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The excitement of March Madness is here, and with legalized sports betting now available in 38 U.S. states, this will be the most-bet NCAA tournament ever. If you’re a casual college basketball fan, you’re likely filling out a bracket and making a few wagers on college basketball teams you haven’t watched all season. But fear not, we’re here to help.
In addition to a few key betting storylines and a rundown of sportsbook liabilities in the national champion futures market, I’ve asked several sharp handicappers to share a best bet they like for the first round of the 2025 NCAA tournament.
[Full NCAA tournament bracket revealed | Printable bracket]
As you’re doing your research, keep in mind these three metrics that Thomas Casale, a college basketball handicapper at CBS Sports, looks at when handicapping tournament matchups:
Offensive rebounding percentage
Turnover percentage
Free-throw percentage
“I think those three metrics travel and NCAA tournament games that are close never end because there are so many fouls at the end,” Casale told Yahoo Sports this week. “I tend to look for teams better than 78% free-throw shooting and to fade teams under 70%. Teams that turn the ball over a lot — like Michigan — can get into trouble and aren’t likely to fix it this late in the season.”
Picks for every men's region: South | East | Midwest | West
Remember as well that the NCAA tournament lines are a lot like the NFL playoffs in that the lines are tougher to beat because oddsmakers have fewer games to focus on, and sharp bettors have likely placed their wagers before you have. It’s OK to let a game tip off and have a plan for live betting, rather than having a pre-game wager on two teams you don’t know anything about.
Here are six Round 1 games that some respected bettors have already wagered on:
All odds courtesy of BetMGM
Jim Root, The Athletic: I think the tempo in this game is going to be really slow. Both defenses are bottom 20 in longest average possession length (longest possessions) and like to use the press to slow you down, rather than speed you up. I think we see a lot of longer possessions in this one, and Clemson will force McNeese State to take jumpers over the top, which isn’t their forte.
Bet: Clemson-McNeese State Under 134.5
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Paul Stone, pro bettor: You have to respect what head coach Mark Few has done at Gonzaga — 26 straight appearances in the NCAA tournament and played for two national titles — but I’m not sure this is one of his better teams. Don’t get me wrong, they’re good, I’m just not sure that they’re scary good. The Zags have performed below market expectations for most of the season. Since the beginning of December, Gonzaga is just 7-15 ATS. The Dawgs were on the outside looking in before closing the regular season with four straight victories — three of those coming against NCAA tournament teams — highlighted by an 88-83 home win over Florida on Feb. 25. I’ll take an ascending team with the SEC battle scars getting 6.5 points.
Bet: Georgia +6.5
Chris Fallica, Fox Sports: I think people see Gonzaga as the Ken Pom rating very high and Georgia having that SEC record, but Georgia has wins over Florida and St. John’s. Asa Newell is a freak frosh and can score. They rank very highly in both offensive and defensive FG percentage. They’ve had their fair share of games where they haven’t closed games out, but I think Gonzaga is living a little bit more from their past. Everyone else in Top 10 was a top-3 seed. They [Gonzaga] lost to WVU, Kentucky, UCLA and some other teams; they beat Baylor in the first game of the year and beat St. Mary’s in the conference title game — only two wins over tourney teams. I think people aren’t familiar with Georgia and how dangerous a team they are.
Bet: Georgia +6.5
Root: I think both teams will score extremely efficiently in the half court. Purdue is in the bottom 10 in the country in block rate and doesn’t have any rim protection, while High Point plays downhill off the bounce. High Point’s defense has been hurt by point guards that are really good in ball screens, and Braden Smith is one of the best in the country at just that. I don’t think High Point can stop Trey Kaufman-Renn in the post, either. I’m going with the over here.
Bet: High Point-Purdue Over 153.5
Fallica: I’m hoping that this eventually hits +3, but I like it at +2.5 as well. This is going to be a situation where Louisville is that perceived team that was done wrong by the committee and gets to play close to home at Rupp Arena. The ACC was down really bad this year, and Louisville had a rough non-conference start to the season. Coach Pat Kelsey and those guys had a great turnaround, but Creighton is a good team and has valuable tournament experience. I think Creighton is the better team here and has the better wins this season.
Bet: Creighton +2.5
Stone: Yale is in the NCAA tournament for the second straight season and last year upset mighty Auburn 78-76 in the opening round as a 13.5-point underdog. The Bulldogs are among the nation’s leaders in 3-point percentage, ranking in the top 10 at 38.5% from beyond the arc. Their main marksman is 6-foot-6 senior guard John Poulakidas, who hit a shade over 40% from 3-point territory in each of the last three seasons. In last year’s upset win over Auburn, Poulakidas scored a season-high 28 points on 10-of-15 shooting from the field, including 6-of-9 from beyond the arc. About a month ago, I thought Texas A&M was a dark-horse Final Four contender, but the Aggies have lost five of their last seven games. I could see this one being tight throughout.
Bet: Yale +7.5
[Three key betting storylines from Selection Sunday | Odds for every Round 1 game]
Stone: Kansas began the season as the preseason No. 1 team, but suffice it to say, the 2024-25 campaign has been a disappointment to date. The Jayhawks sputtered to an 11-9 record in Big 12 play, with the lowlight being a historic 91-57 loss at BYU in mid-February. Then in the Big 12 tournament in their backyard in Kansas City, the Jayhawks needed overtime to defeat middling Central Florida 98-94 in their opening game. Much like Georgia, Arkansas needed a late-season push to gain an invitation to the Big Dance, winning seven of its final 11 regular-season games and doing much of that damage without its top two scorers, Boogie Fland and Adou Thiero. While Thiero won’t play against Kansas, Fland — who hasn’t seen action since Jan. 18 due to a hand injury — is expected to return and is a significant addition. Arkansas has covered six of its last eight games as the betting underdog.
Bet: Arkansas +4.5
