An earlier version of this article was first published in the On the Trail 2024 newsletter. Sign up to receive the newsletter in your inbox on Friday mornings here.
Happy Friday, friends. In the coming weeks, this newsletter will undergo a rebrand and focus more broadly on national politics. Which means … we need a new name. (Off The Trail, anyone?)
We’ll still deliver the top political news, from both the West and Washington, with an eye to the things most interesting to our readers.
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Trump’s deportation plans
Yuval Levin claimed the most astute of all the post-election hot takes. “The immediate aftermath of an election is a terrible time for political punditry,” Levin admitted, writing a week after Election Day. The knee-jerk reaction for many pundits, he explained, was to declare what Trump’s victory meant for insert-group-here: for the middle class, for immigrants, for big business, for America. A more predictable route, he said, would be to declare what Trump’s victory did not mean. To Levin, it did not mean that most Americans agree on every issue with Trump.
Levin explains:
This is the trap that our 21st-century presidents have tended to fall into. They win elections because their opponents were unpopular, and then—imagining the public has endorsed their party activists’ agenda—they use the power of their office to make themselves unpopular. This is why the public moved left on key issues during Trump’s first term and right during Biden’s. Voters in this election rejected the excesses and failures of the left far more than they endorsed the right—or much of anything else.
Levin’s full essay is worth your time, especially his observation that “most of what Trump himself is most eager to do” will “likely prove fairly unpopular when actually put into practice.”
Today, let’s consider his plans for mass deportations. He’s yet to put them into practice, as he’s not yet in office. But his plans on just how he’d carry it out are clearer now than they were on Election Day, and much clearer than when many voters cast their ballots.
In the month-and-change since Trump declared victory, we’ve learned that Trump plans to use the National Guard to carry out deportations; to pull resources from across the federal government to help; to declare a national emergency to access additional funds; to end birthright citizenship; to leverage tariffs as punishment for other countries not complying with U.S. immigration preferences; and to potentially separate millions of American families.
On Thursday, NBC News reported yet another detail: the Trump administration reportedly intends to rescind a long-standing policy prohibiting the apprehension of unauthorized migrants inside churches or hospitals.
Trump has justified all of this by saying it’s what Americans “want,” by virtue of his electoral victory. In an interview with Time magazine, Trump said Americans “want to see our country run with common sense”:
I don’t think people want to have our borders rushed by — it’s really an invasion of our country by foreign countries, and not just South America. I mean, these are countries all over the world. … They don’t want to be invaded … we had 182 countries where people invaded our country, essentially invaded our country. We don’t know who they are, we don’t know where they are. We don’t know anything about them.”
There is no doubt concerns over public safety and immigration played a significant role in Trump’s victory. Between 2021 and 2023, the U.S. saw the largest immigration surge in its history. According to CNN’s, NBC’s and ABC’s exit polls, immigration was the top issue for Trump voters, even more so than the economy. But Trump still finished with less than 50% of the popular vote. Does that mean voters have given an endorsement to Trump’s deportation plan, much of which is coming into focus post-election?
Jennie Murray, president and CEO of the National Immigration Forum, does not think so. She believes most Americans make up a “moderate majority,” she said, who think the U.S. should balance border security with “dignity and pathways for those that are here and contributing.”
Recent polling supports her thesis. Election exit polls like CNN’s, and more recent polls like Reuters/Ipsos, show an electorate that generally supports Trump’s promise to deport criminals but is against his promise to create mass detention camps or to deny paths to legalization for most immigrants inside the country unlawfully.
In a poll conducted last week by the National Immigration Forum and the Bullfinch Group, U.S. adults were asked if they agree with the following statement: “In accordance with American values, family unity, respect for human dignity, and protection for the persecuted must remain key priorities as the government increases border security and immigration enforcement.” Nearly three-fourths — 73% — said they agree, including 76% of Republicans.
A majority of Americans also disagree with Trump’s intentions to deport all unauthorized immigrants. When asked if immigration enforcement should prioritize “violent criminals and those with final orders of removal” versus focusing on “all individuals without legal status,” two-thirds — 66% — say criminals should be prioritized. Over 60% of Republicans agree.
These polls suggest that most Americans still aren’t fully on board with Trump’s plans. “It‘s definitely not a blank check,” Murray said. “It’s not a mandate.”
If NBC News’ reporting is true — that Trump plans to scrap the ICE prohibition from conducting immigration raids on hospitals and churches — Trump’s immigration plans will only become more unpopular. “I think we can know exactly how folks would act if they started to see ICE doing raids in their church parking lot,” said Murray, whose organization works closely with faith groups on immigration issues. “Anything that would violate religious liberties is a really big problem for conservative faith leaders and individuals.”
