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Bill Bender
The Packers-49ers rivalry helped define the careers of Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers during their time in Green Bay.
Favre was 12-2 against San Francisco for the Packers, including a 4-1 record in the playoffs. Rodgers was 6-7 against San Francisco with a 0-4 record in the postseason. Those are stats that matter in this classic NFC rivalry.
Which brings us to Jordan Love. The Green Bay quarterback had 194 yards, two TDs, and two interceptions in the 24-21 loss to the 49ers in the NFC divisional playoffs last season. Green Bay might own Chicago, but San Francisco is a different story. The Packers are 7-3, but those three losses are against playoff contenders in Philadelphia, Minnesota, and Detroit. San Francisco might be 5-5, but they are still in that weight class when healthy.
MORE: NFL playoff picture | Week 12 NFL Power Rankings | Week 12 NFL picks against the spread
So, yeah, this is a gotta-have-it game for the Packers just as much as the 49ers, and Green Bay has won four of the past five regular-season meetings. That is the highlight of a week that also features the “Harbaugh Bowl” between the Chargers and Ravens.
Each week, we will pick NFL matchups straight up and against the spread. A look at our track record this season:
Here are our picks for Week 12:
NFL HQ: Live NFL scores | Updated NFL standings | Full NFL schedule
Thursday, 8:20 p.m., Amazon Prime
Is this a letdown game for Pittsburgh on a short week? The Browns are 1-4 S/U at home, and Jameis Winston took a combined total of eight sacks in losses to the Ravens and Chargers. Pittsburgh has allowed more than 17 points just twice this season. Russell Wilson has taken three or more sacks in four starts, but he’s limiting the interceptions. The Steelers grind out another AFC North win here.
Pick: Steelers 24, Browns 17
MORE: How Steelers win vs. Ravens shakes up AFC North standings
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Yes, the Bears lost in heart-breaking fashion, but Caleb Williams showed development with new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown. The Vikings are tied for third in the NFL with 35 sacks this season, but Williams can offset that like he did against Green Bay. Can Chicago’s defense rattle Sam Darnold, who has a 99.9 passer rating on the road, though?
Pick: Vikings 21, Bears 19
MORE: 3 reasons why Bears are fading fast from playoff contention
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Lions have defeated three AFC South teams by a combined total of 130-49, and Detroit is 2-1 ATS when favored by more than seven points. Anthony Richardson, who totaled 304 yards and three TDs against the Jets, is a different challenge for Detroit, and the Colts are 5-2 ATS as an underdog. Still, Detroit has allowed just 48.5 rushing yards per game the past two weeks. That will be a difference in this game.
Pick: Lions 34, Colts 21
MORE: Jameson Williams pays tribute to Marshawn Lynch with TD celebration
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Patriots have become a high-volume passing attack with rookie quarterback Drake Maye, who has 40 passing attempts in two of the past three games. He also has four TDs and four interceptions. Miami is figuring it out again with Tua Tagovailoa, who is coming off his best game of the season. The Dolphins have won the past four home meetings in the series.
Pick: Dolphins 28, Patriots 21
WEEK 12 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/ST | Kickers
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Giants are starting Tommy DeVito, and that could give a struggling offense a lift coming out of a bye week. The Buccaneers have lost four straight games, but look at the competition. Baker Mayfield gets back on track, and the Buccaneers keep their hopes alive in the NFC South rest. The Giants are 0-5 S/U and average 10.6 points per game.
Pick: Buccaneers 25, Giants 17
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Cowboys’ season remained in free-fall, and the Commanders had extra time to prepare after a Thursday Night Football loss to the Eagles. Washington coach Dan Quinn, who was the Cowboys’ defensive coordinator from 2021-23, will be the spotlight here. Jayden Daniels will get back on track, and Dallas will continue to struggle with turnovers with Cooper Rush. The teams have split the past six meetings in Washington. Teams who are underdogs of 10 or more points are 0-5 ATS. Will the Cowboys at least break that trend?
Pick: Commanders 30, Cowboys 21
MORE: Commanders 'superglue' Jayden Daniels' hand on sideline
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
We just mentioned the 10-points-or-more trend. The Chiefs are coming off their first loss, and the Panthers are on a two-game win streak coming out of a bye week. The Chiefs have averaged 67.5 rushing yards per game the past two weeks. Look for Kansas City to get that going against a Carolina defense that ranks last in the NFL at 160.1 yards per game. Patrick Mahomes will do the rest.
Pick: Chiefs 31, Panthers 14
MORE: Patrick Mahomes hints at playoff rematch with Josh Allen
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Titans have lost four of their past five games by 10 or more points, and they are 1-4 S/U on the road. Houston is working on a short week after Monday Night Football, but C.J. Stroud will cook at home with an offense that found its rhythm on Monday Night Football. Six of the past eight meetings have been decided by seven points or less. Tennessee hangs around in an AFC South game, but the Texans close out in the fourth quarter.
Pick: Texans 26, Titans 20
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., CBS
The Broncos are in the playoff mix with Bo Nix, who averages 261 passing yards with a 79.3% completion percentage, six TDs, and no interceptions in his past two starts. Las Vegas is 1-3 ATS as an underdog of less than seven points, and the Broncos dominated the first meeting 34-18. What has changed? Nix is better.
Pick: Broncos 27, Raiders 15
MORE BRONCOS: Does Bo Nix have a shot at Offensive Rookie of the Year?
MORE RAIDERS: Raiders cut short Brock Bowers' postgame interview after question about 'Trump dance'
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
We mentioned the Packers’ side, but the 49ers are 2-4 S/U in one-score games this season. The difference for Brock Purdy will be having time against a defense that averages 2.5 sacks per game. Will Green Bay dial up the pressure as a result? San Francisco needs this one to stay in the NFC West race. Could they haunt the Packers one more time in familiar fashion at Lambeau Field to get there, or will the Packers finally break through?
Pick: Packers 24, 49ers 21
MORE: Nick Bosa injury update
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
This should be a heated NFC West battle between two teams with a shot to win the division. Seattle is back at .500 despite a 2-4 record at home, and Arizona had a bye week after back-to-back blowout victories against the Bears and Jets. This could easily be the best game of the week as a result, and Geno Smith works the late magic again.
Pick: Seahawks 30, Cardinals 27
MORE: How San Francisco's loss to Seattle shakes up NFC West standings
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC Peacock
The Eagles have been on their “A” game around Saquon Barkley, who ranks second in the NFL with 1,137 rushing yards. Matthew Stafford is coming off a four-TD performance. The Rams are 2-2 S/U at home, and the Eagles are 4-1 S/U on the road. That mentality will carry over for what is starting to look like the co-favorite with Detroit in the NFC. Home-field advantage will matter in that race.
Pick: Eagles 29, Rams 19
MORE: How Eagles win vs. Commanders shakes up NFC East standings
Monday, 8:15 p.m., ABC/ESPN
The long-awaited sequel to the Harbaugh Bowl is here. Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, who was an assistant with the Ravens from 2017-20, has the task of slowing down the tandem of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Justin Herbert has been efficient at home. He averages 212.6 passing yards per game with seven TDs and no interceptions. This will be the best game of the week, and Jim Harbaugh gets the win against John this time.
Pick: Chargers 23, Ravens 22
MORE RAVENS: Why was Derrick Henry on bench for key 2-point conversion? | Did Travis Kelce curse Justin Tucker?
MORE CHARGERS: Justin Herbert outlasts Joe Burrow in epic 'SNF' duel
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Bill Bender graduated from Ohio University in 2002 and started at The Sporting News as a fantasy football writer in 2007. He has covered the College Football Playoff, NBA Finals and World Series for SN. Bender enjoys story-telling, awesomely-bad 80s movies and coaching youth sports.
