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Bill Bender
The NFL front-loaded the Week 16 schedule with AFC showdowns, starting with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Broncos and Chargers. Then, the league went directly against the College Football Playoff with a Saturday doubleheader featuring the Chiefs and Texans and the Steelers and Ravens.
What’s left for Sunday?
Keep an eye on the three-way race for home-field advantage in the NFC. Detroit, Philadelphia, and Minnesota all have road games. The Lions travel to Chicago in a rematch of the 23-20 Thanksgiving nail-biter that led to the firing of Matt Eberflus.
Philadelphia travels to Washington in a NFC East matchup, and Minnesota heads to Seattle. The NFC playoff picture is starting to solidify around those three teams and Green Bay — the other team with at least 10 wins with three weeks left to play. It’s anybody’s guess who gets No. 1. A loss here likely would knock a team out.
MORE NFL WEEK 16:
Each week, we will pick NFL matchups straight up and against the spread. A look at our track record this season:
Here are our picks for Week 16:
NFL HQ: Live NFL scores | Updated NFL standings | Full NFL schedule
Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Prime Video
The Chargers are 1-3 S/U in their past four games, and the season-ending knee injury to JK Dobbins continues to loom large. Los Angeles has averaged just 66.2 rushing yards per game through this stretch. Denver averages 86.5 rushing yards through a four-game win streak, but the defense is creating more turnovers. That could key an upset here.
Pick: Broncos 24, Chargers 21
MORE BRONCOS: Broncos playoff picture
MORE CHARGERS: Chargers playoff picture
Saturday, 1 p.m., NBC
Will Patrick Mahomes (ankle) play in this game? The Texans are favored, which means the oddsmakers believe Carson Wentz will get the start. Houston is 4-3 S/U on the road, and C.J. Stroud has an 83.8 passer rating on the road. We reserve the right to change this pick based on Mahomes’ status, and right now, we assume he plays through the injury with Kansas City still looking for home-field advantage.
Pick: Chiefs 20, Texans 16
MORE CHIEFS: Patrick Mahomes injury update
MORE TEXANS: Joe Mixon banged up on another uncalled hip-drop tackle
Saturday, 4:30 p.m., Fox
When will the Ravens figure out the Steelers? Baltimore has lost to Pittsburgh in each of Lamar Jackson’s past four starts, including an 18-16 loss in Week 11 where Jackson was limited to 253 total yards. The Steelers have a minus-9 turnover ratio in their past five games, and that includes road losses at Cleveland and Philadelphia. The Steelers will be the popular pick to cover, but the Ravens are due here.
Pick: Ravens 24, Steelers 17
MORE RAVENS: Is Lamar Jackson 'back' in MVP race? | Ravens playoff picture
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Giants’ nine-game losing skid continues, and they failed to cover a 17-point spread against Baltimore last week. Atlanta is coming off a short week, and the Falcons are 1-3 S/U as a favorite. That translates into an ugly football game, but Atlanta still has something to play for in the NFC South. New York is 2-4 S/U on the road, and all four losses are by one score. A backdoor cover is possible, but who is the quarterback for the Giants?
Pick: Falcons 21, Giants 12
MORE GIANTS: Tommy DeVito injury update | Giants fans fly banner over MetLife Stadium urging owner to 'fire everyone'
MORE FALCONS: Falcons playoff picture | Will Falcons bench Kirk Cousins?
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
This is a huge line, but the Bills’ offense is clicking. Buffalo is averaging 41.7 points per game over its past three, and Josh Allen is making a run at the NFL MVP award. The Patriots have lost four games by 14 points or more this season, and the Pats have allowed 30-plus points in two of their past three games. Buffalo has won the past two home meetings by an average of nine points.
Pick: Bills 31, Patriots 13
MORE: Josh Allen gets X-rays after 'funky fall' vs. Lions | James Cook scores despite attempted 'hair tackle'
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Injuries are piling up on the Lions’ defense, but the offense remains in top form. Jared Goff averages 332.7 passing yards with 10 TDs and one interception in his past three starts. This might be an audition of sorts for Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, too. Look for Detroit to re-assert its place atop the NFC standings after a tough loss with Buffalo. This won’t be as close as the first meeting.
Pick: Lions 31, Bears 17
MORE: Dan Skipper's TD a year in the making | Lions injury list continues to grow
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Browns have averaged 10.5 points per game in losses to the Steelers and Chiefs, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson could get the start against Cincinnati. The Browns also are without Nick Chubb, who suffered a broken foot. The Bengals are looking to make a playoff push, and Joe Burrow has at least three TD passes in six straight games. Cincinnati has won the past two home meetings by an average of 15 points per game.
Pick: Bengals 30, Browns 20
MORE BENGALS: Joe Burrow explains tense exchange with Zac Taylor | Bengals playoff picture
MORE BROWNS: Nick Chubb injury update
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
These teams combined for 11 turnovers last week. Will Levis committed four turnovers in Week 15, and Mason Rudolph was not much better. The Colts committed five turnovers in their loss to Denver. Anthony Richardson had two interceptions. This one literally comes down to who protects the football, and it feels like a one-score game either way.
Pick: Colts 21, Titans 18
MORE: Jonathan Taylor says costly mistake vs. Broncos 'can't happen' | Colts playoff picture
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Rams lead the NFC West after a three-game winning streak. Los Angeles has not committed a turnover in that stretch, and Matthew Stafford has taken just two sacks. The Jets are 0-4 S/U and 1-3 ATS as an underdog this season. Aaron Rodgers is coming off his best game of the season, and the connection with Davante Adams finally resurfaced. That won’t be enough against a better defense.
Pick: Rams 27, Jets 17
MORE RAMS: Rams playoff picture
MORE JETS: Rodgers, Adams work through 'trust' issues with throwback game vs. Jaguars
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Eagles still have a shot at the No. 1 seed, and the defense has quietly allowed less than 20 points in five of its past six games. Saquon Barkley had 146 yards and two TDs in the last meeting with the Commanders, but he’s dealing with some soreness after the Week 15 matchup against Pittsburgh. Will Nick Sirianni lighten that workload ahead of the postseason? This is a possible first-round preview, albeit on the road for Philadelphia.
Pick: Eagles 28, Commanders 20
MORE EAGLES: A.J. Brown, Jalen Hurts 'tell everyone to shut up' in win vs. Steelers
MORE COMMANDERS: Explaining Commanders-Saints clock errors | Commanders playoff picture
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Cardinals are still in the mix in the NFC West race, but they must avoid a hiccup against the Panthers. Carolina has given up 200-plus rushing yards in its past three losses. That means 20-plus carries for James Conner, who’s averaged 89.3 yards per game over the past three weeks. Kyler Murray edges Bryce Young in a duel between Heisman Trophy winners and No. 1 picks, showing why patience is required.
Pick: Cardinals 32, Panthers 23
MORE: Cardinals playoff picture
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., Fox
Geno Smith (knee) left the Week 15 loss to the Packers, and if he cannot go, then Sam Howell will face the Vikings, one of eight NFL teams with 40-plus sacks. Minnesota is 3-1 ATS when favored by four points or more, and Sam Darnold continues to be the hot hand.
Pick: Vikings 31, Seahawks 19
MORE: Geno Smith injury update | Seahawks playoff picture
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
This is a draft-positioning game. Mac Jones has thrown seven interceptions in his past five starts, and the Raiders continue to shuffle quarterbacks in and out each week. It’s two bad teams, and Las Vegas is working on a short week. Jacksonville is 2-0 ATS as an underdog of three points or less. Why not?
Pick: Jaguars 18, Raiders 15
WEEK 16 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/ST | Kickers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
A pair of 6-8 teams fighting to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. The 49ers continue to battle injuries, and the lack of a running game showed in the Thursday Night Football loss to the Rams in Week 15. The Dolphins are 4-3 S/U at home, and they have just five turnovers in those games. That could be a difference in a toss-up game, but the 49ers show that last bit of fight as an underdog.
Pick: 49ers 27, Dolphins 22
MORE 49ERS: 49ers rip 'selfish' De'Vondre Campbell | 49ers playoff picture
MORE DOLPHINS: Jaylen Waddle injury update | Dolphins playoff picture
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC/Peacock
The Buccaneers can end the Cowboys’ last-ditch playoff push here. Dallas running back Rico Dowdle has averaged 130.7 rushing yards per game over the past three weeks, and Cooper Rush has just one interception in his past four starts. Is there an upset in the works here? Dallas has one victory at home this season and is 4-7 ATS as an underdog. Baker Mayfield has led the Bucs to four straight victories. The playoff push continues.
Pick: Buccaneers 28, Cowboys 21
MORE BUCCANEERS: Buccaneers playoff picture
MORE COWBOYS: Cowboys playoff picture
Monday, 8:30 p.m., Monday, ESPN
The Packers can clinch a playoff spot with a win, and Green Bay has covered in its past four games. New Orleans has allowed 135 rushing yards per game in its past three games, and that’s not good news when facing Josh Jacobs, who has scored eight rushing TDs in his past four outings. There is potential for a blowout here if Jordan Love does not turn the ball over at home. Love has seven interceptions in six home games, but he has not thrown an interception in his past four starts.
Pick: Packers 27, Saints 16
MORE: Explaining clock errors in Commanders-Saints game
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Bill Bender graduated from Ohio University in 2002 and started at The Sporting News as a fantasy football writer in 2007. He has covered the College Football Playoff, NBA Finals and World Series for SN. Bender enjoys story-telling, awesomely-bad 80s movies and coaching youth sports.
