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Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.
In today’s edition, national political reporter Ben Kamisar breaks down our latest NBC News Deciders Focus Group, which featured voters who supported Nikki Haley in the Republican presidential primary. Plus, chief political analyst Chuck Todd explains why the end of this election feels different from the last two featuring Donald Trump.
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Kamala Harris’ deployment of prominent Republican critics of Donald Trump hasn’t convinced a new focus group of voters who backed Nikki Haley in the GOP presidential primary.
But even if many of them won’t cast their ballot for Harris this fall, the constant controversy surrounding Trump may cost him votes — a dynamic typified by the almost universally negative reaction to the harsh and at times racist rhetoric at the former president’s weekend rally in New York City.
Such was the reaction among the 11 focus group participants in a new NBC News Deciders Focus Group conducted Monday evening, produced in collaboration with Syracuse University and the research firms Engagious and Sago. For many of these Haley supporters, particularly the seven Republicans and three independents, the episode was a reminder of why they soured on Trump in the first place.
“These voters show us two camps of Nikki Haley backers: those so turned off by former President Trump that they’ll vote third-party, stay home or even vote for Vice President Harris to keep Trump out of the White House, and those who will hold their nose and vote Trump because he’s the Republican nominee and they’re Republicans,” said Margaret Talev, the director of Syracuse University’s Institute for Democracy, Journalism and Citizenship in Washington.
“Most of the voters we heard from have known for months which camp they’re in,” she continued. “Endorsements for Harris from the Cheneys, or ex-Trump Cabinet officials, weren’t moving the needle, though the offensive Trump rally at Madison Square Garden might yet sway some still weighing their choices.”
Jennifer S., a 49-year-old Republican from Pennsylvania who voted for Trump in 2020 but is now split about whether to do so again or write in someone else, brought up the rally, criticizing the “racist rhetoric” and saying it was a “terrible reflection of the party.”
“I’m not going to vote for Harris because of it. It still makes me torn. If they had done a very professional event, maybe that would’ve moved the needle a little towards him or something like that. But it keeps me in a place where it makes it hard to fill in that oval,” she said.
Four of these 11 voters plan to vote for Trump or are leaning that way, with another choosing between Trump and a write-in or third party. Two are voting for libertarian Chase Oliver, and the remaining four are either voting for or leaning toward voting for Harris.
Read more from the focus group →
In many ways, the final week of a presidential campaign — for those of us who cover presidential politics — is akin to being in the eye of a hurricane. There’s an eerie calm that you know is about to disappear, but the anticipation is agonizing. There’s not a lot more to report or unearth. All you can do is wait (and continue to prepare).
That preparation includes running through every potential outcome and thinking about how the campaign might get there.
For me, this endgame feels more like 2000 and 2004 than like any of Donald Trump’s previous elections (2016 and 2020). Why do I say that? For one thing, the polls are indicating a much closer race this time than in 2016 or 2020. The last time the polls were collectively this close in the final month of a campaign was during George W. Bush’s two successful presidential elections.
And I’d argue that in both of Bush’s elections, but 2000 especially, the campaigns ended in a sort of draw, in that both parties split the battleground states, rather than their being swept by one candidate. From 2008 through 2020, the winning candidate either swept or nearly swept the final six to eight battleground states.
This year, one could easily see the seven core battlegrounds splitting fairly evenly.
Right now, neither party looks like it’s on sure footing going into Election Day. Both parties feel optimistic, but neither feels overly confident (despite the public bravado from some in Trump world).
And that leads me to what I think is the most likely result next week — a parity election for the House and the White House, taking days or weeks to figure out who narrowly eked out enough electoral votes or House seats to claim a majority.
There are so many cross-currents in this election that a tie (of sorts) feels like the likeliest outcome. Democrats are dominating on the money end of things and seem to have a lot more resources to tap across the board to help operationally. Republicans have the mood music on their side, meaning the sourness about the economy and the current Democratic president gives them the natural “time for a change” messaging that can be persuasive.
Read more from Chuck →
That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
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