Bethany Gill winds a clock in the Pennsylvania Supreme Court chamber Dec. 13 in Harrisburg.
Where does Pennsylvania go from here politically?
It can be hard to predict. That’s what makes Pennsylvania a swing state. The Democratic and Republican strongholds are well known, but the fuzzy purple edges where things blur are harder to pin down.
Will that continue?
Will Pennsylvania continue to be the weather vane that points in the direction of the presidency? Or, like neighboring Ohio, will it cement itself in one party’s corner?
To answer that question, look at more than just presidential elections. In the seven national races since 2000, Pennsylvania has gone Republican four times and Democratic three.
State politics shows more division. There have been six gubernatorial elections in the same period. All but one went to the Democrats. At the same time, the Republican Party maintains its iron grip on the state Senate, while the Democrats have a thin edge in the House of Representatives.
The margin of Democratic majority in the state is growing narrower, which is how Donald Trump pulled out a Pennsylvania victory that was part of an overall national presidential win.
But what might be the real change in Pennsylvania’s political power is its slipping numbers. The state has lost electoral votes in a slow slide over recent census counts. It remains the largest swing state — but not by much.
Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes; North Carolina and Georgia are right behind with 16. With the 2030 census just five years away, the 2032 election could see a change in the power balance.
“Looking ahead 25 years, I wouldn’t be surprised if Pennsylvania is still a swing state, a pretty competitive state, but that things continue to switch internally,” said Muhlenburg College political science professor Chris Borick.
Being a swing state was exhausting in 2024, with a never-ending barrage of advertising and campaign visits. Giving that up, however, means being less important in the national conversation.
Pennsylvania is critical to discussions about more than politics. It’s the building blocks that make up those issues. Pennsylvania is manufacturing, energy, education, health care, aging, environment, transportation and more.
Will the state remain a major player on the political stage? It’s hard to tell. But whether Pennsylvania affects politics, politics will continue to affect Pennsylvania.
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