Manage your account
…
Just because a team barely sneaks into the NCAA tournament and gets shipped to Dayton for the First Four, that doesn't mean to ignore it in your bracket.
In every NCAA tournament since the First Four was introduced — except 2019 — a team out of that group has won a first-round game later in the week. Two teams, VCU in 2011 and UCLA in 2021, went from First Four to Final Four.
With that backdrop, here are the picks for Wednesday's First Four games, with the odds from BetMGM:
[Full NCAA tournament bracket revealed | Printable bracket]
South region picks | East region picks | West Region picks | Midwest region picks
BetMGM betting splits: 48% of bets, 47% of money on American
As with many teams in the First Four, Mount St. Mary's got hot for three games in the MAAC tournament and got a bid. The Mountaineers were an underwhelming 12-8 in conference play. American was a little better, going 13-5 in the Patriot League, and had a strong win over Navy to get the automatic bid. Mount St. Mary's will turn it over a lot, which gives American the nod.
From the bookmaker: "Mount St. Mary's-American is taking better advance handle than the St. Francis-Alabama State game did on Tuesday. Currently sitting American -2.5 with a total of 129.5. Balanced action on the side." — Thomas Gable, BetMGM sportsbook director
BetMGM betting splits: 55% of bets, 76% of money on Xavier
Texas is another team that might not have deserved to be in the NCAA tournament. It went 11-2 against a soft non-conference schedule — losing to the only two top-50 KenPom teams it played, Ohio State and UConn — and then went 8-13 after that. Xavier won its last seven games before losing by two to Marquette in the Big East tournament. It's reasonable to think Texas can keep it close. It had a 6-12 record in league play, but the SEC is really tough. If you want to think getting out of the SEC will be a new start for the Longhorns, that's reasonable. But Texas lost a ton of games for a tournament team and that seems unlikely to change.
From the bookmaker: "Xavier-Texas will be heavily bet. Took sharp money on Xavier -1.5 at open, it's now -2.5. It's been bouncing between -2.5 and -3. Xavier moneyline has been pretty popular as well. Total is 151.5 currently." — Gable
