WASHINGTON − Approval ratings for Canadian and Mexican leaders are skyrocketing amid popular outrage in those countries over President Donald Trump’s tariff threats − as his own approval ratings have slipped among Americans.
As Trump is poised to slap steep tariffs on America’s northern and southern neighbors − and has floated swallowing up Canada as the “51st state” − leaders in Mexico and Canada are defiant.
On Tuesday, Trump said he would double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% after Ontario announced a 25% surcharge on the Canadian province’s electricity exports to Michigan, Minnesota and New York. Ontario backed down.
But, amid the onslaught of threats and the prospect of economic pain, polls show voters in both border countries are rallying to their defiant leaders.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s approval ratings are sky high – 85% approve of her, while just 15% disapprove – the highest approval rating of any Mexican president in the last three decades, according to a poll from El Financiero conducted from Feb. 13 to 17 and Feb. 20 to 24.
In Canada, the ruling Liberal Party hadn’t led in national polls since February 2021. Now, according to a recent Ipsos survey, they lead the oppositon Conservatives, 38% to 36%.
Speaking to a crowd Sunday after members of the ruling Liberal party selected him as leader − and Canada’s next prime minister − Mark Carney didn’t mince words. “The Americans – they should make no mistake. In trade, as in hockey, Canada will win,” he said to cheers.
At a massive rally in Mexico City the same day, Sheinbaum took a similar tone.
“We can’t give up our sovereignty. Our people cannot be affected by decisions made by foreign governments or hegemonies,” she said.
Canada and Mexico are planning retaliatory tariffs of their own on U.S. goods, and American liquor has been swept off the shelves of Canadian retailers. On Tuesday, Canada backed off on a 25% surcharge the province of Ontario levied on eletricity exports to Michigan, Minnesota and New York after Trump threatened to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%.
For weeks, Trump leveraged the threat of steep tariffs to force concessions from the two countries on border security. Last Monday, he announced that across-the-board 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods would take effect within 24 hours.
But within days, Trump backpedaled, postponing tariffs on goods covered by a trade agreement between the U.S. and both countries. Trump also granted a request from automakers to delay tariffs on cars for the same time period.
Sheinbaum hit back at the tariffs last week, saying “nobody wins with this decision.” Mexico would seek other trading partners, she said.
She took a victory lap after Trump’s delay of the tariffs, declaring that “dialogue and respect have prevailed.”
“Mexican people view her as having done a very good job in handling the situation,” said John McNeece, senior fellow at the University of California-San Diego Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies.
In her negotiations with Trump, Sheinbaum has not been as aggressive as Canada, and has “spoken of cooperation, collaboration, but not subordination. She’s done it in a very cool tone,” he added.
Trump’s proposed tariffs of 25% on Mexican goods could “do great damage to Mexico,” McNeece added. More than 82% of Mexico’s exports go to the U.S., according to government data.
“For the most part, Mexican people will rally around Sheinbaum, but there will be great concern,” he said.
Meanwhile, in Canada, support for the country’s Liberal Party surged late last month, after Trump’s tussle with the country. The Liberals wiped out a 26-point Conservative Party lead within six weeks, CBC News reported.
While the Mexican president and Canada’s ruling party enjoy favorable opinion polls, Trump’s popularity at home is in the doldrums.
According to the most recent Gallup poll, taken in mid-February, Trump’s approval rating stands at 45%, a slip of two points from the month before. That’s still higher than his first-term approval rating of 41%, but well below the 61% average of U.S. presidents in the first quarter of their term.
The White House did not comment on whether Trump’s tariffs have spurred a swell of nationalism in Canada and Mexico or on the drop in Trump’s approval rating.
Trump has taken frequent jabs at Canada, and even threatened to annex it.
“I think Canada would be much better off being the 51st state,” he said during his Super Bowl interview last month. In December, he jabbed at Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, calling him “governor” of the “great state of Canada.”
Canadians are not having it. A Leger poll taken from Feb. 28 to March 2 found 85% of Canadians reject Trump’s annexation proposal.
Carney echoed that sentiment in his victory speech, declaring that Canada “never, ever, will be part of America in any way, shape, or form.”
“A wave of nationalism has swept the country that I’ve never seen before,” said Colin Robertson, a former Canadian diplomat and fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute.
“The catalytic external event was Mr. Trump, and the way he has proceeded since taking office on January the 20th with these tariffs on Canada, which Canadians feel are not justified,” Robertson said.
Robertson said the swell of patriotism is palpable in Canada.
“This year, for the first time ever, going down streets mid-February… people had put flags in their windows, which is unlike Canadians,” he said. Canadian grocery stores “identify where the goods are coming from, and if it comes from the States, people aren’t buying them.”
Carney, who is still a relative unknown in Canada, would be the “beneficiary” of that swell of patriotism, Robertson said.
Carney’s ascent in Canada − he’s set to replace the unpopular Prime Minister Trudeau in the coming days − came as voters rated him more competent to square off against Trump than his political rivals, including Pierre Poilievre, the leader of Canada’s Conservative Party.
In Ontario, conservative Doug Ford won reelection as premier (akin to a U.S. governor) last month on the same question: Who was best equipped to counter Trump’s tariffs.
Last month, Poilievre steered the Conservatives into a Trump-inspired rebrand, unveiling the slogan “Canada First.”
Elon Musk, Trump’s multibillionaire lieutenant, appeared to endorse him in January. The Liberal Party, in response, released a video showing the close similarities between Poilievre’s statements and those of Trump. (While Carney’s Liberals lead in the recent Ipsos poll, a Nanos Research poll released Tuesday showed the Conservatives ahead by one percentage point.)
An election date hasn’t been set. “Mr. Poilievre has modeled his campaign style on Mr. Trump and the Republicans, highly negative and critical,” said Robertson. “Suddenly, when the country gets attacked, the people expect political leadership to rally around.”
