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Bill Bender
The Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs will be in the holiday spotlight on Thanksgiving and Black Friday, respectively.
Their potential greatest challengers will have the stage together on Sunday afternoon in Week 13 when the Philadelphia Eagles meet the Baltimore Ravens. Yeah, we know Buffalo beat Kansas City, but the Bills will have the Sunday Night Football spotlight against the reeling San Francisco 49ers, last year’s NFC champion.
Baltimore and Philadelphia are showing that the running back is still cool. Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley, both huge offseason acquisitions, are the only two 1,000-yard rushers in the NFL this season. Henry has played a complementary role to NFL MVP Lamar Jackson, and Barkley is the missing piece for an Eagles’ team that made the Super Bowl two years ago. That should be the best game of the holiday weekend as a result.
MORE NFL:
MORE NFL:
Each week, we will pick NFL matchups straight up and against the spread. A look at our track record this season:
Here are our picks for Week 13:
NFL HQ: Live NFL scores | Updated NFL standings | Full NFL schedule
Thursday, 12:30 p.m., CBS
The Lions are double-digit favorites again, and they have scored 52 points the past two times they were favored by this many points. This is a division game, though, and Caleb Williams has a 66.3-percent completion percentage with 285.5 yards per game with new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown. Detroit is more advanced and this easily could be a blowout, but we think the Bears hang around. Is that enough for a backdoor cover?
Pick: Lions 34, Bears 21
MORE LIONS: David Montgomery injury update
MORE BEARS: Jonathan Owens pays tribute to Simone Biles with celebration | Bears fans boo injured chain-gang member
Thursday, 4:30 p.m., Fox
Giants coach Brian Daboll is on the hot seat after an embarrassing loss to Tampa Bay. Tommy DeVito’s second stint as a starter did not get off to a great start, and Dallas showed a little fight while beating Washington. Micah Parsons had eight tackles and two sacks in Week 12. What do you think a banged-up DeVito (forearm) or Drew Lock does against a team that has allowed 34 sacks? The Giants are 0-5 ATS as an underdog of four points or less.
Pick: Cowboys 20, Giants 14
MORE COWBOYS: Cowboys playoff outlook after win vs. Commanders | Highlights from Commanders-Cowboys wild ending
MORE GIANTS: Is Brian Daboll on hot seat ahead of Cowboys game?
Thursday, 8 p.m., NBC/Peacock
The Dolphins are a trendy upset pick here given how they’ve looked with Tua Tagovailoa. How will Miami fare in what is expected to be snowy weather at Lambeau Field? Tagovailoa is 0-7 in games where the temperature is 40 degrees or less, and he had three interceptions in his last matchup against the Packers. Miami has a top-10 run defense, so Jordan Love will have to make plays, too.
Pick: Packers 31, Dolphins 26
MORE: Dolphins' playoff outlook after win vs. Patriots
Friday, 3 p.m., Amazon Prime Video
The Raiders will turn to Desmond Ridder at quarterback on Black Friday, and they have lost by double digits in consecutive games coming out of the bye week. Kansas City remembers what happened in last year’s Christmas Day game at Arrowhead Stadium — a stunning 20-14 loss to Vegas. Kansas City is 0-4 ATS when favored by seven points or more. This might be the surprise two-TD result we are not expecting, especially if Ridder makes mistakes.
Pick: Chiefs 29, Raiders 14
MORE: Raiders QB depth chart after Gardner Minshew's season-ending injury
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Chargers are working on a short week, and the cross-country early game is always a concern. Atlanta had a bye week to sort out a two-game losing streak. The Falcons are 3-3 S/U at home this season, which isn’t the homefield advantage it should be. Los Angeles is 2-0 S/U in the Eastern Time Zone with victories against the Browns and Panthers. Justin Herbert leads another road victory.
Pick: Chargers 22, Falcons 17
WEEK 13 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/ST | Kickers
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Bengals are in win-or-else mode for pretty much the rest of the regular season, and the line looks curious knowing Joe Burrow is 3-2 with 11 TDs and eight interceptions in five career starts against the Steelers. Pittsburgh had extra time to sort out a loss to the Browns, and we can’t picture Tomlin going 0-for-Ohio in two weeks. Would you expect anything less than a dramatic finish here?
Pick: Steelers 27, Bengals 25
MORE: George Pickens blasts Browns after loss | Best pictures from Steelers-Browns snow game
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Vikings are 4-1 S/U with three one-score victories at home this season. Arizona had its four-game winning streak snapped, and they are 2-3 S/U on the road this season. Kyler Murray took five sacks last week. The protection will need to be better if the Cardinals want to pull an upset, but we think the Vikings’ charmed season continues in a wild early-window game.
Pick: Vikings 30, Cardinals 27
MORE: NFC West standings after Cardinals loss to Seahawks
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Colts are road favorites at New England, where the Patriots have lost three of four since turning to rookie quarterback Drake Maye. Colts second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson also is still developing, and that makes this a low-percentage passing attack on both sides. New England is 1-1 ATS as an underdog of three points or less, so there is a toss-up feel to it.
Pick: Colts 19, Patriots 14
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
How low can the Jets go? There has been no talk of running the table out of the bye week with Aaron Rodgers. New York is 2-3 S/U at home, and those losses have been by a combined total of five points. That means Seattle is going to have to play well with Geno Smith, who has four TDs, two interceptions, and a 94.5 passer rating on the road this season. This is a trap game for Seattle.
Pick: Seahawks 24, Jets 22
MORE SEAHAWKS: NFC West standings after Seahawks beat Cardinals
MORE JETS: Is Aaron Rodgers dodging medical testing to avoid missing time?
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Commanders are riding a three-game losing streak, and Jayden Daniels has taken 10 sacks in those games. It’s been a different problem each week, and it was turnovers in Week 12. Tennessee has that problem, too, despite the upset against Houston in Week 13. Daniels gets back on track ahead of a much-needed bye week.
Pick: Commanders 26, Titans 16
MORE: Commanders playoff outlook | Brian Robinson Jr. injury update | Austin Ekeler injury update
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Texans have lost three of their past four games despite a plus-3 turnover ratio in that stretch. It’s been puzzling for second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud, who has three TDs and five interceptions in that span. He gets back on track here against Jacksonville. Trevor Lawrence’s status is uncertain, but that likely will not change our pick.
Pick: Texans 24, Jaguars 21
MORE: C.J. Stroud pulls a 'Dan Orlovsky' on game-sealing safety vs. Titans
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., Fox
The Rams are trying to stay in the playoff hunt, and they will need to avoid an upset at New Orleans, where the Saints have won two straight games and are coming off a bye week. The Saints are 1-5 when they allow 100 yards rushing or more, and the Rams are 1-5 when they rush for less than 100 yards. Who wins that battle?
Pick: Rams 20, Saints 17
MORE: Nick Sirianni's late penalty decision vs. Rams creates controversy
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., Fox
The Panthers are 2-1 S/U and their past three games have been decided by three points or less. Does that mean an upset is possible against the NFC South rival Buccaneers? Probably not. Tampa Bay is 3-2 S/U on the road with a pair of overtime losses, and Baker Mayfield has 10 TDs and four interceptions in those games.
Pick: Buccaneers 26, Panthers 18
MORE BUCCANEERS: Baker Mayfield pays 'tribute' to Tommy DeVito with TD celebration vs. Giants
MORE PANTHERS: Ja'Tavion Sanders injury update after scary fall
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
The Eagles have yet another chance to prove they are a Super Bowl contender in a spotlight game. The running backs will be the focus, but the key will be for Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts to complement their running game with game-changing plays through the air. This will live up to expectations, and we like Philadelphia to win in walk-off fashion.
Pick: Eagles 30, Ravens 29
MORE: Saquon Barkley runs into MVP conversation
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC/Peacock
The 49ers are in a tough spot here. Brock Purdy (shoulder) is expected back, but that is not a certainty. Buffalo is coming off a bye week, and the Bills are 5-0 S/U at home this season. Josh Allen has 12 TDs, two interceptions, and a 112.1 passer rating in those games. The 49ers have lost by more than seven points one time this season when Purdy was playing. This is an all-in moment, which makes it a close call on Sunday Night Football.
Pick: Bills 28, 49ers 24
MORE: How loss to Packers impacts 49ers' playoff outlook
Monday, 8:15 p.m., Monday, ESPN
The Broncos are in the playoff hunt, and they have not had a turnover in their past three games. Bo Nix has eight TDs, no interceptions, and four sacks in those games. Will Cleveland’s Myles Garrett, who has six sacks in his past three games, disrupt that timing? The Browns keep this one close on the road, but Denver wins its third straight game.
Pick: Broncos 21, Browns 17
MORE: Jameis Winston caps memorable night with snowball fight | Myles Garrett declares himself 'No. 1' defensive player
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Bill Bender graduated from Ohio University in 2002 and started at The Sporting News as a fantasy football writer in 2007. He has covered the College Football Playoff, NBA Finals and World Series for SN. Bender enjoys story-telling, awesomely-bad 80s movies and coaching youth sports.
