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Holding the EU council presidency for six months, will Tusk’s camp get the presidency too?
News Based on facts, either observed and verified directly by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk (L) and outgoing Polish President Andrzej Duda (R). [EPA-EFE/Leszek Szymanski]
As 2024 draws to a close, Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government expects 2025 to be eventful as it assumes the six-month presidency of the Council of the EU and presidential elections that will likely see Tusk’s camp take full power in the country.
Poland, which previously held the EU presidency in 2011 when Tusk was also prime minister, has decided to make security, including military, internal, energy, and energy security, the key priority of its upcoming six-month tenure.
“[These are] the main conditions [needed] for the European Union to regain its full competitiveness, protection of various groups of our citizens, honest competitiveness in which Europe really has a chance to win with everyone in the world”, Tusk said in early December.
Security, in the broadest sense of the word, has been the main driver of Tusk’s government policies since he returned to power after the 2023 elections. Tusk has increased his country’s defence spending to over 4% of GDP this year, with the prospect of reaching 4.7% next year.
Internally, there is a consensus in Poland about the presidency’s priorities, with PiS supporting the focus on security, according to PiS MEP Bogdan Rzońca.
“It is crucial that the government does not waste the opportunity for Poland, and instead of technical support for the agenda, it focuses on specific, ambitious goals,” he told Euractiv, adding that as an opposition MEP, he would closely monitor the implementation of the presidency’s priorities.
Traditionally pro-transatlantic, Warsaw will seek to maintain strong ties with the US despite the presidential transition.
“If we expect certain changes or turbulence in geopolitics and the international situation, then both Europe and Poland should effectively take care of the best possible transatlantic relations,” Tusk said last month.
Although the previous conservative PiS (Law and Justice, ECR) government was more in line with Trump, Tusk demonstrated during his tenure as European Council president that he would not easily yield to his namesake.
A continuation of the European Union’s support for Ukraine is also expected under Poland’s leadership as the country has remained one of Kyiv’s staunchest supporters since Russia’s invasion, despite some historical and trade differences.
Increased EU leadership
Experts point out that the political crises engulfing Germany and France make Poland’s presidency role even more important and position it as a natural EU leader.
“As neither Germany nor France has a fully functional government, and it will likely not have in the coming months, it is Poland that has a chance to be a true leader of Europe,” policy marketing expert Mirosław Oczkoś told Euractiv.
According to the expert, Tusk’s charisma and the reputation of a strong and reliable leader he built across EU Capitals as president of the European Council – a position he held between 2014 and 2019 – may also prove useful.
Oczkoś already told Euractiv Poland earlier this year that he believed Tusk had all the qualities to become Europe’s key statesman and has now said that reality had proven him right.
On your marks, get set…
The second major challenge awaiting Poland in 2025 is the presidential election, which is expected to be held around May and will coincide with the Polish EU presidency.
Outgoing President Andrzej Duda concluded his second term, and under Polish law, he could not run for another one, so his PiS party was forced to seek another candidate, nominating the little-known Karol Nawrocki, the Polish Institute of National Remembrance (IPN) head.
Officially, Nawrocki runs as a civic candidate, as his post prohibits him from any partisan engagement, but he is openly endorsed by PiS.
However, Rafał Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw, nominated by Tusk, is currently leading the polls. Trzaskowski has already run for president in 2020, narrowly losing to Duda in the second round.
The presidential elections have also proven that despite a joint goal to keep PiS away from power, the disparities persist within the ruling coalition.
While Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO, EPP) wanted the coalition to have a common candidate, only two of the four coalition parties agreed on Trzaskowski.
The leader of Poland 2050 (Renew), speaker of parliament, Szymon Hołownia, announced his candidacy last month, and the Polish People’s Party (PSL, EPP) decided to support him. On the other hand, the Left (S&D) nominated its senator, Magdalena Biejat, the only woman in the race.
Tusk’s full power at home?
For Tusk, the elections are crucial because they can give him the full power in Poland that he enjoyed for much of his previous term as prime minister, when Bronisław Komorowski, nominated by his Civic Platform (EPP) party, was the president between 2010 and 2015.
Since the Tusk-led coalition came to power a year ago, Duda, who was often accused of favouring his PiS party, has resisted key government policies, including those aimed at restoring the independence of the country’s judiciary. He has vetoed laws or referred them to the PiS-dominated Constitutional Tribunal.
The elections are equally important for the PiS, defending its last bastion of power against Tusk’s camp.
A victory for Nawrocki—though unlikely at this stage—would not only prove that the party is still capable of winning, but it would also set the stage for its fight to regain power in Poland in the 2027 general election.
“The 2025 elections will be the most important for Poland since the fall of communism in 1989,” Oczkoś told Euractiv.
According to the expert, the presidential vote would decide the future of the country’s two main political heavyweight fighters: Tusk and PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński, whose parties have dominated Polish politics over the last two decades.
But despite the fairly clear polls, “no one should assume that these elections are a foregone conclusion,” the expert warns, pointing out that Nawrocki still has a chance to win.
[Edited by Charles Szumski/Alice Taylor-Braçe]
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