Almost all of the evidence has been presented to the jury, now it’s time for the NCAA men’s tournament selection committee to make its verdict.
Conference tournament week proved how the last few games can ultimately be the difference if a team goes dancing into March Madness. There were some teams that picked up notable wins to jump into the bracket, while others are feeling regret for not being able to capitalize on prime opportunities. There was a shift in the USA TODAY Sports Bracketology. Plus, there’s one squad went from uncertainty to absolutely with Colorado State securing the Mountain West tournament crown, which will have a major effect on the bubble.
With the exception of one team, there’s nothing else bubble teams can do to improve their stock. Their fate now awaits when the bracket is revealed Sunday evening, but before that happens, here’s one final look at who is on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.
Record: 27-6 (15-3). NET Ranking: 31. Quad 1 record: 3-1. Projected seed: No. 11.
Quality wins: at Dayton.
Bad losses: vs. Seton Hall (neutral), at Saint Louis.
An automatic bid is one game away for Virginia Commonwealth with the Rams securing a spot in the Atlantic 10 championship game. The Rams are in a really precarious spot since there’s no guarantee they get in as an at-large selection considering the lack of signature wins. VCU can erase any doubt with a win over George Mason on Sunday afternoon or have an uneasy feeling with a loss.
Record: 20-12 (8-10). NET Ranking: 47. Quad 1 record: 5-9. Projected seed: No. 11 (First Four).
Quality wins: vs. Tennessee, vs. Kentucky, vs. Missouri.
Bad losses: vs. Drake (neutral).
On March 1, Vanderbilt beat Missouri and was 20-9 and looking like a team that could be in the top half of the bracket. But a three-game losing streak has pushed the Commodores to the brink of the bubble, as they were bounced in the second round of the SEC tournament by Texas. The notable late-season wins gave Vanderbilt comfort it would get in, but don’t be totally surprised if it has to play in the First Four.
Record: 19-13 (10-10). NET Ranking: 54. Quad 1 record: 4-13. Projected seed: No. 11 (First Four).
Quality wins: at Michigan State, vs. Purdue.
Bad losses: at Iowa, at Northwestern.
The late surge by Indiana may have been enough for the Hoosiers to play their way into the tournament. While the recent string of wins were impressive, Indiana could’ve used another win in the Big Ten tournament. Instead it got beat by Oregon for the second time in two weeks. The Hoosiers haven’t lost outside of Quad 1, but the amount of losses may be their downfall.
Record: 21-9 (14-6). NET Ranking: 52. Quad 1 record: 3-6. Projected seed: No. 11 (First Four).
Quality wins: vs. Creighton (neutral), vs. Houston (neutral).
Bad losses: vs. UNLV (twice).
San Diego State had a real chance to solidify its spot in the Mountain West tournament, but a one-and-done appearance thanks to a loss to Boise State has put the Aztecs in shaky territory. The 3-3 finish to the season pushed them out of the comfort zone, and the NET ranking doesn’t favor a tournament bid. The safest scenario is there aren’t many bid-stealers to push it out of the field.
Record: 19-15 (6-12). NET Ranking: 39. Quad 1 record: 7-10. Projected seed: No. 11 (First Four).
Quality wins: vs. Missouri, vs. Texas A&M (twice), vs. Kentucky, at Mississippi State.
Bad losses: at South Carolina.
Did Texas do enough? The Longhorns needed a strong week in the SEC tournament and got quality victories against Vanderbilt and Texas A&M. Since the inception of the NET, no team with seven Quad 1 wins has ever missed the tournament, So while history is on their side, it can easily be bumped out of the field. If Texas makes it, the 15 losses will equal a record for most by an at-large team.
Record: 24-10 (14-6). NET Ranking: 43. Quad 1 record: 3-6. Projected seed: First four out.
Quality wins: vs. Clemson, vs. St. Mary’s (neutral), vs. Utah State, vs. New Mexico (neutral).
Bad losses: vs. Boston College (neutral), vs. Washington State.
Boise State was 40 minutes away from not having to worry about Selection Sunday, but Colorado State’s hot shooting was too much for the Broncos and now they must wait to see if they make the field. Boise State certainly has played like a tournament team in the last month as seven wins in nine games got the Broncos into consideration, however thei bad losses and 8-8 record Quad 1 and 2 might do more harm than good.
Record: 21-11 (13-7). NET Ranking: 45. Quad 1 record: 1-9. Projected seed: First four out.
Quality wins: at Marquette, vs. Connecticut, vs. Creighton.
Bad losses: at TCU, at Georgetown.
The Musketeers had a perfect end of the regular season to get in contention, but needed just one more quality win in the Big East tournament to strengthen its resume. They lost in heartbreaking fashion to Marquette. Xavier will have to hope the selection committee values the recent amount of wins rather than the lack of Quad 1 victories.
Record: 22-13 (13-7). NET Ranking: 36. Quad 1 record: 1-12. Projected seed: First four out.
Quality wins: vs. UCLA (neutral).
Bad losses: vs. Stanford.
How much does the selection committee value Quad 1 wins? North Carolina picked up only one in 13 chances. The brand of the Tar Heels would help draw viewership and interest but that won’t be what sways the committee. In the end, they failed to cash in on their opportunities, and the lack of signature wins looks like it will be their ultimate downfall.
Record: 17-15 (9-11). NET Ranking: 41. Quad 1 record: 6-11. Projected seed: First four out.
Quality wins: vs. Kentucky (neutral), at Purdue, vs. Maryland.
Bad losses: vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Northwestern. vs. Iowa (neutral).
No bubble team had a worse week than Ohio State. It had to play in the first round of the Big Ten tournament suffered an unforgivable loss to Iowa given the circumstances. The Buckeyes don’t have a resume that dissimilar to Texas, however the Longhorns have more quality wins and fewer bad losses.
