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Bill Bender
Five unbeaten teams are left in the AFC after two weeks, and we kind of expected the Chiefs, Bills, and Texans given preseason expectations.
The Steelers and Chargers? Who knew?
Pittsburgh made it work the last two weeks with Justin Fields at quarterback. The Steelers are winning with an identical total in total offense (260.5, 29th) and total defense (260.5 ypg. fifth). That defense is nasty as usual, and Fields has not turned the ball over. Mike Tomlin can make that recipe work all year in the AFC North.
Speaking of recipes, Jim Harbaugh has the Chargers winning with a rushing attack that averages 197.5 yards per game, efficient play from Justin Herbert, and the second-ranked defense in the NFL at 227.5 yards per game. That is what Harbaugh used to win a national championship at Michigan last year.
MORE: Week 3 Power Rankings | Week 3 NFL picks against the spread
Both teams can win ugly, and that makes the Week 3 matchup at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh a must-watch game between unbeaten teams. Philadelphia also travels to New Orleans in a battle of 2-0 teams, and Baltimore faces Dallas in a game of contenders trying not to fall too far behind in the standings.
Each week, we will pick NFL matchups straight up and against the spread. It was a solid performance given a wild Week 2 in the NFL:
Here are our picks for Week 3:
Odds courtesy of Caesars
Thursday, 8:20 p.m., NBC/Peacock
Another AFC East divisional rivalry comes to Thursday Night Football. The Jets are balanced on offense, as Aaron Rodgers continues to settle in, but they are struggling in run defense. New England will favor a run-heavy attack around Rhamondre Stevenson to keep it close, but Jacoby Brissett is going to have to take some risks on the road. The Jets have not won a home game against the Patriots since 2015, but that changes on Thursday.
Pick: Jets 24, Patriots 19
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Browns are home, where they are 6-1 ATS as a favorite since last season. Cleveland has not forced a turnover through two games, but it will get a few here with the pass rush on Daniel Jones. The Browns will lean on the ground game to put things away, too. New York is generating three sacks per game, and that could be a game-changer if they can get to Deshaun Watson. If not, then the Browns will cruise at home. New York is not a good road team, posting a 2-8 S/U record since last season.
Pick: Browns 22, Giants 13
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Jordan Love (knee) remains a question mark to return, which might allow Malik Willis to face his former team. The Packers will bank on the running game behind Josh Jacobs either way, and it’s on Tennessee not to turn the ball over. The Titans have a -4 turnover ratio, and Will Levis has been sacked seven times. The Packers will cash in on those turnovers, and they overcome a weird stat. Green is 0-3 S/U all-time at Tennessee.
Pick: Packers 21, Titans 16
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Bears will have to protect Caleb Williams better. He has taken league-high nine sacks in two games, but they can keep it on the ground against a bad rushing defense that has allowed 237 yards per game through two weeks. The Colts have issues, too, but Anthony Richardson will make a few big plays at home to help Indianapolis avoid a 0-3 start. Williams makes it a coin flip with the possibility of late-game heroics, but we’ll take the home team.
Pick: Colts 20, Bears 17
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Vikings are a surprise 2-0 team, and Sam Darnold is delivering consistent production with better protection – and Justin Jefferson, of course. Jefferson has eight catches on 11 targets and averages 24 yards per catch. C.J. Stroud is 4-4 S/U in four career road starts. He will establish the connection with Stefon Diggs, who had 10 catches on 12 targets with two TDs. Diggs, however, averages 8.0 yards per catch. The Vikings steal another one here and begin to emerge as a real threat to win the NFC North.
Pick: Vikings 26, Texans 24
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Eagles are coming off a short week, and they face the most surprising team of the bunch. Derek Carr leads the NFL with a 142.4 passer rating with new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, and that comes at 11.4 yards per attempt. The Eagles have the look of a more balanced team with the addition of Saquon Barkley. That has taken pressure off Jalen Hurts. The Eagles were 4-4 S/U and 3-4-1 ATS as an away favorite last season.
Pick: Eagles 27, Saints 21
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
This is arguably the best matchup of the week, and two former Ohio State players hold the keys to the matchup. Can Chargers running back JK Dobbins get rolling against a Pittsburgh defense that allows 76.5 yards per game? Justin Fields can build off his past two turnover-free starts. Harbaugh and the Chargers take advantage of the opportunity and improve to 3-0.
Pick: Chargers 20, Steelers 19
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Baker Mayfield renaissance has been incredible to watch. He is making quick decisions (73.5-percent completion percentage), factoring in the running game (55 yards, TD), and playing with the confidence that made him a star in college. That could be the career trajectory for Bo Nix down the line, but the Buccaneers’ time is now. Yes, Denver is in desperation mode, but the Buccaneers are the better team.
Pick: Buccaneers 27, Broncos 17
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., CBS
The Raiders pulled off an impressive upset at Baltimore in Week 2, and they did that despite 27 rushing yards. Look for Las Vegas to emphasize that running game early against the Panthers, who have allowed 199.5 rushing yards per game the past two weeks. Yeah, the spread is high and Andy Dalton is an experienced starter, but the Panthers are 1-8-1 ATS as a road underdog since the start of the last season. When will they show some fight? Gardner Minshew throws two TDs, and the Raiders get a two-TD cover.
Pick: Raiders 28, Panthers 14
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., CBS
The Dolphins are starting Skylar Thompson in place of Tua Tagovailoa, who suffered another concussion in the Week 3 loss to Buffalo. Thompson can operate the Dolphins’ offense, and Seattle struggled to run the football last week without Kenneth Walker III. Geno Smith has a 73.9-percent completion percentage through two weeks, which ranks fourth in the league. The Dolphins have to disrupt that to have a chance on the road. The Dolphins are 2-9 S/U as an away underdog under Mike McDaniel, but they are 5-6 ATS in that situation. Thompson will keep it close
Pick: Seahawks 24, Dolphins 20
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
The Ravens lead the NFL with 417.5 yards per game, yet they are in danger of falling to 0-3 if they lose at Dallas in the marquee afternoon matchup. What is wrong with Baltimore? They blew a 10-point lead against the Raiders. The Cowboys allowed 190 rushing yards in Week 2, and Lamar Jackson presents a challenge for that pass rush led by Micah Parsons. Are the Cowboys really going to lose back-to-back home games? Baltimore is 5-1 S/U all-time against Dallas. This will be the most-entertaining game of the week as a result.
Pick: Ravens 30, Cowboys 24
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
The Rams have been devastated by injuries to Puka Nakua and Cooper Kupp in the first two weeks, which makes the lift that much more difficult for Matthew Staford without a strong running game. The 49ers are coming off a tough road loss, too, but this is a division rival. Look for more from Brock Purdy, who had 319 passing yards in the loss last week. The 49ers have won four of the past five meetings in San Francisco, but only one was by more than seven points. Los Angeles puts up a fight in their home opener.
Pick: 49ers 26, Rams 19
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
This is an interesting matchup between 1-1 teams. The Lions are coming off a loss that featured some old habits, and Dan Campbell owned his clock-management mistake late in the first half. Amon-Ra St. Brown avoided a serious leg injury, and the Lions must lean on the running game against an improved Cardinals’ defense. The connection between Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. is strong, too. This is a tricky game for Detroit, but Aidan Hutchinson – who has 5.5 sacks – will be the X-factor. The Lions are 5-1 ATS as a road favorite since last season.
Pick: Lions 23, Cardinals 18
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC Peacock
The Chiefs take their show on the road to Atlanta, where the Falcons will look to score a Sunday Night Football upset on a short week. What do the Chiefs do at running game without Isiah Pacheco, who suffered a broken fibula in Week 2 against Cincinnati? That puts more pressure on Patrick Mahomes, but that is nothing he isn’t used to. Mahomes is great indoors, too. In 10 career starts in domes, he is 10-0 with 23 TDs, two interceptions, and a 105.4 passer rating.
Pick: Chiefs 28, Falcons 21
Monday, 7:30 p.m.., ESPN
The Bills are home as part of a Monday Night Football doubleheader. James Cook has been a great piece in the offense with 198 total yards and three TDs. Trevor Lawrence has passed for just one TD pass through two deflating one-score losses. Jacksonville beat Buffalo 25-20 last season, and they are playing with a sense of desperation here. Josh Allen, however, will deliver in the clutch in a game that will play out a little higher than the over.
Pick: Bills 30, Jaguars 27
Monday, 8:15 p.m., ABC
A battle of LSU Heisman Trophy winners with Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels should be fun on Monday night. The Bengals are in a must-win situation here after a disappointing loss against the Chiefs. Ja’Marr Chase has just 10 catches for 97 yards, and Tee Higgins (hamstring) is still working back from an injury. The Commanders are one of three teams who have no turnovers through two games – a sign of maturity with Daniels that will be tested on the road. This has to be the get-well game for Cincinnati.
Pick: Bengals 31, Commanders 21
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Bill Bender graduated from Ohio University in 2002 and started at The Sporting News as a fantasy football writer in 2007. He has covered the College Football Playoff, NBA Finals and World Series for SN. Bender enjoys story-telling, awesomely-bad 80s movies and coaching youth sports.
