The first College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchup doesn’t lack for intrigue. No. 3 seed Boise State is returning to the site of three of the program’s biggest victories – the Fiesta Bowl. The Broncos famously beat Oklahoma back in 2006 but they also have wins against TCU and Arizona in the state of Arizona.
The opponent Tuesday night in Glendale will be Penn State. The Nittany Lions are searching for the program’s first national title since 1986. They’ll also be looking to end the struggles coach James Franklin has experienced in big games. Some of that frustration was alleviated by a convincing defeat of SMU in the first round. But this is another game that Penn State is a significant favorite, and a loss will further rachet up the pressure on Franklin entering next season.
It shapes up to be a special way to spend New Year’s Eve and ring in 2025. So who wins? Our experts provide their predictions.
Job No. 1, 2, and 3 for the Penn State defense is to stop Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty. Both teams have a +7 turnover margin, which will determine the winner of the game. This game is not played on paper; otherwise, Penn State would win, so expect Boise State to empty the playbook on offense with a heavy dose of Jeanty and make Drew Allar beat them in the air on defense. Penn State 30, Boise State 20.
Ashton Jeanty faces a tough Penn State defense that will make stopping the run priority No. 1. The Broncos running back may get in the end zone, but he’s limited and unable to get Boise State to get past the Nittany Lions. Penn State 23, Boise State 16.
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Whether Ashton Jeanty can get going and make a run at Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing record will be the deciding factor. Penn State’s strong run defense is going to make things difficult for Jeanty and the Broncos. Another key is the Broncos’ play on both lines. Can they protect the passer and get after Drew Allar? The Nittany Lions have more room for error and could survive without playing their best game. Penn State 28, Boise State 17.
The narrative around Boise State pulling off an upset often cites the close loss the Broncos had at Oregon as a reason for optimism. But that game was three month. Penn State has too much muscle and speed on defense to allow Boise State much breathing room. The rushing attack of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen should slowly wear the Broncos down on the way to a comfortable win. Penn State 30, Boise State 14.
Technically, Boise State is the higher seed, but the Broncos approach this test with the underdog mentality that has served them well. Penn State appears to have the better and deeper talent, but that doesn’t always win games. It will be a tough battle, but Boise will pull it off. Boise State 28, Penn State 24.
The line of scrimmage will once again be the area that sets Penn State apart from a less-talented opponent. However, you can’t count on shutting down Ashton Jeanty completely. His game-breaking ability gives the Broncos a puncher’s chance. Penn State 26, Boise State 17.
