UNLV (10-3) has come a long way in the last two years with HC Barry Odom and OC Brennan Marion coaching the Running Rebels to their second consecutive Mountain West Championship game. Outside of the previously mentioned loss to Boise, UNLV’s only other blemish was a thrilling 44-41 OT loss to 9-3 ACC program Syracuse. Victories over Big-12 programs @Houston and @Kansas show just how far the Rebs have come, with UNLV’s offense becoming lethal between the 20’s, ranking 4th in marginal explosiveness and 3rd in IsoPPP. When the field is shortened, they struggle, ranking 118th with a 50.7% red zone touchdown rate. Their run defense is solid ranking 9th in EPA/rush. However, UNLV’s secondary is susceptible to getting beat over the top as they rank 129th in air yards per target (8.7) and 76th in passing explosiveness.
California (6-6) had a hot start winning their first three games with a 21-14 victory over @Auburn in Week 2 to hang their hat on. Cal went onto lose four consecutive games by a combined scoring margin of just nine points before taking three of their next four to achieve bowl eligibility. The Bears’ rushing offense lacks consistency, ranking 118th in EPA/rush and 125th in YAC, which is a problem since starting QB Fernando Mendoza is in the transfer portal and backup QB Chandler Rogers is questionable to play. Cal’s defense ranks 33rd in EPA/play and 27th in explosive play rate allowed, with their run D ranking a sterling 10th in yards per successful rush allowed.
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· Date: Wednesday, December 17, 2024
· Time: 9:00 PM EST
· Site: SoFi Stadium
· City: Los Angeles, CA
· TV/Streaming: ESPN
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*odds courtesy of BetMGM
This game actually opened with Cal favored by -1.5/-120 but has since flipped sides to UNLV -3/-145. With Cal QB Mendoza out, the total has plummeted from 51.5 to a low of 47.5.
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Cal is one of the more pass-oriented Power Four programs, ranking 115th in standard downs run rate and 101st in rush rate on passing downs. With Chandler Rogers’ availability highly in question we’ve already seen a major shift in UNLV’s favor as prospective bettors line up to fade CJ Harris. I’m laying the -3 and backing the Running Rebels over Cal.”
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