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Bill Bender
It’s finally Bills-Chiefs week, one of the NFL’s best new rivalries will be on full display in Week 11.
The Bills-Chiefs rivalry revolves around the fact Buffalo traded the No. 10 pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, which the Chiefs used to draft Patrick Mahomes. This has become the rivalry that defines the AFC ever since. Kansas City and Buffalo have the two best records in the NFL since 2017.
The Chiefs have won three Super Bowls, while the Bills are still trying to break through in the postseason. The teams have met seven times since 2020, including three AFC playoff matchups which have been swept by Kansas City. Buffalo holds a 3-1 advantage in regular-season matchups between Patrick Mahomes II and Josh Allen.
MORE: NFL playoff picture | NFL power rankings | Week NFL picks against the spread
The stakes are about the same as usual heading into Sunday’s matchup. The Chiefs (9-0) and Bills (8-2) have the two best records in the AFC. Buffalo has a chance to end Kansas City’s perfect season, and there likely will be a rematch in the postseason. It also is the toughest pick in a week that also features the AFC North rivalry between the Steelers and Ravens and a Sunday Night Football matchup between the Bengals and Chargers.
Each week, we will pick NFL matchups straight up and against the spread. A look at our track record this season:
Here are our picks for Week 11:
NFL HQ: Live NFL scores | Updated NFL standings | Full NFL schedule
Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Amazon Prime
This is a fun NFC East matchup on the Thursday Night Football window between two elite NFC offenses. Jayden Daniels has been outstanding on the road this season, with a 76.9-percent completion percentage, seven TDs, and one interception. Can Washington generate enough of a running game against a defense that has allowed just 100 yards rushing one time through a five-game win streak? Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley keep the Eagles moving toward contention for the top seed in the NFC.
Pick: Eagles 28, Commanders 21
MORE: Johnny Newton in tears over late-game mistake vs. Steelers
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
If the Bears want to change the tenor of their season around Caleb Williams, then a victory against Green Bay would be the tonic. Williams has taken 18 sacks in the past three games, but the Packers have had an inconsistent pass rush this season. Green Bay is coming off a bye week, and the Bears have struggled against the run. Expect Josh Jacobs to get a heavy workload, but Chicago hangs around in an all-in moment against their NFC North rivals.
Pick: Packers 27, Bears 22
MORE: Is Matt Eberflus on hot seat?
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
This is tied for the highest spread of the season and the fifth double-digit spread in the NFL this year. The favorite is 3-1 ATS in that situation so far, and Detroit has won its past two home games by an average of 20.5 points per game. Jacksonville has three one-score losses on the road, but they also lost 47-10 at Buffalo. This game could get in that neighborhood with Jared Goff looking to clean up the mistakes after a five-interception performance in Week 10.
Pick: Lions 37, Jaguars 17
MORE: Did Lions get away with key defensive pass interference vs. Texans?
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Vikings lead the NFL with 15 interceptions, and Sam Darnold has thrown five INTs in his past two games. The Titans are 31st in the NFL with a -11 turnover ratio. Which team can keep it clean? Justin Jefferson, who hasn’t scored a TD in three games, breaks that streak, and the Vikings improve to 4-1 S/U on the road. Aaron Jones (ribs) should be good to go, too.
Pick: Vikings 24, Titans 14
MORE: Vikings taunt Jaguars' mascot after takeaways
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Raiders had a bye week to attempt to reconstruct a brutal season, and the Dolphins are working on a short week after Monday Night Football against the Rams. Las Vegas is 3-0 ATS as an underdog of seven points or more, and Gardner Minshew did not throw an interception in his past two starts. Miami will take advantage of Las Vegas’ inability to run the ball, but this still feels like a one-score game.
Pick: Miami 28, Raiders 22
WEEK 11 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/ST | Kickers
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Rams are 1-3 S/U on the road this season, but the protection for Matthew Stafford has been better in the past four games. He took just one sack in three games ahead of the Monday Night Football matchup against Miami, and the defense is creating more turnovers. Patriots rookie Drake Maye has a 66.7-percent completion percentage in his past two starts, but he will be forced to take more chances here if the Rams get ahead early.
Pick: Rams 22, Patriots 15
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Jameis Winston spent three seasons in New Orleans from 2021-23, and now he’ll get the chance to start against his former team coming out of the bye week. The Saints won their first game under interim coach Darren Rizzi, but they have struggled against the run. Nick Chubb could get on track here, and Myles Garrett could build off a three-sack performance in Week 9. Winston leads an emotional road win.
Pick: Browns 23, Saints 20
MORE: Interim coach Darren Rizzi explains why he expected 'crappy day' vs. Falcons
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Which mess will be cleaned up first? The Colts are stuck in a three-game skid, one in which they have committed eight turnovers. Joe Flacco hasn’t quite caught the magic he had in Cleveland last season. The Jets had 207 total yards in a Week 10 loss at Arizona. What is the difference? New York is 2-2 S/U at home with Aaron Rogers, and he has a 100.9 passer rating in those games.
Pick: Jets 24, Colts 17
MORE: Jeff Ulbrich takes blame for loss | Is Aaron Rodgers on hot seat?
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The classic AFC North rivalry is renewed. The Steelers are winning with a formula Russell Wilson loves — a strong running game led by Najee Harris, a few deep shots to George Pickens, and a reliable defense. How will that stack up against Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry? Jackson is 1-3 against the Steelers as a starter, and he has taken an average of five sacks in those games. Pittsburgh won seven of the past eight in this series.
Pick: Ravens 21, Steelers 19
MORE STEELERS: Russell Wilson validates Mike Tomlin's QB decision with win over Commanders
MORE RAVENS: Kyle Hamilton injury update | Derrick Henry wardrobe malfunction
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., Fox
The Falcons are 3-3 S/U on the road, and the Broncos are 2-2 S/U at home. It’s a toss-up game, and Cousins has been solid on the road with a 108.2 passer rating. Atlanta has to get Bijan Robinson going against a Broncos’ defense that ranks seventh against the run. A victory would give Sean Payton a sweep against the NFC South, and we’ll give it to him with a walk-off field goal.
Pick: Broncos 21, Falcons 17
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., Fox
The 49ers are getting healthy with the return of Christian McCaffrey, and Brock Purdy had his second-best passer rating of the season in a 23-20 win against Tampa Bay in Week 10. That’s not a coincidence. San Francisco beat Seattle 36-24 in the first meeting. The Seahawks are 2-1 S/U on the road, but they are also 1-3 ATS as an underdog this season.
Pick: 49ers 29, Seahawks 20
MORE: CMC is back — and so is 49ers' Super Bowl offense | Deebo Samuel explains spat with teammates
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
The Bills are on a five-game winning streak, and Allen has played well against the Chiefs throughout his career in the regular season with nine TDs and two interceptions. He averages 41.2 rushing yards in those games. The Chiefs have allowed 76.8 rushing yards per game in their past four games, but they also average 111.8 rushing yards in the same stretch. Mahomes is going to be asked to do more in this game. Mahomes has seven TDs and five INTs with an average of 31.5 rushing yards per game in those regular-season games with the Bills. Both quarterbacks will let it rip in the second half, and we expect the same-as-usual instant classic.
Pick: Chiefs 25, Bills 23
MORE: How Chiefs stayed perfect | Did Patrick Mahomes ask ref for help? | Taylor Swift meets with ref before Chiefs game
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC Peacock
The Chargers’ turn-around with Jim Harbaugh continues, and it rests on high-percentage offense and a defense that has allowed 17 points or fewer in its six victories. Justin Herbert has a 67.5-percent completion percentage with five TDs and no interceptions through a three-game win streak. Joe Burrow is 65.9 percent with 10 TDs and two interceptions in his past three games, and the Bengals are 1-2. Cincinnati has to have it, and the Chargers have won the past two meetings.
Pick: Bengals 27, Chargers 26
MORE: Ja'Marr Chase's historic performance vs. Ravens | Playoff picture | Missed penalties on final play vs. Ravens
Monday, 8:15 p.m., ABC/ESPN
The Cowboys are in a free-fall after managing just 146 total yards in Week 10 against Philadelphia. Will Trey Lance get the start against the Texans? Micah Parsons, who had two sacks in his return, will get a chance to get after podcast partner C.J. Stroud, who has struggled on the road all season with a 58.6-percent completion percentage, six TDs, and three interceptions. Houston is 2-3 S/U away from home. Is this the last stand for Mike McCarthy in prime time?
Pick: Texans 28, Cowboys 20
MORE: Jerry Jones says Mike McCarthy's job is safe — for now | Micah Parsons not concerned about McCarthy's job
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Bill Bender graduated from Ohio University in 2002 and started at The Sporting News as a fantasy football writer in 2007. He has covered the College Football Playoff, NBA Finals and World Series for SN. Bender enjoys story-telling, awesomely-bad 80s movies and coaching youth sports.
