Search the news, stories & people
Personalise the news and
stay in the know
Emergency
Backstory
Newsletters
中文新闻
BERITA BAHASA INDONESIA
TOK PISIN
live
Topic:Stock Market
The ASX has made marginal gains, dragged down by miners, while EV sales are flatlining despite a record year for car sales.
In corporate news, wealth manager Insignia Financial has jumped on a second takeover bid in three days, from another US private equity firm.
Follow the day's financial news and insights from our specialist business reporters on our live blog.
Disclaimer: this blog is not intended as investment advice.
By Stephen Letts
Prices current around 4:30pm AEDT
Live updates on major ASX indices:
By Stephen Letts
Goodbye and thanks for your company.
Looking ahead, Wall Street for once looks like taking its lead from the ASX, with futures trading pointing to a flat session on the S&P 500.
The blog will be back in action tomorrow morning, while ABC News online will cover any major updates or breaking stories in the meantime.
Until next time …
By Stephen Letts
The ASX lost momentum across the session after a strong opening to the day.
The ASX 200 ended flat at 8,249 points, having opened the day 0.4% higher.
Property, technology and energy stocks generally outperformed the rest of the market.
The miners were the biggest drag.
Rio Tinto, BHP and Fortescue have all been sold off despite higher iron ore and copper prices on Friday.
On the other end of the ASX's proverbial "barbell", banks were mixed and, like most of the market, their early gains were trimmed as the session ground on.
The bigger technology stocks were in demand, taking their lead from Wall Street where the Nasdaq had a strong end to the week.
Energy stocks in general and uranium miners in particular also enjoyed a strong day, with key players all up around 5%.
It's no surprise the big winner this morning is wealth manager Insignia Financial which announced it had received another takeover offer.
However, at $4.05 Insignia is still trading well below today's $4.30 offer from US-based CC Capital.
The worst-performing stock on the ASX 200 is gold miner Bellevue Gold, down 13.3% after trimming it production guidance.
Across the region most markets were weaker with Japan's Nikkei down 0.6% in afternoon trade.
Oil and gold lost ground over the day as well.
Looking ahead, futures trading on Wall Street's S&P 500 points to a flat opening later tonight.
By Stephen Letts
China's services economy has expanded at its fastest pace in seven months, buoyed by new business orders and higher prices.
While most of the growth was centred on the domestic economy, export business declined for the first time in August 2023.
The Caixin/S&P Global Services PMI found activity accelerated in December, keeping the trend of two years of expansion rolling along.
While sales picked up in line with the creation of new business, optimism and employment fell across the sector.
"Competitive markets together with uncertainties over global trade were the main concerns of the surveyed businesses," Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said.
While exports have been one of the few bright spots in the Chinese economy in recent times, the survey noted new export business declined for the first time since August 2023 amid softening foreign interest.
By Stephen Letts
Australians bought a record number of cars last year, but you may not hear the sound of champagne corks popping around dealerships at the moment.
Last month, around 96,000 new cars were sold taking the total to 1,220,607 new car sales in 2024, 0.3% higher than the year before and a new record for the industry.
However, while the industry is far from running on fumes, it is shifting down through gears and slowing.
Sales of fully electric vehicles flatlined compared with the rapid growth in previous years.
In all, 91,292 EVs sold — a 4.7% increase on the year before, but the smallest percentage increase on record.
Tesla was the biggest drag on EV sales with 8,000 fewer delivered last year compared to 2023.
EV sales were up more than 150% in 2023 and almost 100% 2022.
Chief Executive of the Federal Camber of Automotive Industries, Tony Weber said that while very strong sales in the first half of 2024 set up the full year result, the momentum in the market was lost as the year progressed.
"The second half of the year showed a concerning trend with sales in the private segment falling to very low levels as interest rates and general cost of living pressures impacted Australian families," Mr Weber said.
The market is still dominated by SUVs and light commercial vehicles which fill all the spots in the top ten by sales volume.
Toyota retains its position at the top of the sales ladder with 19.8% of the market, followed by Ford (8.2%) and Mazda (7.9%).
Mr Weber said lower than expected sales for battery electric vehicles were being replicated in a number of major markets around the world.
"Governments around the world have set regulations that are ahead of available zero emissions technologies and this is impacting both car makers and consumers.
"Manufacturers in the UK, Europe and the USA are under pressure because they have made huge investments to manufacture EVs, but customers are not buying them in the numbers needed to meet emission targets and to provide a return on investment," he said.
By Stephen Letts
Wall Street's pundits have punched a lot of numbers into their spread sheets and emerged with a consensus view that the S&P 500 will deliver a 12% return this year.
This rosy outlook is based on the view that the Fed will engineer a soft landing with just the right amount of rate cutting for the US economy to grow steadily with inflation humming along within the Fed's guardrails.
In other words, US exceptionalism will continue while the rest of the world slows, dragged down by the likes of China and Germany.
But not everyone on Wall Street is buying that — the Bank of New York Mellon's head of market strategy, Bob Savage, is one analyst urging caution.
"The year ahead is filled with uncertainty led by the policy expectations for the US as it shifts from globalization to America First policies with trade tariffs and immigration being the highlighted worries for investors," Mr Savage wrote in a note over the weekend.
Mr Savage said the coming weeks might determine the outlook for the year.
"The US exceptionalism faces risks for cracking in the week ahead with jobs, ISM and consumer confidence all critical parts of the puzzle for how investors reallocate risk into 2025," he said.
The pundits have pencilled in fourth-quarter earnings growth of around 12% which, as Mr Savage points out, would be the highest quarterly earnings growth since late 2021, all at a time when earnings downgrades are starting to roll in.
The results of the confession season so far are sub-par.
"As of Friday, 71 companies (14% of the index) have seen negative outlooks — that is above the 5 and 10-year averages," Mr Savage said.
The lack of late December rally puts the focus on January to deliver momentum to US exceptionalism argument.
"The problem for many is that we remain in uncertain times with policy particularly that of the US less clear than normal," Mr Savage noted.
"Trump polices on trade, immigration and taxes will matter significantly for the FOMC (Federal Reserve rate setting committee) but more so for the rest of the world.
"The reduced volumes of December make some of the moves seen in markets less trusted and leaves the focus on whether US exceptionalism can hold through the week and month."
By Stephen Letts
Prices current around 12:45pm AEDT
Live updates on major ASX indices:
By Stephen Letts
The ASX has lost momentum after a strong opening to the week
At 12:40pm AEDT, the ASX 200 was up just 0.1% to 8,260 points, having opened the day 0.4% higher.
The industrial sector has led the way while technology stocks, REITs and banks have also been in demand.
The big drag so far has been the miners.
Rio Tinto, BHP and Fortescue have all been sold off this morning despite higher iron ore and copper prices on Friday.
On the other end of the ASX's proverbial "barbell", banks are mixed and, like most of the market, their gains have been trimmed as the session has ground on.
Technology stocks are in demand, taking their lead from Wall Street where the Nasdaq had a strong end to the week.
It's no surprise the big winner this morning is wealth manager Insignia Financial which announced it had received another takeover offer.
However, at $3.98 Insignia is still trading well below the $4.30 offer from US-based CC Capital.
The worst-performing stock on the ASX 200 is gold miner Bellevue Gold, down 12.2% on the release of a downgraded production estimate this morning.
By Stephen Letts
The big broking house J.P. Morgan says the $2.9 billion takeover offer from wealth manager Insignia Financial from US-based private equity firm CC Capital Partners may not be enough.
J.P. Morgan analyst Siddharth Parameswaran wrote in a note to clients Insignia still looks cheap compared to the growth targets its management has detailed.
"The stock is certainly not priced for achieving its ambitious aspirational targets," Mr Parameswaran said.
"We said previously following the Bain Capital offer that if the Board believes its targets have some chance of being achieved, they will seek a higher offer."
The $4.30 off from CC Capital represents a 7.5% premium from a bid launched by Bain Capital on Friday.
It is also 21% higher than Insignia's Friday close.
"The arrival of a second offer now introduces competitive tension into the bidding process, which we think is a positive and increases the chances of a more favourable outcome for shareholders," Mr Parameswaran said.
"It is unclear if the board will engage with this offer," he added.
Insignia has about $4 billion in funds under management and grew out of the old IOOF business after it took over MLC from NAB in 2021.
By Rachel Clayton
Morning everyone! Rachel Clayton here jumping in with some predictions about what Wednesday's inflation is likely to show.
Ben Jarman, chief economist from J.P. Morgan, believes this week's CPI data is likely to reinforce the RBA board's confidence that inflation is falling.
The impact of the renewed household energy subsidies, which has been the main factor propping up inflation, should start fading, he said.
"In November we expect food prices will have picked up again based on related NZ data, as will furnishings/household equipment/services.
"The transport group should also post a gain, but while fuel prices perked up initially, most of the rise was given back by month-end so gains should be only moderate."
Jarman said weak global pricing and sales would drag clothing/footwear prices.
Alcohol and tobacco should also be a slight drag and housing is expected to be benign.
Are you grappling with the high cost of living or are a business battling rising costs? Get in touch at clayton.rachel@abc.net.au
By Stephen Letts
The ASX has opened the morning higher after a strong end to the week on Wall Street.
At 10:20am AEDT, the ASX 200 was up 0.4% to 8,283 points.
The industrial sector led the way while technology stocks, REITs and banks were also in demand.
The big drag so far has been the miners.
Rio Tinto, BHP and Fortescue have all been sold off this morning despite higher iron ore and copper prices on Friday.
On the other end of the ASX's proverbial "barbell", banks are doing well.
It's no surprise the big winner this morning is wealth manager Insignia Financial which announced it had received another takeover offer.
However, at $3.94 Insignia is still trading well below the $4.30 offer from US-based CC Capital.
The worst performing stock on the ASX 200 is gold miner, Bellevue Gold, down 12.2% on the release of a downgraded production estimate this morning.
By Stephen Letts
Prices current around 10:20am AEDT
Live updates on major ASX indices:
By Stephen Letts
The wealth manager Insignia Financial has received a takeover offer from private equity outfit CC Capital Partners, after recently rejecting a recent bid from Bain Capital.
In a statement to the ASX, Insignia said CC Capital bid of $4.30/ share represented a 7.5% premium to Bain's proposal of $4.00/share.
Insignia said its board is considering whether it is in the best interests of shareholders to engage with US-based CC Capital on the proposal.
By Stephen Letts
Australian service industries have reported accelerated business activity to end the year but still cut jobs for the first time in three and half years.
The S&P Global Services Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) found activity and optimism in the sector rose in December with the eleventh consecutive month of expansion.
However, the survey found employment fell for the first time since August 2021 as capacity pressure softened.
It also noted, "input cost inflation intensified at the end of 2024, leading to a more pronounced rise in average charges."
S&P Global economist Jingyi Pan the better news was driven by a quicker rise in new business, with external demand notably improving for the first time in four months.
"Confidence among Australian services firms also climbed to the highest level in just over two-and-a-half years to signal greater hopes for output growth," Ms Pan said.
However, the was a note of caution in rising costs found in the survey, although Ms Pan said it was unlikely to change the RBA's course on future rate cuts.
"Higher readings across price measures pose a risk for inflationary pressures, although both rates of input cost and output price inflation remain below their series averages at the end of 2024," she said.
The S&P Global Market Intelligence said it still expected an interest rate cut from February 2025.
By Stephen Letts
Australia
Mon: PMI (Dec)
Tue: Building approvals (Nov)
Wed: Inflation indicator (Nov)
Thu: Retail sales (Nov), trade balance (Nov)
International
Mon: CH — Caixin PMI (Dec)
Tue: US — Trade balance (Nov), factory orders (Nov), durable goods (Nov), job openings (Nov)
Wed: US — ISM manufacturing PMI (Dec), ADP employment (Nov), Fed meeting minutes
Thu: US — EIA fuel inventories (weekly)
Fri: US — Non-farm payrolls, unemployment
The local flow of data resumes this week with the Purchasing Managers' Index opening the batting.
Its form has been somewhat scratchy for a while, averaging just below 50, indicating a marginal decline in activity.
Building approvals (Tuesday) are likely to continue on their volatile way showing while things are improving, approvals remain below their long-term average.
Perhaps the most important release of the week will be the monthly CPI indicator on Wednesday as it a key to the prospects for a rate cut from the RBA next month.
NAB is forecasting headline inflation in November will rise from 2.1% yoy to 2.4% as the impact of electricity subsidies unwind.
As NAB's Taylor Nugent notes the November figures will firm up expectations on fourth quarter CPI to be released at the end of the month, with the bank forecasting trimmed median CPI (the RBA's preferred measure) rising to 3.1% — which is above the target band, but below the RBA's guessitimate of where it would be.
Retail sales and the trade balance (both Thursday) round out the week's offering from the ABS.
Overseas, there will be a slew of US jobs figures starting with job openings (JOLTS) on Tuesday, then ADP employment (Wednesday) and the most influential of all, non-farm payrolls/unemployment numbers on Friday.
On going strength in the jobs market isn't a great argument for deep rate cuts from the Fed.
By Stephen Letts
The ASX 200 is eyeing a modest gain this morning after Wall Street broke out of its festive season torpor on Friday.
The S&P 500 (+1.3%), the Nasdaq (+1.8%) and Dow (+0.8%) all made solid gains, but overall, they lost ground over the week.
Following that late session momentum, the ASX 200 futures point to a 0.3% rise this morning.
The US buying was spurred on by some bargain hunters spotting value in the so-called Santa Claus Rally that never arrived.
"After the late-in-the-year weakness, and a very oversold market, we finally saw some buyers step in," Carson Group chief market strategist, Ryan Detrick told Reuters.
"Obviously the past week-and-a-half has been disappointing for the bulls, but volume has been light and there hasn't been a lot of news."
"Let's just remember, starting next week, on Monday, that's when a lot of the big money managers come back to the desk."
Globally, it was a mixed bag.
The broad MSCI index rose 0.9%, but Europe was a drag with both the Eurostoxx 600 and the FTSE slipping on low volumes.
The US dollar was marginally stronger after manufacturing data pointing to stronger than expected activity.
US Treasury yields also rose slightly on the better-than-expected economic news and the belief that this week's jobs' data would also be strong, undermining the case for deeper interest rate cuts.
Oil rose on the back of higher demand due to cold weather in Europe and another batch of pro-growth policy announcements in China.
The news out of China on Friday that its central bank would shift ground on monetary policy by increasing issuance of long-dated bonds, and perhaps cutting official rates, also supported the likes of copper and iron ore prices,
Gold enjoyed a solid week (+0.8%) but slipped on Friday in response the stronger US dollar.
By Stephen Letts
Good morning and welcome to another week on the ABC markets and finance blog.
Stephen Letts from ABC business team limbering up for a blow-by-blow coverage of the day's events, where every post is hopefully a winner, but none should be construed as financial advice.
In short, futures trading points to a 0.3% rise on the ASX 200 this morning after a positive end to the week on Wall Street.
As always, the game's afoot, so let's get blogging.
By Stephen Letts
Prices current around 7:15am AEDT
Live updates on major ASX indices:
Topic:Air and Space Accidents and Incidents
Topic:Arts, Culture and Entertainment
Topic:Crime
Topic:Roads
Topic:Sexual Offences
Topic:Awards and Prizes
Topic:Cricket
Topic:Tennis
Topic:Public Transport
We acknowledge Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Australians and Traditional Custodians of the lands where we live, learn, and work.
This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced.
AEST = Australian Eastern Standard Time which is 10 hours ahead of GMT (Greenwich Mean Time)
