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It is increasingly clear that both sides of the Atlantic have a key strategic divergence that could further widen the gap between Washington and Warsaw: Ukraine. Or rather, Russia.
Analysis Based on factual reporting, although it Incorporates the expertise of the author/producer and may offer interpretations and conclusions.
President Donald Trump delivers a speech during Three Seas Initiative Summit at Warsaw Royal Castle, Poland on July 6th, 2017. [Wojtek Laski/Getty Images]
Languages: Bulgarian
BRUSSELS – As Trump’s ties with Russia warm, one of Washington’s closest European allies risks drifting away.
When the United States celebrated 150 years of its Declaration of Independence in 1926, Poland sent over history’s greatest birthday card.
The “Polish Declarations of Admiration and Friendship”—111 hefty volumes of signatures and greetings from nearly one-sixth of the country’s population at the time—thanked the Americans for providing wartime aid and praised volunteer pilots for fighting with a freshly independent country against the Soviets in 1920.
Fast-forward a hundred years and two World Wars later, Washington’s model ally in Europe is questioning whether their ties still have the same meaning to the current Trump administration as they used to.
A sense of eeriness
Faced with a radically different US foreign policy, Warsaw had thought its sales pitch to Trump as the exemplary defence spender in NATO would be enough to secure the goodwill of the new administration.
It does still work, with Trump name-checking the Poles frequently, however, it has so far not translated into any strong practical commitments.
Poland’s political class, rattled by Trump’s erratic course on Ukraine and thaw with Russia, is caught in a schizophrenic loop: It is painfully conscious that the country is on the frontline of Europe’s most significant security threat and depends on US support but slowly realises it is increasingly on its own.
A recent survey by Rzeczpospolita showed that only 32.7% of respondents see the US as a reliable partner, while 46.3% expressed a lack of trust under Trump’s leadership. Among people with higher education—as many as 56%—did not consider Trump’s America a trustworthy ally.
Results of this and other polls reflect a general feeling of concern in the public debate about Trump’s potential impact on the country’s future security.
After Trump decided to cut Ukraine off from vital intelligence sharing, which complicated the use of US military equipment like the Patriot or the HIMARS precision-guided missile systems, Poland entered a frantic debate over what could such a step mean for its own arsenal of mostly US-manufactured weapons.
Polish diplomats also cite increasing concerns that Trump could make a U-turn on an earlier commitment to maintain US troops in the country.
They are also increasingly concerned that Trump, by some perceived to be too pro-Russia in peace negotiations, could be less responsive to warnings about a future Russian threat.
“What would concern me most is if the drawdown or full removal of American troops in Poland becomes part of a potential deal between the Trump administration and Russia,” Paweł Markiewicz, director of the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) Washington office, told Euractiv.
“If this were the case, the decision would be the equivalent of President Biden’s decision to pull American troops out of Afghanistan – it would signal to Putin that influence over Central and Eastern Europe is up in the air,” Markiewicz said.
While Poland will continue to look to work with Washington as much as possible, “it’s also seeking other avenues with regional partners as a means of repositioning the transatlantic relationship by showing the added value as an important bridge”, he added.
Not by chance did Warsaw start hedging its bets for more security cooperation closer to home, increasingly with European partners, and by more actively supporting EU defence initiatives.
A series of mixed messages
Trump’s first-term entourage had close ties with the then PiS government, which made in power and its top officials rejoice about the victory in the hope ties would now even further expand.
However, as Polish officials from both sides of the political spectrum received shout-outs at America’s Conservative Political Action Conference in February, the contrast with previous occasions was even starker.
Polish President Andrzej Duda was snubbed and left waiting in the corridors until he met Trump for only a fraction of the time that was granted to other European leaders, such as France’s Emmanuel Macron, UK’s Keir Starmer or Ireland’s Michaél Martin weeks later.
Poland’s centre-right government, meanwhile, is increasingly open about its dismay with Washington, with the latest war of words over Starlink access for Ukraine marking an unprecedented episode in both countries’ ties.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who had been described by some as best placed to be Europe’s ‘Trump whisperer’, has turned out to be anything but.
“True leadership means respect for partners and allies. Even for the smaller and weaker ones. Never arrogance. Dear friends, think about it,” Tusk said last week in his starkest rebuke of Washington so far.
Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, a staunch transatlanticist, but also a man who does not shy away from confrontation, is in increasingly bad cards with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Elon Musk after he publicly feuded with them about Starlink access for Ukraine.
That his wife, US historian and journalist Anne Applebaum, knows a thing or two about modern-day autocrats and displays a sharp tone of criticism of Trump’s entourage might not be too helpful.
Repairing Europe’s overall increasingly broken ties with its transatlantic partner seems also rather low on Warsaw’s agenda.
With Poland currently being the holder of the bloc’s six-month rotating presidency, EU diplomats have wondered why Warsaw did not move to organise a Ukraine- or US-related informal summit.
“We all get why [Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia] Meloni has taken up the initiative; what we don’t get is why Poland, a close US ally, hasn’t,” one of the EU diplomats said, adding it can’t be solely as related to the upcoming president election campaign.
Unwelcome sales pitch
It is increasingly clear that both sides of the Atlantic have a key strategic divergence that could widen the already widening gap between Washington and Warsaw: Ukraine. Or rather, Russia.
There is growing anxiety in Poland, like in other Eastern Flank frontline countries, that Russia could swiftly regroup after peace negotiations brokered by Trump and pose an even bigger threat.
While Tusk floated the idea last week that Poland could develop its own nuclear weapons or jump under France’s “nuclear umbrella”, Duda, in an interview with the Financial Times, called on the Trump administration to transfer US nuclear weapons to Polish territory as a deterrent against future Russian aggression.
Unsurprisingly, the request is not going down well in Moscow. Nor did it in Washington.
Trump’s Vice-President JD Vance pushed back against the idea on Fox News, saying he “would be shocked if he was supportive of nuclear weapons extending further east into Europe.”
This idea, it seems, just as Warsaw’s past push for a new military base in Poland dubbed ‘Fort Trump’, is likely to fall flat.
[VP]
Languages: Bulgarian
Updated: 20-03-2025
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