning it all. Though they can score with anybody, the defense is about as underwhelming as it’s been since HC Todd Bowles came to town. And injuries have deprived them of key players like WR Chris Godwin and, just over the weekend, S Jordan Whitehead, who was hurt in a car accident.
Still, there’s a fearlessness to this team – which certainly stems largely from Mayfield – and little reason to believe a Krewe that was nearly in the NFL’s final four last season isn’t capable of making another significant championship push.
Aside from its inherent benefits, how important was the No. 1 seed in the AFC? Consider that the Bills were one of two teams in the league that didn’t lose at home this season … the other being the Chiefs, who edged out Buffalo for home-field advantage. Still, if all goes as planned, the Bills will be at Highmark Stadium for at least the next two weekends before hitting the road for Arrowhead or – perhaps – hosting the AFC championship game if K.C. somehow flames out.
The perennial AFC East champs will be a very tough out, the squad’s “everybody eats” philosophy indicative that a threat could come from anywhere, even if MVP candidate Josh Allen and RB James Cook are the primary offensive threats. They can beat you in a variety of ways, the first team in league history to post at least 30 rushing and 30 receiving touchdowns. Buffalo also led the league in turnover differential (+24) by a wide margin – that included 32 takeaways, third in the league – which tells you the Bills are more than content to embarrass you but unlikely to compromise themselves.
Still, aside from a checkered playoff history (recent and distant), this team is hardly bulletproof. Can anyone really adequately pick up the slack if Allen has a bad day? Will a defense that allowed two forty-burgers in the past five weeks hold? Maybe and hopefully if you’re a Mafia member.
Granted, retired C Jason Kelce is gone (from the lineup anyway), and transcendent RB Saquon Barkley is present for duty. Otherwise, there are ample similarities between the 2024 Eagles and 2022 Eagles, who came up just short of winning Super Bowl 57. Philadelphia can be dominant on offense and/or stifling on defense, coordinator Vic Fangio’s unit ranked No. 1 overall by a sizable margin after surrendering fewer than 280 yards, on average, per week.
Unsurprisingly, after finally being plugged into an offense worthy of his copious talents and propelled by perhaps the league’s best line, Barkley has been more than a difference-maker here. His mere presence creates easier and increased opportunities for WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith and TE Dallas Goedert, who rejoined the lineup Sunday.
However, also like 2022, QB Jalen Hurts has battled injury down the stretch, sidelined by a concussion since Dec. 22. He’s quietly crafted his most efficient season as a pro, and early indications are that he’ll be ready to play this Sunday when the Packers come to Lincoln Financial Field. But the rust factor could be an issue, and there will likely always be concerns about Hurts’ ability to pass his team back into a game if it falls into a sizable deficit that reduces the Barkley threat – and that’s not a far-fetched problem in a field that includes the Lions and Buccaneers, who have no problem posting 40 points, while Green Bay and Minnesota are also certainly capable of running up the score quickly.
Is anyone playing better? They’ve won four straight, by an average of 23 points, since a Week 14 bye. Good luck finding an offense that has more ways to beat you – even if Pro Bowl WR Zay Flowers (knee) misses time. After being the team’s early season Achilles, the defense has gelled – allowing fewer than 11 points and 250 yards over the past month while forcing six turnovers (including two pick-sixes). Even struggling K Justin Tucker has stabilized.
Oh yeah, Jackson is probably the best football player on the planet.
But before going all in on the Ravens, one must consider their recent postseason flops. They’re 2-5 in the playoffs since Jackson came aboard in 2018 – he missed one of those losses – and he’s decidedly not been the same player when the chips are on the table. The AFC North champs will likely have to win road games at Buffalo and Kansas City in order to reach the Super Bowl. And to do that, they’d be wise not to lose sight of their identity – looking at you, OC Todd Monken – and that means running the ball, whether by feeding RB Derrick Henry or some designed gallops for Jackson, who can loosen up a defense like no other. Also, Ravens supporters can’t be thrilled to see the Kryptonite Steelers, much as they’ve scuffled lately, as the opening assignment Saturday night.
Their rash of injuries is a clear and present concern, and they continued to mount in Sunday night’s clinching effort for the NFC’s No. 1 seed – rookie CB Terrion Arnold (foot) and G Kevin Zeitler the latest starters to be cast in doubt.
But there have already been signs of the cavalry, LB Alex Anzalone and PR/WR Kalif Raymond returning to the lineup in Week 18. And the possibility remains that DE Aidan Hutchinson might be able to return for the Super Bowl after breaking his leg three months ago, while RB David Montgomery has held out hope he can come back from an MCL injury.
Yet all the focus on injuries here also detracts from what this team has accomplished – like winning a club-record 15 games while posting 70 touchdowns (only three teams in NFL history have produced more in the regular season). QB Jared Goff, one of the offense’s five Pro Bowlers, is a proven playoff commodity. And Detroit’s prospects for going all the way – the Lions are the only team that has played for the entirety of the Super Bowl era, which started in 1966, but never reached Super Sunday – are greatly enhanced by that first-round bye and the knowledge that the next two games would be at Ford Field, which has developed into one of the league’s best home-field advantages.
All that aside, there’s an undeniable aura to this team – one cultivated by coach Dan Campbell and his seeming devil-may-care persona, though don’t miss his calculated approach to game-planning or the confidence and, yes, “grit” he’s imbued into the best Lions team its fans have seen in nearly seven decades.
It must be noted that defense – even a little bit in crucial situations – does often win championships. And the three teams that scored more TDs than Detroit (2007 New England Patriots, 2013 Broncos, 2018 Chiefs) all came up short. Yet Sunday night’s victory against Minnesota provided fresh evidence that, despite so many absent starters, coordinator Aaron Glenn’s unit can rise to the occasion.
These Lions might finally be ready to be kings of the NFL jungle.
Admittedly, as far as 15-2 regular seasons go, it wasn’t overly impressive. The Chiefs didn’t even rank in the top 10 league-wide in point differential (+59) – and would’ve only barely made it had they not punted entirely on their 38-0 loss Sunday to Denver. They’re quite strong up the middle on both sides of the ball but, with the exception of CB Trent McDuffie, there are a fair amount of issues on the outside – whether it’s protecting QB Patrick Mahomes, generating pressure, pass coverage or even consistency from the receivers.
But let’s not give a team that’s won three of the previous five Super Bowls (and lost another) short shrift. Remember, it was doom and gloom last year following their Christmas loss to the Las Vegas Raiders at Arrowhead. Yet Andy Reid, Mahomes and Co. found a way to close the season on a six-game heater – the average margin of victory was 6.8 points, sufficient to hoist the franchise’s latest Lombardi Trophy.
The defense remains topnotch if perhaps not quite as good as the 2023 version. K.C., already in the midst of what’s effectively a two-week rest period for the primary players, is already relatively healthy. And when you’re talking about Super Bowl viability – once again, few things are more important than having to win one fewer game than your competitors … while staying home to do so.
But maybe nothing is more notable here than a championship core’s motivation to pull off the first-ever Super Bowl three-peat, which Mahomes – he’s never failed to lead Kansas City to the AFC championship game since becoming the QB1 in 2018 – Travis Kelce and Chris Jones have been fixated on for nearly a year. Legacy and history are unparalleled motivators for the great ones.
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Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis.
