Nov 5, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) and Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) meet on the field after Eagles win at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Eric Hartline/Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Philadelphia Eagles QBs Jalen Hurts (left finger/concussion) and Kenny Pickett (ribs) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Date/Time: Sunday, 1:00 pm Eastern
Philadelphia Eagles starting quarterback Jalen Hurts was sidelined through Week 17’s first two practices by a Week 16 concussion. Although Philadelphia’s No. 2 quarterback Kenny Pickett is dealing with a ribs issue of his own, Pickett told reporters he took first-team repetitions on Thursday Pickett is ready to start against the Dallas Cowboys.
Dallas’ pass defense ranks second in expected points added (EPA) allowed per play (-0.122) among NFL teams in Weeks 12-16.
With Pickett under center in quarters two, three and four last week, only Nos. 1 and 2 wide receivers A.J. Brown (nine) and DeVonta Smith (six) earned more than one target. Dallas’ star cornerbacks, perimeter cornerback DaRon Bland and slot defensive back Jourdan Lewis, make for stiff competition but Pickett’s condensed target tree keeps Brown and Smith in the respective top 24 and top 36 conversation, positionally. Pickett is a low-end QB2 if active.
Philadelphia No. 3 quarterback Tanner McKee will serve as Pickett’s game-day backup. Among 33 NFL quarterbacks with at least 75 preseason dropbacks in the 2023 and 2024 preseasons combined, McKee ties for fifth in average time to throw (2.62), ranks fourth in past-the-sticks throwing rate (46.9 percent), 24th in yards per passing attempt (5.8) and 27th in completion rate (57.0 percent), per ProFootballFocus. McKee would surely turn the ball over with ease if thrust into the starting lineup but his fearless playing style could facilitate WR4/5 outings for Brown and Smith in admittedly an unideal circumstance.
Fantasy managers faced with starting Pickett this week should instead stream New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye, who faces a Los Angeles Chargers’ pass defense allowing 0.134 EPA per play, the eighth-most among NFL teams in Weeks 12-16.
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Green Bay Packers WR Christian Watson (knee) @ Minnesota Vikings
Date/Time: Sunday, 4:05 pm Eastern
Green Bay Packers No. 1 wide receiver Christian Watson suffered a Week 16 knee injury and was unable to practice on Wednesday and Thursday this week. Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur gave reporters a qualified response when fielding questions about Watson’s status, saying, “we got good news on him. It’s more just a bruise…. Still gotta be able to function. We’ll see how he practices this week.” LaFleur’s “more just a bruise” caveat speaks only to the primary problem (eg. a bruise) but leaves room for other injury involvement or perhaps a severe bruise (contusion). Given Watson’s current inability to practice, he appears unlikely to face the Minnesota Vikings in Week 17.
Green Bay’s ability to limit Minnesota’s passing-game productivity is hampered by No. 1 cornerback Jaire Alexander’s (PCL sprain) expected absence. The game’s fantasy-friendly 48.5-point over/under ties for Week 17’s third-highest, per ProFootballFocus’ Scores & Schedule.
Among NFL teams in Weeks 12-16, Minnesota has allowed a league-high 34 explosive pass plays to opposing wide receivers (34) while allowing the 13th-most yards per coverage snap (6.44). Green Bay wide receivers Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks are all WR3-viable if Watson sits. Minnesota’s tight end-coverage unit likewise ties for the fourth-most explosive pass plays allowed (24) during that span, elevating Green Bay tight end Tucker Kraft to the mid-to-high TE1 ranks.
Miami Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle (knee) @ Cleveland Browns
Date/Time: Sunday, 4:05 pm Eastern
Miami Dolphins No. 2 wide receiver Jaylen Waddle returned to practice as a limited participant on Thursday, as he rehabilitates a likely MCL sprain. Per Doctor of Physical Therapy (DPT) Adam Hutchison’s 2023 Injury Report, wide receivers average a 32.8 percent fantasy production dip after returning from a one-week, MCL-related absence. He is a borderline WR3/4 if he faces the Cleveland Browns.
Among NFL teams in Weeks 12-16, Cleveland’s pass defense allows the 11th-most EPA per play (0.100), ties for the 10th-most yards allowed per coverage snap (6.48) and allows the 12th-highest explosive pass play rate (15.2 percent).
Cleveland’s fantasy-friendly defense struggles to cover all three fantasy-relevant pass-catcher positions. Miami running back De’Von Achance and tight end Jonnu Smith should have week-winning ceilings. The matchup should boost struggling No. 1 wide receiver Tyreek Hill’s prospects as well. Smith can be used as a flex-pivot for Waddle, as can Kraft, who is mentioned in Watson’s section above. Wide receiver-needy fantasy managers should consider available Green Bay wide receivers in Waddle’s stead.
Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson (back/foot) @ New York Giants
Date/Time: Sunday, 1:00 pm Eastern
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson has been sidelined through two Week 17 practices by back and foot injuries. A source tells ESPN’s Stephen Holder that Richardson’s Friday practice participation is “critical” for determining his Week 17 status. The 7-8 Colts remain in the hunt for a playoff spot and the New York Giants’ defense is practically tailor-made to accentuate Richardson’s strong arm and elite rushing traits.
New York lost interior defender Dexter Lawrence to a season-ending, dislocated elbow in Week 13. Among NFL teams in Weeks 14-16, New York ranks 29th in both EPA allowed per pass play (0.297) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (18.9 percent), ties for 26th in missed run-defense tackles (20) and 27th in explosive run plays allowed (12).
Richardson is a high-upside QB1 if active. As mentioned in Hurts’ section above, Maye makes for an ideal QB1 replacement if Richardson is inactive. Quarterback-needy fantasy managers may also be able to stream Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix or blitz-beating Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young, who faces the blitz-happy Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa Bay could be without No. 1 cornerback Jamel Dean (knees).
Los Angeles Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins (knee) and RB Gus Edwards (ankle) @ New England Patriots
Date/Time: Saturday, 1:00 pm Eastern
Los Angeles Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins has a chance to return from injured reserve this week, having spent the last four games sidelined by an MCL sprain. Dobbins peculiarly failed to practice on Thursday after participating in a limited capacity on Tuesday and Wednesday. He is officially questionable to play. No. 2 running back Gus Edwards (ankle) has been ruled out.
Among NFL teams in Weeks 12-16, the New England Patriots’ run defense ranks 23rd in EPA allowed per play (-0.006), 28th in average depth of tackle (4.55) and 29th in yards allowed before contact per rushing attempt (1.8).
Among NFL teams in Weeks 12-16, New England’s running back-coverage unit ranks 25th in EPA allowed per play (0.122), 13th in yards allowed per coverage rate (5.87), seventh in explosive pass plays allowed rate (7.3 percent), fourth in catch rate allowed (65.1 percent) and first in forced incompletion rate (18.4 percent).
Los Angeles is currently a 4.0-point road favorite, signaling a run-heavy game script. If Dobbins is active, he profiles as a volume-based RB2 with a fantasy-friendly matchup.
If Dobbins is ruled inactive, three-down rookie Kimani Vidal likely splits rushing work with No. 4 running back Hassan Haskins. Both players would be RB4-viable though potentially touchdown-dependent. Vidal would benefit from a competitive game script, operating as the team’s passing-down specialist.
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