While the First Four and day one of the Round of 64 have come and gone, No. 6 seed Illinois (21-12) is still waiting on its opening contest. No. 11 seed Xavier (22-11) is the opponent after already winning a game to earn its spot in the first round.
The sports staff has analyzed Illinois basketball and its potential Friday and Sunday matchups and put together some predictions for the first two rounds of March Madness.
Xavier picks
Illinois (9) – 75%
Xavier (3) – 25%
Supreme confidence is flowing through the sports staff this week, as everyone is on their individual spring breaks. While some chose to travel and others chose to stay home, practically everyone agreed that the Illini would win their first game.
A few reporters cited that the Illini would start the tournament on a shooting spree. Illinois is 18-2 this season when shooting over 27% from long range, so early three-point success leading to a win was a common take.
For those who sided with the foe, the reporters are fearful of the veteran presence that Xavier brings. The Musketeers play seven upperclassmen, and it benefited them immensely in their First Four game against the No. 11 seed Texas Longhorns (19-16). A 13-point comeback included quality defense, fast break scoring and three-point shooting from Xavier. Each could pose problems for a young Illinois team.
How many games will Illinois win?
Zero (3) – 25%
One (2) – 16.7%
Two (7) – 58.3%
Despite Illinois likely to face No. 3 seed Kentucky (22-11) in the second round, over half of the staff still believes Illinois will advance to the Sweet 16. The Wildcats are dealing with a couple of injuries as they enter the tournament, leaving them vulnerable to opponents.
The reporters also think that the Illini will ride their starting guards to victory. When freshman guard Kasparas Jakučionis and junior guards Kylan Boswell and Tre White are on their games, Illinois has been nearly impossible to beat this season. They control the game, and our DI crew believes that they have saved some three-point shooting for the tournament.
However, the trio can also be turnover-prone against physical opponents. A veteran Xavier squad took 25% of writers to choose zero games, but two more join them for the matchup against Kentucky. The Wildcats have six double-digit scorers, and all of them are upperclassmen.
Who will be the most impactful Illini?
Kylan Boswell (5) – 41.7%
Kasparas Jakučionis (3) – 25%
Will Riley (2) – 16.7%
Tre White (1) – 8.3%
Tomislav Ivišić (1) – 8.3%
A majority of the staff is predicting at least one win behind Illinois’ guards. Boswell has been the leader for Illinois since it turned a page five games ago and is crucial to its success. He was the top vote-getter in this category after having played in the last two NCAA tournaments with No. 4 Arizona (22-12), and a young Illinois group desperately needs his experience.
“As (Jakučionis) goes here, so does the rest of the team,” was thrown around in discussion, and multiple people agreed. The Lithuanian received the second most votes for most impactful Illini this weekend. His performance has been up and down for a while, but when he is making shots and playing clean basketball, Illinois’ ceiling is as high as anyone’s.
Freshman forward Will Riley was the only other player with more than one vote. His late-season burst has certainly helped Illinois win a couple of games, and his length could be very valuable in March. With a healthy roster, Illinois can finally play big, and Riley is ready after weeks of extra playing time he may not have been expecting.
White and sophomore center Tomislav Ivišić each received one vote. White has been key in several games late in the season, becoming a reliable threat from long-range. He has also played physical defense, which the entire team should model after.
Ivišić is arguably the most important piece on the team at this point as well. In the few games without the Croatian big man during his mono stint, Illinois looked lost at times. A 7-foot-1 center that can spread the floor is a matchup nightmare in the tournament, and if he’s hitting the three, look out.
