Selection Sunday is less than a week away, and the NCAA men’s tournament bracket is starting to take shape − thanks to some strong or less-than-ideal finishes.
The end of the regular season showed how critical it is to end it on a good note, as its not only helped some teams trying to make their way into the bracket, it’s rewarded those teams trying to get the best seed available for March Madness. On the other hand, teams that were once in contention for one of the top 16 overall seeds have fallen out of the mix with late stumbles.
Conference tournaments are the last chance to improve the resume, and before most of the major ones kick off, here are the teams rising and falling in the latest USA TODAY Sports Bracketology projecting the tournament field of 68.
Current projected seed: No. 2
The Red Raiders have climbed up to the No. 2 line after closing out the regular season in dominant fashion. They went into Allen Fieldhouse and were able to hold off a desperate Kansas team for the second ever road win against the Jayhawks. Then Texas Tech handled business against Colorado and Arizona State to finish second in the Big 12. It’s hard to deny the resume with an impressive No. 7 ranking in the NET and eight Quad 1 wins – the second most in the Big 12. The conference tournament will be a great chance to reassure the program’s first No. 2 seed, and a title could get Texas Tech playing close to home through the NCAA Tournament.
Current projected seed: No. 5
Not many teams have had a better month than the Cougars. On Feb. 11, they were projected to miss the tournament and they haven’t lost since. BYU closed the regular season with eight consecutive wins, but what’s more important is that five of them were Quad 1 victories. With a high-seeding now secured, the Cougars are top 16 contenders. As the No. 4 team in the Big 12 tournament, a possible semifinal matchup against Houston could be another big boost to what’s been an impeccable month in Provo.
Current projected seed: No. 6
Once looking like a possible double-digit seed, Illinois has found its rhythm again to not only assure its spot in the field, but get a much favorable matchup in the first round. The beatdown from Duke seemed to light a spark in Illinois as it won three straight after that, including dominating Michigan on the road and ending the game against Purdue on a 16-3 run for a come-from-behind win over the Boilermakers. The Fighting Illini do have a good NET ranking (No. 15) and the eight Quad 1 wins are excellent. They look to be playing some of their best basketball and are a threat in the Big Ten tournament.
Current projected seed: No. 10
Credit Arkansas for regrouping after it lost to South Carolina last weekend. The Razorbacks responded strong with a road win at a hot Vanderbilt team and then held on in a thriller against Mississippi State. One Quad 1 and Quad 2 win each now moves Arkansas away from the bubble and it should be feeling good about its tournament chances. As the ninth seed in the SEC tournament, the Razorbacks will face South Carolina in the opening round. A revenge win should secure a spot in the field and allow them to push higher with more wins in Nashville.
Current projected seed: No. 11
It’s been a roller coaster, but Oklahoma finds itself riding high into the conference tournament with two big-time victories to close out the regular season. After suffering six losses in their last seven games heading into the week, the Sooners beat Missouri and then went on the road Saturday and beat rival Texas. Oklahoma is back in the projected field. It’s not entirely secure yet, but Oklahoma will ride momentum into the SEC tournament as the No. 14 seed. The first-round matchup against Georgia is critical to ensuring it stays in the bracket.
Current projected seed: No. 5
It was a really strong start to the first season in the Big 12, but the Wildcats ran into the gauntlet of the schedule and inconsistent play has pushed Arizona out of the top 16. It didn’t suffer a devastating losses, yet it closed the regular season 3-5 and showed it isn’t at the elite tier of championship contenders. Mix the recently play with the dreadful start to the season and it’s hard to argue an 11-loss team getting a No. 4 seed. There is a chance for the Wildcats to pad their resume as the No. 3 team in the Big 12 tournament.
Current projected seed: No. 6
The honeymoon period of the Dusty May hiring is over in Ann Arbor after an difficult end of the regular season. Michigan were beating soundly in its last three games, losing badly to Illinois and Maryland at home and and getting walked all over Michigan State in regular-season finale. The 9-7 Quad 1 record is significant, but the Wolverines were hoping to add a 10th win to it and ended up looking really bad doing so. It’s fallen from the No. 3 seed projection it had three weeks ago, and Michigan can’t afford a one-and-done appearance in the conference tournament to have any hope of climbing back.
Current projected seed: No. 6
After beating Alabama a few weeks ago, Missouri had a case to be a top 16 team with a 6-6 Quad 1 mark. Instead the Tigers stumbled with four losses in the last five games and failing to add another signature win. Kentucky controlled much of Saturday’s contest in Columbia as defense has become a major concern in recent weeks for Dennis Gates’ team, allowing at least 90 points in its last four losses. Missouri does get the first-round bye in the SEC tournament, but it will have to show some effort in stopping opponents from scoring at will.
Current projected seed: No. 7
The opportunities were right there for Marquette, it just wasn’t able to show it can beat quality teams and its led to a dramatic drop from the seed line. The record is good, but the Golden Eagles went 2-6 against the top four Big East teams, capped off by the gut-wrenching finish against St. John’s on Saturday. Marquette lost its last five Quad 1 chances, ended the season 4-6 and needs to finish well in the Big East tournament. It’s been an awful past month considering it was projected a No. 2 seed at the end of January.
Current projected seed: No. 11
It’s now likely win the Atlantic 10 tournament title or bust for Virginia Commonwealth as an at-large bid seems to be out of the cards despite the 25 wins. The Rams almost pulled off a stunning last-second comeback against Dayton in the regular-season finale, but the loss to the Flyers took away their margin of error. With only three Quad 1 games on the resume, VCU doesn’t have the schedule strength to absorb another loss, despite a NET ranking of 31.
