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Bill Bender
Rivalry Week is one of the toughest weeks to pick.
The old-adage “throw the records out” always applies, and it leads to memorable moments in those or-else games. We don’t anticipate that changes in 2024.
There are just two games between ranked teams this week, which makes for a large slate between teams ranked in the AP Top 25. No. 3 Texas travels to No. 20 Texas A&M in the renewal of an in-state rivalry that will decide who plays in the SEC championship game against No. 6 Georgia. The Longhorns and the Aggies are the marquee game of the weekend in prime time at 7:30 p.m. ET.
No. 16 South Carolina takes on No. 12 Clemson in the other matchup between ranked teams at 12 p.m. ET. The Tigers are looking to back-door in the College Football Playoff. Will the Gamecocks play spoiler and make their own case?
Of course, there is The Game between No. 2 Ohio State and Michigan. The Wolverines will try to play spoiler and win a fourth straight game against the Buckeyes. That game likely still will be the most-watched game of the weekend.
There are 23 games involving top 25 teams this week. Here is a look at our track record this season.
MORE: SEC title game scenarios | Big 12 | Big Ten | ACC
Here are our picks against the spread for Week 14.
The Green Wave are 9-2 ATS this season and have covered in four straight games. Memphis has allowed 40-plus points three times, and is 1-2 S/U in those losses. The last three meetings have been decided by 10 points or less, so another shootout seems in order.
Pick: Tulane wins 35-28 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Oregon State broke a five-game losing streak with a victory against Washington State, but that was at home. The Beavers have been outscored 114-44 in their last three road games, and Boise State has coasted a little bit. This is a chance for Ashton Jeanty to impress against a run defense that allows 178.2 yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry.
Pick: Boise State wins 37-17 and COVERS the spread.
Will both coaches be back next season? The Cowboys haven’t won a Big 12 game under Mike Gundy, and the Buffaloes are coming off a bad loss against Kansas under second-year coach Deion Sanders. Colorado is 4-0 S/U and 4-0 ATS at home in Big 12 play, and the Cowboys are 0-4 S/U and 1-3 ATS on the road in the conference. We are going against the trend.
Pick: Colorado wins 38-24 and FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Ole Miss enters the Egg Bowl a heavy favorite after a stunning loss to Florida. Quarterback Jaxson Dart issued an apology – and he will bounce back against a Mississippi State defense that allows 461.8 yards per game. It’s still the Egg Bowl, and the Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS as an underdog of 20 points or more under first-year coach Jeff Lebby, who was the offensive coordinator under Lane Kiffin from 2020-21.
Pick: Ole Miss wins 42-19 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Haynes King (shoulder) is hurt again, and that will impact the game plan for the Yellow Jackets. Georgia Tech would turn to Aaron Philo if King can’t go. Georgia has its spot reserved in the SEC championship game, but they are 1-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season – the only cover coming against Clemson in Week 1. Will Georgia unleash another blowout here?
Pick: Georgia wins 35-14 and COVERS the spread.
This is a huge spread for The Game. The Buckeyes are the better team – and they are highly-motivated to end a three-game losing streak to the Wolverines. Michigan’s defense has allowed 50 yards rushing on 53 attempts in its last two games, so look for Ohio State to favor tempo with Will Howard in the short passing game. The Buckeyes’ defense will do the rest against a Wolverines’ passing attack that is non-threating on the road and subject to game-changing turnovers. This game will resemble Michigan’s loss to Texas in Week 2, but the Buckeyes won’t call off the dogs late given the chance. That still is too many points for a rivalry game like this.
Pick: Ohio State wins 30-13 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Tennessee needs a victory to clinch a College Football Playoff spot, and the Commodores are in position to play spoiler one last time. Diego Pavia has a 52.8% completion percentage in losses to South Carolina and LSU, and the defense has allowed 4.8 yards per carry the last two weeks. Dylan Sampson is going to be tough to stop, even at home. The Vols have won the last five meetings by 29.4 points per game. It’s on Vanderbilt to show why this will be different.
Pick: Tennessee wins 29-17 and COVERS the spread.
Clemson can lose this game and still back into the ACC championship game. South Carolina is arguably the hottest team in the SEC at this point. The Gamecocks averages 218.5 rushing yards per game the last four weeks, and Clemson’s run defense has been hit or miss. Can the Gamecocks win in Death Valley again?
Pick: South Carolina wins 28-26 in an UPSET.
MORE: Five CFP chaos scenarios to look for in Rivalry Week
Illinois has a chance to cap a nine-win season against the rival Wildcats, who have taken back-to-back blowouts against Ohio State and Michigan the last two weeks. Will that wear on Northwestern here? The Wildcats won a wild 45-43 shootout last year, but the Illini are better this year. The Illini win with defense this time.
Pick: Illinois wins 28-18 and COVERS the spread.
Army is coming off a blowout loss at Notre Dame, and the Roadrunners are trying to become bowl eligible. UTSA averages 47.7 points per game the last three weeks, and Owen McCown has 23 TDs and seven interceptions this season. The teams have split high-scoring games the last two seasons. Take the over.
Pick: Army wins 34-27 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Penn State can clinch a spot in the College Football Playoff here, and the Nittany Lions might even get a home game. Maryland is stuck in a four-game losing streak, but they are 3-3 ATS as an underdog and hung around against Oregon on Nov. 23. Drew Allar has a 77.3% completion percentage with five TDs and no interceptions the last three games. It’s a lot of points, but Penn State finds a way to cover late.
Pick: Penn State wins 38-10 and COVERS the spread.
Is there room for the Iron Bowl to get wild? We think so. Auburn has put together back-to-back wins, and Alabama has been an inconsistent team on a week-to-week basis. Hugh Freeze and Kalen DeBoer will favor aggressive play-calling, and that will lead to turnovers. Auburn’s defense allows 3.0 yards per carry. Jalen Milroe bounces back and plays hero again, but it won’t be easy.
Pick: Alabama wins 30-20 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Missouri is a three-loss team that has battled injuries throughout the season. Brady Cook and Nate Noel are healthy, and that should make a difference against Arkansas, which clinched bowl eligibility in Week 13. The Tigers are 9-0 ATS as a home favorite through this two-year run, but they are 4-5 ATS in that stretch. Still, Eli Drinkwitz clinches a nine-win season in the new-look SEC. That’s impressive.
Pick: Missouri wins 27-20 and COVERS the spread.
Notre Dame can clinch a spot in the College Football Playoff here, and the Irish’s defense has dominated the last five weeks. USC quarterback Jayden Maiava has shown progress in two starts, but the Irish defense is different. Notre Dame has a plus-13 turnover ratio in its last six games, and they have covered the spread in all of those games. USC is 4-1 S/U at home this season with an overtime loss against Penn State. The Irish’s running game will be the difference, and Jeremiyah Love – who has three 100-yards games the last four weeks – will be the star. The Trojans will make it interesting, but the Irish are a good road dog.
Pick: Notre Dame wins 31-20 and COVERS the spread.
Is this the upset of the week? Syracuse is 4-2 ATS as an underdog this season, and Kyle McCord is an unpredictable high-volume passer. Cam Ward is predictable. He will put up huge numbers, and Miami will take over in the second half. The Hurricanes are 2-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite in ACC play. A shootout seems inevitable, and the Orange can keep it close if McCord limits the turnovers.
Pick: Miami wins 39-31 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Arizona State can clinch a spot in the Big 12 championship game, and the Sun Devils have been balanced on offense with just two turnovers during a four-game win streak. Arizona is in pure spoiler mode after losing five of its last six games. Arizona State is 6-0 ATS when favored by 10 points or less, and only one of the last five games between these teams was decided by one score.
Pick: Arizona State wins 38-23 and COVERS the spread.
SMU clinched its spot in the ACC championship game and can make a case for an at-large berth by finishing 11-1 in the regular season. Cal has five losses by a combined 17 points this season. The Golden Bears have a plus-13 turnover ratio, too. This is a bit of a trap game for the Mustangs, who are 2-4 ATS as a double-digit underdog.
Pick: SMU wins 32-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Indiana has not beat Purdue since 2019 – and the Hoosiers might pour it on here coming off the loss to Ohio State. The Boilermakers are 1-3 ATS as an underdog of 20 or more points, and they lost to Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State by a combined score of 129-10. If Indiana can pour it on here, they will.
Pick: Indiana wins 40-10 and COVERS the spread.
These rivals have not met since 2011, and the winner goes to the SEC championship game. It’s an all-in game for the Aggies, who have no other road to the CFP. Texas has coasted a little bit in the second half of the season, but they still rank third in the FBS with a defense that allows 12.1 points per game. That defense is not getting enough credit. Quinn Ewers (ankle) likely will play through the injury, and he has nine TDs and zero interceptions in his last three games. The rivalry factor is high, but Texas will get through it and reserve its spot in the SEC championship game.
Pick: Texas wins 29-22 and COVERS the spread.
That’s a heavy line on the road between rivals Oregon had a bye week to prepare, however, and the Ducks will have success on the ground against a Huskies’ defense that allowed 200-plus rushing yards in losses to Iowa and Penn State. It’s a tough assignment at Autzen Stadium, and Dan Lanning gets his first victory against Washington.
Pick: Oregon wins 34-16 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Iowa State can clinch a spot in the Big 12 championship with a victory in “Farmageddon” in a battle with the Wildcats. The Cyclones have won three of the last four meetings, but they rank 15th in rush defense in the Big 12. Kansas State has been inconsistent, but it is a simple theme. The Wildcats are 9-0 when quarterback Avery Johnson throws less than two interceptions, and 0-3 when he does. Will the Cyclones get a few turnovers?
Pick: Iowa State wins 33-28 and COVERS the spread.
UNLV can clinch a spot in the Mountain West Conference championship here, and the Rebels are led by quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams, who has 23 total TDs and leads the MWC with a 157.4 passer rating. Nevada is stuck in a five-game losing streak under first-year coach Jeff Choate and has six one-score losses this season. Can they keep this one close?
Pick: UNLV wins 35-21 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
BYU will know what needs to be done ahead of the matchup against Houston, which has scored 13 points in its last two games. BYU is on a two-game slide, and a plus-5 turnover ratio at LaVell Edwards Stadium will be a difference. Will it get the Cougars into the Big 12 championship game?
Pick: BYU wins 33-14 and COVERS the spread.
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Bill Bender graduated from Ohio University in 2002 and started at The Sporting News as a fantasy football writer in 2007. He has covered the College Football Playoff, NBA Finals and World Series for SN. Bender enjoys story-telling, awesomely-bad 80s movies and coaching youth sports.
