March 15, 2025

Here’s what you need to know:
In the normal course of business, a “clean” CR — one that keeps the government on its current spending course — is not a heavy lift. But Speaker Mike Johnson and House Republicans have teed up a “dirty” CR, one that includes poison pills that caused every Democratic member in the House, save one, to oppose it. (After passing the bill, Johnson adjourned the House, sending lawmakers home — ending any possibility for good-faith negotiation before federal funding runs out.)
The GOP’s unclean CR would keep the government operating through September. But it gives a green light for Trump and Elon Musk to continue on the path that’s been crashing the stock market and eviscerating the functions of major government agencies, while kicking thousands of federal workers to the curb. 
According to progressive budget watchers, the Republican CR boosts Pentagon funding by more than $12 billion. On the non-defense side, it shifts $3.5 billion to the Department of Homeland Security, as it likely strips funding away from Head Start and Community Health Centers. 

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(The increase to the military comes as Trump rattles his saber at Panama and Greenland. The DHS boost would fuel ICE arrests, which this week included an effort to deport a permanent resident, with a green card, over accusations he has undermined America’s national security by protesting on behalf of Palestine  onat Columbia University.)

More consequentially, the bill would:
The bill also does not advance the Democrats’ top priority in these CR negotiations — which is forcing Trump to actually spend the money legally appropriated by Congress. In fact, the administration, including Vice President J.D. Vance, whipped House Republicans to pass the CR by promising that the administration would keep using a strategy called “impoundment” to claw back funding it doesn’t like and to continue to shut down whole swaths of government. 

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Impoundment appears to be both illegal, under the Nixon-era Impoundment Control Act, as well as unconstitutional, because the power of the purse is invested in Congress. Nevertheless, Republican Rep. Chip Roy, for one, praised the CR on Tuesday because it “allows for the president to use impoundment.” 
To recap: This is CR is a MAGAfied spending bill that increases funding for Trump’s priorities, decreases Congress’ power to check the executive branch, cuts funding for Democratic priorities, and will embolden Trump and Musk’s rolling shutdown of agencies from the U.S. Agency for International Development to the Department of Education.
Yet it may well pass. 
And that’s because Democrats — still shaken after their losses in the 2024 election — are petrified of being blamed for anything unpopular, much less a partial government shutdown.
Democrats in the Senate are all nominally opposed to the Republican CR. But Sen. John Fetterman, of Pennsylvania, has already come out saying he won’t join any effort to tank it, posting on X: “Voting to shut the government down will punish millions or risk a recession. I disagree with many points in the CR, but I will never vote to shut our government down.”
The hazards of a government shutdown are, indeed, real. It would create even more uncertainty for an economy that Trump’s erratic governance has placed on a shaky footing. And it would leave government employees without paychecks until the standoff is resolved. Worse: Trump would be in control of what essential functions of government remain in operation — offering new avenues for his anti-government hijinks.

But the notion that voters would blame Democrats for the shutdown — instead of Republicans who failed to negotiate in good faith, and pushed forward a bill they couldn’t pass on their own — is dubious. It is also true that previous government shutdowns have typically been short-lived and have typically ended with GOP extremists backing down to embrace a more-moderate path forward.
Instead of locking arms as a party however, Democrats in the Senate are reportedly trying to stage political kayfabe they think will extract them from a political pickle. One strategy would have party moderates provide the GOP with enough votes to reach the 60 needed to end debate on the CR, on the promise that Democrats could then put forward a competing bill as an amendment — a bill to fund the government at current levels, no strings attached for another 30 days. 
The outcome here, however, would be predictable. The Democratic bill would fail. And then the Republicans could ram through their unclean CR on a party-line majority vote. (In another post on X, Fetterman called this approach “total theater” that “is neither honest with constituents nor a winning argument.”)

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The outcome is still uncertain. Centrist Democrats including Virginia’s Mark Warner are speaking out against helping Republicans reach 60 votes, calling the CR “terrible deal” that Democrats should fight with “everything we’ve got.” However, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, according to numerous reports, is willing to give Republicans his vote to advance the bill. 

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