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Bill Bender
The top-five Big Ten showdown between No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Oregon is the highlight of a fantastic Week 7 college football schedule.
Seriously, we have had Oct. 12 circled since the summer.
The Buckeyes are road favorites against the Ducks – and the winner will have a leg up in the Big Ten championship race. That prime-time showdown is one of three games between ranked teams in the AP Top 25.
No. 2 Texas meets No. 18 Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, and No. 9 Ole Miss travels to No. 13 LSU at 7:30 p.m. ET in a SEC doubleheader that will keep our attention.
The schedule also features No. 4 Penn State at USC, Florida at No. 8 Tennessee and No. 18 Kansas State at Colorado.
MORE: Updated College Football Playoff projection after wild Week 6
There are 17 games involving ranked teams in Week 7. A look at our track record this season.
Here are our picks against the spread for Week 7:
A battle of one-loss Big 12 teams, and the Sun Devils have enjoyed a revival with second-year coach Kenny Dillingham. Cam Skattebo averages 5.6 yards per carry, and the defense allows just 96 yards on three yards per carry. Utah had a bye week, and the quarterback situation remains a mystery. The Utes beat the Sun Devils 55-3 last season. Utah is 1-3 ATS against Power 4 opponents, but that cover was on a spread of less than seven points.
Pick: Utah wins 31-24 and COVERS the spread.
How does Alabama get off the mat after a shocking loss to Vanderbilt? The Gamecocks are coming off a 27-3 loss to Ole Miss, but it’s worth noting they covered in a 30-6 victory at Kentucky in their only other road game this season. Alabama’s defense struggled, but this will be a key difference this week. Vanderbilt ranks 20th in the FBS in third-down conversions. South Carolina is 120th. Expect Alabama to take advantage of that in the second half, and Jalen Milroe and Ryan Williams connect for a pair of TDs. Still, that spread is a lot for a struggling defense to back up. South Carolina is 6-7 ATS as a road underdog under Shane Beamer.
Pick: Alabama wins 38-10 and COVERS the spread.
Clemson continues to roll in the ACC since the season-opening loss to Georgia. The Tigers have covered three of the last four weeks, but this line dropped two points from its open. That makes it a little tougher to count on Wake Forest – who have given up 30 or more points in every game this season. The Demon Deacons have the worst defense in the ACC, too. We will count on the Tigers to get a few stops on the road.
Pick: Clemson wins 42-21 and COVERS the spread.
Missouri is coming off a blowout loss – and now the Tigers have an oddly-scheduled game at UMass. The Minutemen average 19.2 points per game with former Clemson and Georgia Tech quarterback Taisun Phommahanh. Missouri needs a get-well game on offense, and the offense will break out a huge first-half lead behind Brady Cook and Nate Noel. Missouri is 8-0 S/U and 5-3 ATS in non-conference games since 2023.
Pick: Missouri wins 45-9 and COVERS the spread.
The Red River Rivalry comes with a huge spread. Texas did beat Oklahoma 49-0 in 2022 with Quinn Ewers as a freshman, so a blowout is possible if OU quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. cannot find some consistency in the passing game. The Sooners allow just 2.6 yards per carry with a defense led by Danny Stutsman – and if they can make Texas one-dimensional then there is a chance. That 2022 blowout was the anomaly in a series that has produced nine one-score games in the last 10 meetings.
Pick: Texas wins 31-21 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
The Boilermakers have scored just 11 points per game through a four-game losing streak and are coming off a 52-6 loss at Wisconsin. The Boilermakers have allowed 5.6 yards per carry, and they have created just two turnovers this season. Illinois does not exactly blow teams out – the Illini are coming off a bye week and should be able to avoid turnovers with quarterback Luke Altmyer. The defense will do the rest and break a four-game losing streak to the Boilermakers.
Pick: Illinois wins 35-14 and COVERS the spread.
USC has two Big Ten losses after a stunner at Minnesota. Can the Trojans slow down Penn State’s rushing attack? USC ranks 17th in the Big Ten in run defense, and Penn State will be content to hammer away with Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen against a run defense that has allowed 5.3 yards per carry in Big Ten play. Miller Moss should be able to have success against the Penn State secondary, and that cross-country thing is coming into play. Can the Nittany Lions pass the road test? A desperate USC team keeps it close, but Penn State survives.
Pick: Penn State wins 28-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Another game with a cross-country flight. Cal blew a 25-point lead against Miami in Week 6 and now it faces Pitt – which finally is ranked after a red-hot start. The Panthers are led by Eli Holstein, who ranks third in the ACC in TD passes with 15. Pitt is 5-0 ATS and averages 55.3 points per game at home. That is a tough emotional hangover for Cal to overcome.
Pick: Pitt wins 34-28 and COVERS the spread.
Stanford won its last visit to South Bend in 2022, but the Irish won this matchup 56-23 last season. The Cardinals have a good run defense that allows 3.3 yards per carry, but their quarterbacks have combined for nine TDs and seven interceptions. That will not play well against a Notre Dame defense that ranks sixth in the FBS in pass efficiency defense. Notre Dame creeps closer to the playoff picture with another impressive victory.
Pick: Notre Dame wins 35-13 and FAILS TO COVER the spread.
The Cougars are home and will look to continue their unbeaten season against the Wildcats, an inconsistent team coming off a loss to Texas Tech. BYU ranks fourth in the Big 12 in pass defense, and they have to find a way to slow down SN Preseason All-American receiver Tetairoa McMillan. BYU is 6-2 S/U and 5-3 ATS at home since joining the Big 12 and they should be able to force a few turnovers. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff continues to play well, the Cougars keep pace in the Big 12 race.
Pick: BYU wins 28-21 and COVERS the spread.
This is another huge spread for Georgia, which has failed to cover the last four weeks. Georgia needs to get that rushing attack moving against Mississippi State, which allows 212.8 yards per game on the ground. Mississippi State had a bye week to prepare, but Georgia will overwhelm Mississippi State on both sides. Georgia won the last meeting 45-19 in 2022.
Pick: Georgia wins 42-10 and FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Who has more pressure in this game? Tennessee is coming off a stunning loss at Arkansas, and Josh Heupel is 1-2 against the Gators. Florida coach Billy Napier remains on a perpetual hot seat, but Florida is on a two-game winning streak and has shown improvement around Graham Mertz, who has a 86.4% completion percentage the last two weeks. The Vols’ defense has not allowed 20 points in a game this season. Can Florida avoid the turnovers that could lead to a blowout?
Pick: Tennessee wins 31-17 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
This line has already moved up a half-point and might inch closer to a TD before kickoff. That is high value in the Buckeyes – who have a complete team that features a tag-team running game with Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. Oregon will need to get Jordan James on track against an Ohio State run defense that allows just 73.6 yards per game, and Dillon Gabriel will need to avoid turnovers in the red zone. This is a huge game for both coaches, too. The Buckeyes are 10-7 S/U against top-10 teams under Ryan Day. The Ducks are 2-3 S/U in the same situation with Dan Lanning.
Pick: Ohio State wins 30-22 and COVERS the spread.
BENDER: Ohio State buries Iowa, sets up showdown with Oregon
Is Ole Miss good enough to go into Death Valley at night and win? The Tigers have lost just one home game since Brian Kelly took over in 2022 – and that was against Hendon Hooker-led Tennessee in 2022. Ole Miss receiver Tre Harris suffered a lower body injury last week against South Carolina. That is an injury worth monitoring. This line has ticked up a half-point, which is another sign there is belief in the Rebels.
Pick: Ole Miss wins 35-31 and COVERS the spread.
Is Iowa State the best team in the Big 12? Their gritty formula has worked so far, and the offense features three running backs that average 5.0 yards per carry. West Virginia quarterback Garrett Greene has led the Mountaineers to two straight victories. He has a 53.3% completion percentage with 80-plus rushing yards through those games. If that ticks up to 60% and Greene converts some third downs,, then the Mountaineers could pull off the upset here. The Cyclones have won four of the last five meetings. Still, this feels like a tricky spot.
Pick: West Virginia wins 24-21 in an UPSET.
Both teams had bye weeks to prepare for this game. Colorado has a plus-7 turnover ratio in its last three victories, and Shedeur Sanders will test the Wildcats’ secondary. Kansas State will counter with a relentless rushing attack that features Avery Johnson, DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards – a Colorado transfer. It is a contrast-in-style game, and the Buffaloes will keep this close if they avoid turnovers. This is a chance for Travis Hunter to make another Heisman Trophy statement. Kansas State is 0-2 ATS on the road this season.
Pick: Kansas State wins 31-27 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
MORE: Travis Hunter's Heisman chances climb with his snap count
Ashton Jeanty averages 10.9 yards per carry with 16 TDs – incredible stats for the nation’s leading running rusher. Boise State also leads the FBS with 50.6 points per game. The Broncos have won the last nine games in this series – but they haven’t played since 2020. The Warriors have improved and covered as a double-digit underdog against UCLA in Week 2. This is a much different challenge – and Jeanty will continue his Heisman campaign. Can Hawaii sneak in the back-door cover? To do that, Bradyen Schager will have to avoid turners.
Pick: Boise State wins 42-17 and COVERS the spread.
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Bill Bender graduated from Ohio University in 2002 and started at The Sporting News as a fantasy football writer in 2007. He has covered the College Football Playoff, NBA Finals and World Series for SN. Bender enjoys story-telling, awesomely-bad 80s movies and coaching youth sports.
