The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs meet again in the playoffs for the fourth time in five seasons.
The Bills ended Kansas City’s undefeated season Week 11 in Buffalo. But Sunday’s AFC championship game will at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.
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Patrick Mahomes is undefeated against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in the postseason. The Chiefs are aiming for a historic third consecutive Super Bowl title. Will Allen and the Bills stop Kansas City’s journey to New Orleans? Or will the Chiefs win their third straight AFC championship.
USA TODAY Sports breaks down each position group and analyzes who has the edge.
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Josh Allen is a top-3 quarterback and an MVP candidate. Allen’s produced the second best passer rating among active quarterbacks. But you can’t pick against the three-time Super Bowl champion, three-time Super Bowl MVP and two-time league MVP.
Patrick Mahomes had a down year by his lofty standards. He had a career low in passing yards (3,928) and his touchdown passes (26) tied a career-low during the regular season. But no quarterback makes more game-winning plays in the postseason than Mahomes, which is why he’s led the Chiefs to a seventh straight AFC championship game.
Allen’s Bills got the better of the Chiefs in Week 11 and they are coming off a huge win against Baltimore. But, Mahomes is 3-0 against Allen and the Bills in the postseason.
Advantage: Chiefs
The combination of James Cook and Allen give Buffalo the advantage in the run game. Cook’s enjoyed two straight 1,000-yard seasons and his 16 rushing touchdowns were tied for an NFL-high. The Bills typically dial up Allen’s number in short-yardage situations, and he’s very capable of scrambling for a long gain, as the Chiefs are aware.
Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco was key during Kansas City’s Super Bowl 58 run. Injuries have hindered the running back this year. The Chiefs offense will show market improvement if Pacheco gets going.
Advantage: Bills
Mahomes is the best quarterback in the game. Travis Kelce caught seven of eight targets for 117 yards and a touchdown in the divisional win versus Houston. The connection between Mahomes and Kelce always elevates in the postseason. A huge question for Kansas City is if can they unleash their wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins, Hollywood Brown, Xavier Worthy and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Hopkins is the Chiefs’ X-receiver and Brown can take the top off of the defense. But Worthy was the only wide receiver to record a reception last week.
On the other side, Allen’s favorite targets are wide receiver Khalil Shakir and tight end Dalton Kincaid. Shakir is the only Buffalo player with double-digit receptions in the postseason. Amari Cooper had zero catches on one target versus Baltimore. The Bills need another receiver to make timely catches.
Advantage: Chiefs
The Chiefs offensive line ranked in the top 10 in both run block and pass block win rate. Trey Smith, Creed Humphrey and Joe Thuney are three of the best interior linemen in the NFL. The Chiefs had to disrupt their continuity in the interior and start Thuney at left tackle because they are weak at both tackle positions. Thuney’s performed admirably at left tackle since the switch and Mike Caliendo hasn’t been a liability at left guard.
Kansas City’s three Pro Bowl linemen are the reason why the Chiefs have the advantage along the O-line.
Advantage: Chiefs
Chris Jones is the best three-technique defensive tackle in the NFL. The Chiefs defense is able to get pressure with their front four, and Jones is the central reason why. Kansas City sacked Texans QB C.J. Stroud eight times while pressuring him on over half of his dropbacks in the divisional round win, per Next Gen Stats. Defensive end George Karlaftis is coming off a three-sack performance vs. the Texans.
Ed Oliver is the leader on Buffalo’s defensive line and Greg Rousseau has a team-high two sacks. The Bills also deploy Von Miller as a situational pass rusher.
Advantage: Chiefs
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Buffalo’s defense centers around linebackers Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano. The Bills went 2-2 when Bernard was inactive and has only lost one game with Milano’s active. Bernard had a huge forced fumble and recovery in the divisional win. The two have 18 combined tackles in the playoffs.
Nick Bolton is Kansas City’s top player at linebacker. Bolton wears the green dot (relays defensive play calls to teammates) on the Chiefs defense. He led the team with 106 tackles this season.
Advantage: Bills
Slot cornerback Taron Johnson is the Bills’ best cover corner. Cornerback Christian Benford led the team with 10 passes defensed during the regular season. The Bills defense had 16 interceptions, 11 of which were by defensive backs this year.
Kansas City, however, boasts the best cornerback on the field in Trent McDuffie. McDuffie held Texans WR Nico Collins to one catch on three targets when they were matched up last week. The Chiefs will also have the best safety on the field in Justin Reid. Reid had a team-high seven tackles versus Houston.
Cornerback Jaylen Watson’s return to action is also an advantage for the Chiefs.
Advantage: Chiefs
Harrison Butker is the top kicker remaining in the playoffs. Butker made all three of his field goals in the divisional round.
Butker’s hit 35 of 39 career field goals in the postseason. The Chiefs kicker hasn’t missed a field goal in the postseason since Super Bowl 57.
Chiefs punter Matt Araiza ranked in the top 10 in gross average punt yards during the regular season.
Advantage: Chiefs
Score prediction: Chiefs 26, Bills 22
Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Tyler Dragon on X @TheTylerDragon.
