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Bill Bender
The NFC North is the best division in the NFL through six weeks, and it delivers the best matchup in Week 7.
Is Detroit-Minnesota really better than the Super Bowl rematch between Kansas City and San Francisco? It’s not hard to sell.
All four teams in the division are 4-2 or better, and they’re the top four teams in the NFL in terms of positive point differential. Green Bay takes on one-loss Houston at Lambeau Field, and the Caleb Williams-led Bears are on a bye week.
MORE: Week 7 Power Rankings | Week 7 NFL picks against the spread
That leaves the stage to Minnesota, the surprising unbeaten team in the NFC under Kevin O’Connell with the combination of Sam Darnold, Aaron Jones, and Justin Jefferson leading the offense and a revamped defense under coordinator Brian Flores. Detroit, which is coming off a 47-9 victory at Dallas, can make another loud road statement under Dan Campbell in as many weeks. That also will show that while Aidan Hutchinson’s leg injury is heart-breaking, it will not hold the Lions back from another deep run in the NFC playoffs.
We think it will be the best game of the week. Of course, that 49ers-Chiefs matchup in the afternoon will be thrilling, too. We took the early “underdog” in that one, too.
Each week, we will pick NFL matchups straight up and against the spread. A look at our track record this season:
Here are our picks for Week 7:
NFL HQ: Live NFL scores | Updated NFL standings | Full NFL schedule
Thursday, 8:15 p.m., NBC/Peacock
It’s the Sean Payton Bowl. The former Saints coach returns to the Caesars Superdome, and that will be the storyline leading up to Thursday Night Football. Bo Nix is 2-1 as a starter on the road this season, and the Saints have rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler, who took four sacks in his first career start. The Broncos are second in the NFL with 22 sacks.
Pick: Broncos 20, Saints 17
MORE: Grading Spencer Rattler's starting debut | Chris Olave injury update
Sunday, 9:30 a.m., NFL Network
The Jaguars will stay in London after a blowout loss against the Bears. New England has failed to cover in five straight losses, but Drake Maye showed potential in his first start with three TDs. He also had two interceptions and took four sacks. These are two bad teams, but the Jaguars are a little better at run defense and have had a week to acclimate to London.
Pick: Jaguars 24, Patriots 19
MORE PATRIOTS: Grading Drake Maye's starting debut
MORE JAGS: Travis Etienne injury update | Why Jaguars are playing twice in London | Jaguars S says team showed ‘a lot of quit’
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Falcons have the look of an NFC contender, and Kirk Cousins continues to prove the franchise right so far. Cousins has been better on the road this season, but he is averaging 283.5 passing yards and has the support of the tag team of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. The Seahawks are stuck in a three-game losing streak and have failed to cover the spread in their past five games. Seattle is struggling against the run and with turnovers. That is a bad mix on the road.
Pick: Falcons 28, Seahawks 21
WEEK 7 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/ST | Kickers
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Bills are coming off a short week, and they should welcome being at home. Buffalo played four of its first six games on the road. They are 2-0 S/U at home, where they average 40.5 points per game. The Titans are improving under first-year coach Brian Callahan, and they have the top statistical defense (248.8 ppg.) in the league. Teams that are underdogs of 8.5 points or more are 2-2 S/U and 3-1 ATS this season.
Pick: Bills 31, Titans 20
MORE: Calvin Ridley goes on NSFW tirade after catch-less game | Will Levis takes out ball boy on scramble
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Battle of Ohio has been a tough one for Joe Burrow in the past. He is 1-5 S/U against the Browns, and Cincinnati needed a late TD to put away the Giants in Week 6. Cleveland is last in the NFL in total offense (240.2 ypg.) and has not scored more than 18 points in a game this season. Despite that rough track record in Cleveland, this might be the game that sparks some changes for the Browns when it comes to Deshaun Watson at quarterback.
Pick: Bengals 25, Browns 18
MORE: Joe Burrow's gutsy performance leads Bengals past Giants on SNF
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
This is a great matchup between two star quarterbacks. Houston’s C.J. Stroud has been a better road quarterback this season with the exception of the Week 3 loss at Minnesota. The Packers have covered four of the past five weeks, but Jordan Love will be tested by the Texans’ top-five pass defense. While this tracks to be a shootout, look for the total to be lower than expected. The Packers have more pressure in this game.
Pick: Packers 24, Texans 23
MORE: Dontayvion Wicks injury update
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Miami announced Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) is expected to return at some point this season, but that will not help the Dolphins this week. Miami had a bye week to figure out the offense with Tyler Huntley. Every Colts game has been decided by six points or less. Joe Flacco has seven TDs and one interception since taking over at quarterback, but Anthony Richardson (oblique) is close to returning. Will Jonathan Taylor (ankle) be back, too? The Dolphins play with desperation, but it isn’t quite enough.
Pick: Colts 24, Dolphins 21
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Hutchinson had 7.5 sacks this season, which matched the total for the rest of the team. The good news? Jared Goff is dealing. Goff is 36-of-43 for 607 yards, five TDs, and no interceptions the past two weeks. Minnesota had a bye week after its trip to London. The Vikings have an opportunity to pull ahead in the NFC North with a victory here, especially if they keep Sam Darnold clean. The Lions broke a five-game losing streak at Minnesota last season, and they start a new streak with a late TD here.
Pick: Lions 31, Vikings 28
MORE: Aidan Hutchinson injury update | Top trade targets to replace Hutchinson
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Eagles are 3-2, but you wouldn’t know it with the noise around coach Nick Sirianni. Philadelphia did not commit a turnover in Week 5, and Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley will need to get more out of their high-volume carries against the Giants. That interior matchup with Dexter Lawrence – who has seven sacks – will be pivotal. Brian Daboll is on an actual hot seat for a team that averages 10 points per game in three home losses.
Pick: Eagles 24, Giants 14
MORE EAGLES: Nick Sirianni explains why he talked trash to home fans after Week 6 win
MORE GIANTS: Will Giants fire Brian Daboll?
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., CBS
The Rams have been devastated by injuries, but they had a bye week to regroup around Matthew Stafford. The Raiders are one-dimensional with a running game that averages 79.5 yards per game, and every week there is a new piece of off-field drama. The Raiders are -6 in turnover margin the past two weeks, and just traded away Davante Adams. Maxx Crosby will have a few sacks, and this could be a backdoor cover game for Las Vegas.
Pick: Rams 23, Raiders 20
MORE: Maxx Crosby explains why he shoved Raiders assistant coach vs. Steelers
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., CBS
The Panthers have allowed 155.7 yards per game through a three-game losing streak, and that is bad news up against Jayden Daniels, who will be under less pressure than he was the past two weeks against Baltimore and Cleveland. The Commanders will bounce back at home, and Washington has hit the OVER in five of six games.
Pick: Commanders 30, Panthers 22
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
You’re going to hear the stat all week, but Andy Reid is 21-4 after a bye week as a head coach. That includes a 21-17 loss to Philadelphia in a Super Bowl rematch last season. Will the 49ers, who are getting healthy again around Brock Purdy and had a long layoff after Thursday Night Football, be a difference maker? The Chiefs will have a few wrinkles around Patrick Mahomes in this Super Bowl rematch. If the run defense holds — and it should given Chris Jones’ impact on the interior — then Kansas City will win in one-score fashion yet again. Mahomes is 4-0 in his career against the 49ers.
Pick: Chiefs 26, 49ers 24
MORE: Jordan Mason injury update | 49ers RB depth chart
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC Peacock
The Jets are coming off another short week, and the new-look coaching staff faces a challenge at Pittsburgh. Aaron Rodgers led the Packers to a victory against the Steelers in Super Bowl XLV, but he only started one game at Acrisure Stadium. The Steelers have forced three turnovers the past two weeks, and the run game has picked up around Najee Harris.
Pick: Steelers 23, Jets 17
Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN
Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield meet in a battle of Heisman Trophy winners. The Ravens are averaging 205.3 rushing yards per game, and they are on a four-game winning streak. Baltimore has won at Dallas and Cincinnati. Will Tampa Bay, which ranks second in the NFL with 29.7 points per game, turn this into an old-fashioned shootout? We think Jackson and Mayfield will put on a passing clinic, but Derrick Henry, who averages 6.5 yards per carry in the winning streak, will be the difference.
Pick: Ravens 33, Buccaneers 26
MORE RAVENS: Comparing Jayden Daniels’ and Lamar Jackson’s Week 6 stats
MORE BUCCANEERS: Baker Mayfield reacts to Texas players planting flag in Oklahoma jersey
Monday, 8:45 p.m., ESPN+
The Chargers have enjoyed an encouraging start under first-year coach Jim Harbaugh. Los Angeles has committed two turnovers in five games, and Justin Herbert (ankle) looks better with each week. The Cardinals have lost three of four, and Marvin Harrison Jr. (concussion) might be out. Arizona allows 153 rushing yards per game, which means Harbaugh will ride JK Dobbins to victory here.
Pick: Chargers 24, Cardinals 19
MORE CHARGERS: Jim Harbaugh briefly exits vs. Broncos with heart issue
MORE CARDINALS: Marvin Harrison Jr. injury update | James Conner injury update
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Bill Bender graduated from Ohio University in 2002 and started at The Sporting News as a fantasy football writer in 2007. He has covered the College Football Playoff, NBA Finals and World Series for SN. Bender enjoys story-telling, awesomely-bad 80s movies and coaching youth sports.
