Every week for the duration of the 2024 NFL regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide timely updates to the league’s ever-evolving playoff picture − typically starting after Sunday afternoon’s late games and then moving forward for the remainder of the week (through Monday’s and Thursday’s games or Saturday’s, if applicable.)
What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference’s seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on Sunday, Jan. 5.
Here’s where things stand with Week 17 of the 2024 season underway:
x – 1. Detroit Lions (13-2), NFC North leaders: Last week, they were in a three-way tie atop the conference and deadlocked for the division lead with Minnesota. But Philadelphia’s Week 16 defeat makes it increasingly likely the Lions and Vikings will be playing for all the important regular-season marbles in Week 18. Winning out gives the Lions everything they want, including home-field advantage. So would a win at San Francisco on Monday night combined with a Minnesota loss to Green Bay. Remaining schedule: at 49ers, vs. Vikings
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y – 2. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3), NFC East champions: Despite being down to their third-string quarterback, they locked down the division crown Sunday and, likely, the No. 2 seed. Probably not much to play for in Week 18 aside from possibly the single-season rushing record for Saquon Barkley. Remaining schedule: vs. Giants
3. Los Angeles Rams (10-6), NFC West leaders: Saturday night’s escape from Arizona could mean a division title if the strength-of-victory tiebreaker unfolds LA’s way Sunday. “Honestly, I have no idea,” WR Puka Nacua said of the clinching scenario when asked on NFL Network after the triumph. “They said we had a game at SoFi Stadium Saturday night, so that’s what I showed up for.” Barring that, there’s a Week 18 meeting against Seattle that could still decide matters. Neither the Rams nor Seahawks have a pathway to a wild-card berth. Remaining schedule: vs. Seahawks
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7), NFC South leaders: Their rout of the Panthers moves them back into first place for the moment, though Atlanta would reclaim it by winning Sunday night – yet that could also open a wild-card path to the Bucs. Remaining schedule: vs. Saints
x – 5. Minnesota Vikings (13-2), wild card No. 1: Like Detroit, they control their own potentially high-yield fate – win out, and the NFC North and No. 1 seed are Minnesota’s. Remaining schedule: vs. Packers, at Lions
x – 6. Green Bay Packers (11-4), wild card No. 2: Getting swept by Detroit and losing once already to Minnesota relegated the Pack to wild-card status … though Monday’s whitewash of the Saints was the latest reminder that this might actually be the last NFC North team you want to see in January. But given Packers are guaranteed to open the playoffs on the road, it will be interesting to see how much they play their key players over the next two weeks given the limited upside to doing so. Remaining schedule: at Vikings, vs. Bears
7. Washington Commanders (10-5), wild card No. 3: A win in Week 17 puts Washington into the dance, but they’re now out of the NFC East race. A loss could be highly problematic in the tiebreaker space as it would open an alternate avenue for the Bucs, who beat Washington in Week 1. Remaining schedule: vs. Falcons, at Cowboys
8. Seattle Seahawks (9-7), in the hunt: If they and the Rams wind up 10-7, which would require a Seahawks win at LA in Week 18, the undetermined strength-of-victory tiebreaker will prove pivotal, likely in LA’s favor. But that assumes the Seahawks are not eliminated Sunday first after the Rams prevailed over the Cardinals. Remaining schedule: at Rams
9. Atlanta Falcons (8-7), in the hunt: The Bucs’ victory Sunday means the Falcons can’t wrap the division this week – and must win to remain ahead of Tampa Bay. Remaining schedule: at Commanders, vs. Panthers
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yz – 1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1), AFC West champions: By crushing Pittsburgh on Christmas, they secured home-field advantage and a first-round bye – and really two-plus weeks off in actuality depending on whom they want to play in what’s now a meaningless Week 18 contest for the champs. Remaining schedule: at Broncos, BYE
y – 2. Buffalo Bills (13-3), AFC East champions: They locked up the No. 2 seed by embarrassing the Jets on Sunday. Finishing second in the conference should still have meaning given the road to Super Bowl 59 could go through Western New York if the Chiefs lose their playoff opener. Buffalo won’t have to go on the road for a playoff game unless the AFC championship is staged in Kansas City. Remaining schedule: at Patriots
x – 3. Baltimore Ravens (11-5), AFC North leaders: Catching fire? Probably an understatement. The Steelers’ loss before Baltimore’s Christmas kickoff vaulted the Ravens atop the division, and their dominant win over Houston keeps them there. A win or tie in Week 18 clinches it. Remaining schedule: vs. Browns
y – 4. Houston Texans (9-7), AFC South champions: They rule a weak division for the second straight year, however Wednesday’s loss locked them into the fourth seed … which will likely mean a tough wild-card matchup, albeit in Houston, against an AFC North team. Remaining schedule: at Titans
x – 5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6), wild card No. 1: That’s three losses in a row, Wednesday’s flat performance against K.C. costing them first place in the AFC North. However they can capture the divisional title by winning in Week 18 if Baltimore also loses to Cleveland. Remaining schedule: vs. Bengals
x – 6. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6), wild card No. 2: Saturday’s rout of the Patriots locked Bolts into the field and ensures Jim Harbaugh has been a playoff participant in four of his five NFL seasons as a head coach. Yet, having lost to the Ravens and Steelers earlier this season, the Chargers will most likely be the sixth seed – and probably head to Baltimore or Pittsburgh for a rematch. Remaining schedule: at Raiders
7. Denver Broncos (9-7), wild card No. 3: They’ve had win-and-in scenarios in their past two games and lost both times. Still, one more victory – or tie – will advance Denver to the playoffs for the first time since they won Super Bowl 50 with Peyton Manning and Von Miller nearly nine years ago. The Broncos’ Week 18 game against Kansas City means basically nothing to the Chiefs – which could be a real advantage for Denver, which can do no better than the seventh seed. Remaining schedule: vs. Chiefs
8. Cincinnati Bengals (8-8), in the hunt: Still alive thanks to a four-game winning streak, including Saturday’s overtime thriller against Denver. Though they appear like the best team outside the postseason field, the Bengals still need the most help to get in, including at least one loss by the Dolphins after the Indianapolis Colts were eliminated Sunday. Cincinnati must also beat Pittsburgh in Week 18 and hope Denver loses again. Though the Bengals jumped Miami on Saturday, the Dolphins hold the tiebreaker (AFC record) that would move them past Cincinnati if they continue winning. Remaining schedule: at Steelers
9. Miami Dolphins (7-8), in the hunt: Technically alive after winning in Week 16 and with a soft schedule on the way out. They advance if they win their final two games and the Broncos lose in Week 18. Remaining schedule: at Browns, at Jets
Detroit clinches NFC North and NFC’s No. 1 seed (first-round bye and home-field advantage) with:
▶ Win + Minnesota loss
Los Angeles Rams clinch NFC West with:
▶ Must clinch strength-of-victory tiebreaker over Seattle on Sunday
(Note: Rams secure strength-of-victory tiebreaker with 1½ or more wins from the following teams: Cleveland, Minnesota, San Francisco and Washington. A tie equates to a half-win in this formula.)
Washington clinches playoff berth with:
▶ Win or tie
Baltimore clinches AFC North with:
▶ Win or tie
Pittsburgh clinches AFC North with:
▶ Win + Baltimore loss
Denver clinches playoff berth with:
▶ Win or tie
▶ New York Giants
▶ Las Vegas Raiders
▶ New England Patriots
▶ Jacksonville Jaguars
▶ Tennessee Titans
▶ Cleveland Browns
▶ New York Jets
▶ Chicago Bears
▶ Carolina Panthers
▶ New Orleans Saints
▶ Dallas Cowboys
▶ San Francisco 49ers
▶ Arizona Cardinals
▶ Indianapolis Colts
x – clinched playoff berth
y – clinched division
z – clinched home-field advantage, first-round bye
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