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Bill Bender
Maybe Lions coach Dan Campbell will not leave it to a two-point conversion this time.
Remember that Week 17 controversy last year? Detroit scored the potential game-tying touchdown at Dallas, but Campbell decided to go for two. The Lions were penalized a controversial call when tackle Taylor Decker was ruled an ineligible receiver. The Cowboys were penalized on the second try but ultimately stopped the Lions on the third try for a 20-19 victory.
Since that game, both teams have gone on different trajectories. Detroit reached the NFC championship game and is creeping toward being a Super Bowl favorite in the NFC given San Francisco’s struggles. The Cowboys lost in the NFC divisional playoffs and have been hit-or-miss through a 3-2 start that includes two home losses. Would a victory here make Dallas an NFC favorite?
That is one of two games between teams with winning records this week. Baltimore and Washington — an exciting duel between quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels — is the other matchup between teams who are better than .500.
Each week, we will pick NFL matchups straight up and against the spread. A look at our track record this season:
Here are our picks for Week 6:
NFL HQ: Live NFL scores | Updated NFL standings | Full NFL schedule
Thursday, 8:15 p.m., NBC/Peacock
The 49ers rank second in the NFL in yards per game (407.4), but they are 0-2 S/U on the road. San Francisco has struggled in the red zone on offense. Will a Seattle defense that has allowed 35.5 points per game in losses to the Lions and Giants the past two weeks be the cure? Seattle is 1-4 ATS this season.
Pick: 49ers 24, Seahawks 20
MORE: Brock Purdy struggled when 49ers needed him most | Injuries killing 49ers ahead of daunting schedule
Sunday, 9:30 a.m., NFL Network
Are the Bears for real? Chicago has a plus-5 turnover ratio the past two weeks, and that has been a difference-maker for rookie quarterback Caleb Williams, who should continue to have success against Jacksonville’s league-worst pass defense (287.8 yards per game). There is risk of overhyping this matchup since the Jags got their first win, but stick with the Bears in what could be an unpredictable game in London.
Pick: Bears 29, Jaguars 24
MORE: DJ Moore, Caleb Williams remind Panthers of lopsided Bryce Young trade | Trevor Lawrence-Gabe Davis sideline spat
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Packers have been outscored 41-17 in the first half the past two weeks, and they will look to avoid a slow start against Arizona. The Cardinals blew a second-half lead at Buffalo and eked out a win vs. San Francisco on the road, so it’s on Green Bay to restore that Lambeau Field advantage. The Cardinals are 28th in rush defense, and the Packers will exploit that with Brandon Jacobs. Kyler Murray will continue the strong connection with Marvin Harrison Jr., who has four TDs and averages 16.4 yards per catch. A late rally will fall just short.
Pick: Packers 28, Cardinals 21
MORE: Xavier McKinney nears NFL-record INT streak
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Colts are 2-3, and their five games have been decided by a combined total of 19 points. They have been a hard team to gauge as a result. Joe Flacco averages 263.5 passing yards per game with five TDs and no interceptions. Will Indianapolis ride this out even if Anthony Richardson (oblique) is close to returning? The Titans are coming out of the bye week after a rough start that includes a minus-7 turnover ratio through four games. Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS this season.
Pick: Colts 30, Titans 27
MORE: Joe Flacco earns ‘Jamar Flaccson’ nickname after 21-yard scramble
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Patriots have lost two games by a combined total of eight points. New England is having trouble generating offense, and there is a chance Drake Maye will replace Jacoby Brissett soon. Houston is 1-1 S/U on the road. C.J. Stroud has been better away from home this season, but the Patriots will force a few turnovers to hang around. The Texans are 1-4 ATS as a road favorite since last season.
Pick: Texans 23, Patriots 17
MORE: Nico Collins injury update
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Buccaneers nearly pulled off the upset at Atlanta before losing in overtime. Can they do it again here against the Saints, who are coming off a short week? Baker Mayfield has a 118.8 passer rating on the road this season. Tampa Bay won the past two meetings at the Caesars Superdome, and New Orleans is coming off a short week.
Pick: Buccaneers 24, Saints 21
WEEK 6 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/ST | Kickers
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Will the Browns bench Deshaun Watson, who has been sacked 18 times through a three-game losing streak? Jameis Winston is the backup, and he might find some success against the Eagles, who are coming off a bye week and could get A.J. Brown back from a hamstring injury. Philadelphia has a minus-6 turnover ratio, and that might allow the Browns to hang around on the road. It’s still a reach knowing Cleveland is 2-4-1 ATS as a road underdog since last season.
Pick: Eagles 27, Browns 19
MORE: Will Deshaun Watson be benched? | Will Browns fire Kevin Stefanski?
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
This is an exciting matchup between Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks. The Commanders (31.0 ppg) and Ravens (29.4 ppg) rank second and third, respectively, in points per game this season. Daniels adjusted to a physical Cleveland defense last week. Jackson has regained his MVP form through a three-game winning streak against the Cowboys, Bills, and Bengals. Who knew this might be the most difficult game to pick among that bunch? The Ravens lead the all-time Beltway rivalry 4-3.
Pick: Ravens 28, Commanders 24
MORE: Jayden Daniels for OROY? Try NFL MVP
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., CBS
The Chargers are coming off a bye week, which allowed Justin Herbert (ankle) and Joe Alt (knee) to rest injuries. The Broncos have allowed just 11 points per game through a three-game winning streak. Even more important, they have protected rookie quarterback Bo Nix, who has not thrown an interception over the past three weeks. Denver has won five straight home meetings in this series. Will Jim Harbaugh break that streak?
Pick: Broncos 19, Chargers 16
MORE: Bo Nix, Sean Payton have animated sideline argument
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., CBS
Will the Raiders trade Davante Adams soon? It’s something to monitor throughout the week. This game will be a dual showcase for Raiders edge rusher Maxx Crosby (5.0 sacks) and Pittsburgh linebacker T.J. Watt (4.5 sacks). The Raiders are 30th in the NFL in rushing offense (84.0 ypg.), and that will be the undoing against the Steelers, who will protect Justin Fields enough to make the game-changing plays.
Pick: Steelers 20, Raiders 14
MORE: Raiders QB depth chart
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
Their last meeting will be rehashed, but these are different teams. The Cowboys are dealing with injuries and have not averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry in a game since Week 1. That lack of a running game will lead to more sacks for Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson. Detroit’s balanced offense will be the difference, and Campbell will have a few wrinkles coming out of the bye week. The Lions are 6-1 ATS as a road favorite since last season.
Pick: Lions 30, Cowboys 20
MORE: CeeDee Lamb lets Dak Prescott hear it after ugly INT
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
The Panthers’ four losses are by an average of 24 points per game. Even in the past two weeks, that number is at 18 points per game. That makes Carolina an easy underdog to pick on, especially against Atlanta. The Falcons have played in five one-score games, with four of those games at home. Kirk Cousins, who is coming off a 509-yard performance in Week 5, could lead a division sweep of the NFC South in as many weeks.
Pick: Falcons 31, Panthers 21
MORE: Multiple players ejected after Bears-Panthers fight
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC Peacock
Is this a dangerous spot for a reeling Bengals team that continues to struggle on defense? The Giants have allowed 21 points or less the past two weeks, but they also are 0-2 S/U and averaging 10.5 points per game at home. Joe Burrow is 1-1 on Sunday Night Football, but he has a 113.6 passer rating. Cincinnati’s passing attack will remain on point in a much-needed road victory.
Pick: Bengals 27, Giants 21
MORE: Wan'Dale Robinson has IG Live video interrupted by coach Brian Daboll
Monday, 8:15 p.m., ABC
Turnovers continue to haunt the Bills. Buffalo has a minus-7 turnover ratio, and that will not cut it in New York. The Jets are returning from a London loss, and they need more out of quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who has a 55.2-percent completion percentage over the past two weeks. New York has won the past two home meetings between these teams.
Pick: Bills 24, Jets 23
MORE: Will Jets fire Robert Saleh? | Aaron Rodgers injury update | Sean McDermott on Bills' costly clock management
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Bill Bender graduated from Ohio University in 2002 and started at The Sporting News as a fantasy football writer in 2007. He has covered the College Football Playoff, NBA Finals and World Series for SN. Bender enjoys story-telling, awesomely-bad 80s movies and coaching youth sports.
