Sir Keir Starmer has been in Kyiv to sign a new 100-year deal pledging the UK’s “steadfast support” to Ukraine. It comes days before Donald Trump returns to the White House, throwing up new challenges for the prime minister and Kyiv’s allies.
Thursday 16 January 2025 20:39, UK
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With just days to go until Donald Trump returns as US president (the inauguration happens on Monday), world leaders like Keir Starmer are clearly “having to tread carefully” with their language about him.
For the prime minister, everything from the war in Ukraine to criticism from Elon Musk requires incredibly disciplined language.
Whatever happens, he knows he “cannot upset Donald Trump”, says our US correspondent Mark Stone.
Brits ‘blind sided’ by Musk’s attacks
The British embassy has been “working as hard as it can to be on good terms with Trump”, says Mark, but there’s no doubt Starmer’s incoming US ambassador Peter Mandelson has a “difficult job” on his hands.
Mark says the Brits were “blind sided” by Elon Musk’s sudden wave of attacks upon the PM, just as they weren’t expecting him to “effectively become the co-president, as he seems to be”.
The US-UK “special relationship” goes back to the Second World War.
But Trump’s so unpredictable that some even wonder “how quickly he could turn on Britain”.
This ain’t no Christmas romcom
Whatever happens, though, Starmer has to do his bit to stay on side.
“I’m reminded of that scene in Love Actually,” admits Mark, “where the character played by Hugh Grant stands up to the American president at that news conference in Downing Street.”
“There’s no way any world leader will stand up like that” to Mr Trump.
The Politics Hub is signing off for the evening after a day dominated by foreign affairs ahead of a huge few days.
Sir Keir Starmer has been in Ukraine to stress the UK’s ongoing support before the return of Donald Trump to the White House, and the uncertainty that brings about America’s backing for Kyiv.
Back in Westminster, the government has announced a series of local inquiries into grooming gangs – but remains under pressure from some MPs and victims to commission a national probe.
You can catch up on the main things you need to know via the key points above, and we’ll be back tomorrow morning.
Former British diplomat Lord Ricketts has joined Sophy Ridge to discuss the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas.
He describes it as a “precious moment of opportunity”, but warns it remains “fragile and very, very difficult” – with the Israeli cabinet yet to sign off on it ahead of its planned enforcement on Sunday.
And he says even if it does come into force on time, there remain unresolved issues that mean long-term peace remains out of reach.
There’s no guarantee that Israeli forces will pull out of the whole of Gaza and no answer as to who will “maintain law and order”.
“And then there is this massive issue of reconstruction,” he adds.
“Hundreds of billions of dollars are going to have to be found. It’ll have to come from the wealthy Gulf Arab countries, I think.”
He also thinks Britain will have a role to play in the humanitarian process once the war ends – if it does.
But he warns: “All these big difficult issues that have been there for decades, they have not been eased at all by this war.”
Sophy Ridge now turns shadow home secretary Chris Philp on to his party’s leader Kemi Badenoch, who have her first major speech of 2025 earlier today.
She used it to acknowledge mistakes the Tories made while in office, including immigration being too high and not coming up with a plan for economic growth before taking the country out of the EU.
Mr Philp says she was “very, very open and honest” but doesn’t say she should have apologised.
He also dismisses the suggestion that she needs to come up with some policy ideas – something Ms Badenoch’s said she won’t be doing until we get much closer to the next election.
The Tories will first “develop proper, credible plans” for how any policy ideas would even be implemented, Mr Philp says.
Reform UK may be above them in some polls at this point, but he says they’re only offering “eye-catching slogans”.
“I don’t think they have or will develop these detailed plans that are needed to actually fix these very difficult problems,” he adds.
Joining Sophy Ridge to discuss the home secretary’s announcement about grooming gangs is Chris Philp, Yvette Cooper’s Tory opponent.
Ms Cooper announced five government-backed local inquiries into grooming gangs – and Mr Philp told her in the Commons they were “totally inadequate” and a full national probe was needed.
He tells Sophy it’s a call being made by Labour MPs like Sarah Champion and Dan Walton, as well as Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham.
Many victims also desire a national inquiry, he says, “so the truth can come out, and the public can have confidence”.
Perpetrators yet to be caught and convicted should be jailed and wherever possible should be deported, Mr Philp adds.
He also says public officials – including police officers, local councillors, and people in the CPS – who “ignored this or covered it up” should be prosecuted for “offensive misconduct in public office”.
The idea of the UK providing troops to a peacekeeping force in Ukraine won’t convince those who think the prime minister has sounded anything but credible on defence since coming to power, says our security and defence editor Deborah Haynes.
Sir Keir Starmer came to Kyiv today “with lots of warm words and strong language about the need to take action”, she says, but he’s yet to answer big questions about the military back home.
Most notably, says Deborah, he “is yet to say when the UK is going to increase its defence spending to 2.5% of national income”, at a time when Donald Trump is saying NATO allies should be spending double that.
“There are real questions for the PM whether he can make any meaningful offering to some kind of security force on the ground given his own army is undermanned, underequipped, and very much in need of additional investment,” Deborah adds.
“When it comes to his own record on defence, people are asking questions as to whether he really is credible.”
What would this peacekeeping force be?
Deborah says “there have been talks behind the scenes for over a year now about this idea of some kind of security force” in Ukraine.
It could involve French, British, and other NATO troops on the ground.
The aim would be to “provide the security guarantees Ukraine needs to even contemplate Russian troops holding on to territory”, which some have suggested would be part of any peace deal.
Sir Keir Starmer “all but confirmed” the UK will have a role in any NATO peacekeeping forces deployed to Ukraine to help enforce a peace deal with the Russians during his Sky News interview today.
Our political editor Beth Rigby spent the day with the prime minister in Kyiv and said the visit came as talk of a ceasefire deal ramps up before Donald Trump’s inauguration next week.
In a message to potentially nervous voters back home, the PM said British involvement is predicated on the fact that “the threat to our security starts on this border [in Ukraine]”.
“All of this so significant, just five days before the inauguration,” says Beth, which will throw up all kinds of challenges for Sir Keir.
Those include Ukraine’s possible future inside NATO, something it seems Trump will oppose; the UK’s deal to hand over the Chagos Islands, which Joe Biden had signed off but is now on hold; and of course the constant criticism coming Starmer’s way from Elon Musk.
Sir Keir knows there’s a “new reality” on the horizon but knows “strong diplomatic ties” with Washington remain vital.
“He definitely doesn’t want to go toe to toe with Trump,” she says, even regarding Elon Musk.
After trying to get the prime minister to open up a bit about the challenges posed by Elon Musk, our political editor Beth Rigby asks him whether he’s confident he can have positive ties with Donald Trump.
Sir Keir Starmer says they’ve established a “good relationship” since meeting last year in New York, once again referring to a dinner they enjoyed together at Trump Tower.
Asked what the president-elect’s greatest strengths are, the PM hails his “resilience” after staging an “incredible political comeback”.
He repeats he’s sure of a “constructive” relationship when he’s in office, adding: “That’s the right thing for our two countries.”
Our political editor Beth Rigby turns the prime minister’s attention to two diplomatic deals – one for a ceasefire in Gaza, the other for Britain to hand the Chagos Islands over to Mauritius.
Sir Keir Starmer welcomes the deal that would end hostilities between Israel and Hamas, saying it’s “long overdue”.
On the Chagos agreement, which has been criticised by the Tories despite them kicking off the talks, he admits it’s now on hold ahead of the Trump inauguration next week.
The deal – designed to guarantee the future of a UK-US military base on the island – had been given the green light by Joe Biden last year.
Sir Keir said it was “perfectly reasonable” for Donald Trump’s team to look over it, but maintained it was a good deal.
With Donald Trump’s return to the White House next week, future American support for Ukraine is up in the air.
In recent months, we’ve seen Western allies start to speak about putting Kyiv in the strongest possible position for negotiations with Russia, rather than simply of seeking outright victory in the war.
Speaking to our political editor Beth Rigby in Kyiv, Sir Keir Starmer acknowledges the situation has changed since Mr Trump’s election win, but believes any talks about what happens next “have to be led” by Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy.
“Whether you’re negotiating or you’re continuing to fight, being in the strongest possible position is really important,” he said.
One possibility mooted has been a deal that would involve a NATO peacekeeping force to help Ukraine deter any future Russian aggression.
Should that come to pass, the PM said the UK “will play our full part”.
‘We cannot allow’ Putin to come again
“The worst thing could happen here is a cessation of hostilities without that deterrence, only for Putin in a year or two or three to come again,” the prime minister added.
“We cannot allow that to happen.”
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