This Sunday marks the final day of the 2024 NFL regular season, and the USA TODAY Sports staff is looking to cap it off with a bang.
There are numerous storylines and plenty of potential profit to be made. Some games have playoff seeding implications and others will decide who hits the beach next week or hosts a playoff game.
The guys have been on a positive run since the Christmas games and the crew is back to break down the best NFL bets for Sunday.
Our experts have provided the five best predictions for Sunday’s slate of games, selecting from all the available betting markets and supplying an in-depth analysis of spreads, player props and anytime touchdowns.
Here are the best NFL bets for Week 18 with odds from BetMGM. Best of luck if you tail.
NFL STATS CENTRAL: The latest NFL scores, schedules, odds, stats and more.
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Odds as of Saturday.
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Jacob Camenker, NFL writer: Week 18 is always about trying to find which teams actually have something on the line.. Often, it’s about playoff positioning, but for Geno Smith and the Seahawks, it’s all about the money. The 34-year-old quarterback has about $6 million worth of incentives on the line, $2 million of which are tied exclusively to the Seahawks winning this game.
Smith’s contract has a clause that grants him a $2 million escalator for either making the playoffs or leading his team to 10 wins. The Seahawks can’t make the postseason, but they can improve to 10-7 with a win over the Rams. That will give Smith and the offense extra motivation to try hard and put a beatdown on their divisional rival.
Meanwhile, the Rams are locked into either the No. 3 or No. 4 seed, so Sean McVay has decided to rest some of the team’s starters. That includes quarterback Matthew Stafford, which will draw Jimmy Garoppolo into the lineup. Garoppolo has been a solid starter at times, but it’s hard to imagine the Rams offense doing too much without its top players against a motivated Seattle defense. That should allow the Seahawks to cover this reasonable spread.
Ayrton Ostly, NFL writer: The Jaguars are out of contention for the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. They’ve won two of their last four games, both against Tennessee, and can finish the season on a high note after missing the playoffs again.
Three of Jacksonville’s four wins this season were in divisional games, including Week 5 against Indianapolis. Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson did not practice Wednesday or Thursday and will miss this game, as he did in Week 5.
That leaves the door open for the Jaguars to beat the spread. Indianapolis just lost outright to the worst team in the NFL by record (the New York Giants) in Week 17. With Richardson out, the Jaguars can get one more win before the season’s over.
This has the makings of a three-point win in either direction which makes this line too big.
Nick Brinkerhoff, NFL writer: Thanks to the holidays, many kids nationwide have been treated to an extended vacation. That means they’ve been playing with all the toys and running rampant, and plenty of parents are looking forward to school being back in session. Thanks to the meme culture that the internet thrives on, Murray is often compared to children like that.
Ironically enough, he is also chasing a toy this weekend in the Cardinals’ season finale, except his prize is a $750,000 check. Expensive, to say the least. Incentives week in the NFL can sometimes be more of a trap than treasure, but Murray seems like the type of guy to respect our hard-earned cash.
The task is simple: rush for 50 yards and a touchdown to claim the check. We’re not asking for anything out of the ordinary. Murray did this back in Week 5 against these same 49ers, running for 83 yards and a score. San Francisco hasn’t been tasked with stopping many mobile quarterbacks this season outside of Murray, so recent history doesn’t tell us much. However, Murray has bested his base line, which is hovering around 34.5 yards in five-of-seven career matchups against San Fran.
We’ll take a shot on the alternate line and look to cash in. If you’re feeling frisky, add in the anytime touchdown, bringing the price to +475. Regardless, we like Murray to be running on Sunday, especially without James Conner by his side. He just has to lace up his running shoes and put on the thinking cap to see how he’ll spend that mountain of cash.
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Jack McKessy, NFL writer: The over will be a popular bet here because of what’s at stake for Evans this week with his contract incentives. If he gets 85 more receiving yards, he’ll have recorded his 11th 1,000-yard season in a row, tying Jerry Rice’s record.
But, my goodness, 97.5 is way too high of a line for Evans, who didn’t even surpass that number as quarterback Baker Mayfield‘s top target in a 359-yard day. The veteran wideout has had more than 97 receiving yards just twice this season, with many of his other games falling below even a 70-yard production output. In his first game against New Orleans this year, he recorded just 34 yards – though it’s worth noting that was with fellow star receiver Chris Godwin still healthy.
In addition, the Buccaneers only need to win in Week 18 to wrap up the NFC South title and earn their playoff spot. If Evans reaches that 1,000-yard mark and the Bucs are up big late in the game, they’ll likely rest their starters to finish. That’s especially true given that head coach Todd Bowles’ reluctance to do so against the Ravens in Week 7 led to a season-ending injury for Godwin.
So, while the Saints are not a tough matchup for Evans, Mayfield, and the Buccaneers’ passing attack, I’m taking the under on the Tampa Bay standout’s egregiously high receiving yards line.
Tom Viera, NFL writer/editor: Last week, it was all about Bucky making us a buck, and he did just that. I’m running it back after he posted 190 total yards against Carolina. As Jack pointed out, plenty of attention and money will be on Irving’s teammate, who is chasing milestones and contract incentives.
The Buccaneers will host the Saints on Sunday and claim the NFC South title and the final playoff spot in the NFC with a win. Tampa Bay is a 14-point favorite so the game script should lead to more rushing attempts for Irving. Sometimes, the easiest spot to find an edge in Week 18 is finding the right motivated teams.
Bucky has averaged 22 touches and 146.4 scrimmage yards in his past five healthy games. The Saints have allowed the sixth-most rush yards and second-highest yards per carry (YPC) to running backs. He is tied with Derrick Henry with the most yards after contact per carry and fourth in missed tackles forced per carry among qualified backs. The Saints are seventh in missed tackle rate.
In Week 6, Irving had 105 total yards against New Orleans in a blowout where Sean Tucker ended up with more work. The Saints allowed Ameer Abdullah to go for 147 yards last week.
Bucky is balling. Continue to bank on him today.
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