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Topic:Stock Market
Our share market and the ASX 200 are set to lift after a Wall Street bounce. And gold is now above $US3,000 an ounce.
Follow the day's financial news and insights from our specialist business reporters on our live blog.
Disclaimer: this blog is not intended as investment advice.
By Stephanie Chalmers
Prices current around 9:00am AEDT
By Daniel Ziffer
If you missed Radio National Breakfast, listen back to the full interview with Jim Chalmers through this link.
By Daniel Ziffer
The hit to the Australian economy from US President Donald Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminium will be manageable, the treasurer says.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers had his department model the impacts and described them as "concerning but manageable".
He told ABC radio earlier today: "It's the broader, indirect impacts that come from this serious escalation of trade tensions around the world,…
The tariff is a tax on imports into the US, increasing the price to make it less competitive against domestic manufacturers.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers had his department model the impacts and described them as "concerning but manageable".
"It's the broader, indirect impacts that come from this serious escalation of trade tensions around the world, which is much more concerning to us.
"This is a new world of uncertainty, and the pace of change in the world when it comes to rewriting the rules of global economic engagement has quickened since the new administration took office in the US."
By Daniel Ziffer
Australian coal miner New Hope has posted a rise in first-half profit on Tuesday, reflecting higher output and sales coupled with reduced costs, prompting it to raise its dividend and announce a share buyback.
Reuters reports that for the half year ended January 31, New Hope posted a net profit after tax of A$340.3 million, up from A$251.7 million a year earlier, which beat the Visible Alpha consensus forecast of A$302.2 million.
Total coal sales for the period rose 44% to 5.4 million metric tons, driven primarily by a significant increase in output at the New Acland mine in Queensland, where production rose tenfold.
The boost in volume helped offset lower average realised prices for coal during the reported period.
The company, backed by the jump in profit, announced a share buyback program of A$100 million, set to commence around April 1, 2025, and to be completed within a year.
Here's chairman Robert Millner AO:
"The buy-back will benefit all our shareholders via reduction in number of shares on issue, thereby supporting the company's return on equity, earnings per share and dividend per share, for all shareholders who continue to hold shares in the company."
New Hope declared an interim dividend of 19 Australian cents, above 17 Australian cents last year.
By Daniel Ziffer
Great read from my colleague David Taylor about the speech by the Reserve Bank's Sarah Hunter, and other warnings about our current turbulence.
By Daniel Ziffer
Reserve Bank assistant governor Sarah Hunter has told an audience the central bank is more cautious than the market about the prospects for further interest rate cuts.
Last month it cut the cash rate for the first time in more than four years, making it cheaper to buy and borrow money.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates by a quarter-point to 4.1% at its February meeting, with the board saying it did not want to lag other central banks that had already eased.
Market positioning currently implies a 65% probability the bank will cut again at its May policy meeting, with traders expecting a third cut by the end of the year.
But in a speech in Sydney on Tuesday, RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter reiterated recent remarks by the bank's top policymakers that the market remained overly optimistic about the prospects for further rate cuts.
"As the governor and deputy governor have both indicated recently, the February decision reflected a judgement by the board that it was the right time to take some restrictiveness away, but the board were more cautious than the market about prospects for further easing."
In recent weeks, both Governor Michele Bullock and deputy Andrew Hauser have said the bank does not believe a series of rate cuts will be required.
However, there remained a high degree of uncertainty about the RBA's central forecasts, Hunter said, with the board paying close attention in particular to the knock-on impact of policymaking by the United States.
"One of the things we are focused on right now is US policy settings, the impact of these on the global economy and how this flows through to activity and inflation here in Australia," she said.
Hunter said a pick-up in household consumption in the December quarter was not a temporary bounce caused by seasonal spending, but reflected "a genuine improvement in underlying momentum".
By Daniel Ziffer
Korean conglomerate Hanwha has taken a 9.9% stake in Australian ship builder Austal.
Shares have rocketed +9.7% to $4.20, Reuters reports.
The Korean company offered $4.45 each for 41.2 million shares in the WA-based company, which represents a 16.2% premium to Austal's closing share price on Monday of $3.83.
By Daniel Ziffer
Trading has begun on the Australian stock market and the key ASX 200 index, which tracks the value of our 200 largest listed companies, is up +6.3 points or 0.08% to 7,860.4 points in early trade
By Daniel Ziffer
In case you're wondering, 'Hey, how do they come up with this stuff?' here's a look at the methodology that researchers used to build the data about the cost of working from home (WFH).
Enjoy.
By Daniel Ziffer
New research from the Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA) says you'll pay a price for working from home.
The price is money.
A growing body of international research suggests employers who want staff to return to the office may need to pay higher wages to get what they want, according to Daniel Beadle and James Brooks, economists at CEDA.
"We found that since 2020, workers who have hybrid or fully-remote working arrangements earn nearly six per cent less than otherwise similar people who cannot or do not work from home."
Here's how that looks.
The analysis used statistical modelling that closely followed techniques used in recent UK research, "which found that since the COVID-19 pandemic, remote workers in the UK have seen two to seven per cent lower wage growth than people who work fully onsite".
The study compared the wages of those who stated they had formal working-from-home agreements with their employer or worked more than 12 hours per week from home, with those who did not. The data covered 2017 to 2023.
"After accounting for these other factors that can influence a person’s wage, our modelling found that since the pandemic, individuals who work from home have experienced 5.8 per cent lower wages than those who do not.
"This would mean a worker on the average annual pay who works from home would earn around $4400 less than someone who does not.
"Our results were consistent with the two to seven per cent lower wage growth in the UK study.
"They were also consistent with the results of an Australian survey in 2023 that found workers who have some capacity to work from home would take a pay cut of around $3000 to $6000 – or four to eight per cent of their salary – to work remotely some of the time."
Read the report for yourself here.
By Stephanie Chalmers
Leading budget watcher, independent economist Chris Richardson, says Australia's economic luck could be running out with the economy facing many headwinds.
Ex-Cyclone Alfred will deliver a blow to the budget bottom line and raise inflation, but there are a range of other significant risks.
Watch the interview with Kirsten Aiken on The Business here:
By Stephanie Chalmers
Another year, another electric shock, writes chief business correspondent Ian Verrender.
In what's becoming something of an event, Australian households — at least those outside Western Australia — are being softened up for further punishing rounds of power bill hikes.
For a nation that is one of the world's biggest energy exporters, it is a situation that defies logic and reeks of an epic policy failure.
This time around, we're told the rollout of new poles and wires to expand the grid to areas where renewable energy is being built is to blame.
Three years ago, it was Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine and its disruption of global energy markets.
No-one, it seems, is willing to call out the obvious culprit, the one identified by Anthony Albanese, Scott Morrison and Malcolm Turnbull at various points of their prime ministerships.
We export too much gas and don't leave enough to use at home.
Read more here:
By Reuters
US retail sales rebounded in February, suggesting that the economy continued to grow in the first quarter, though at a moderate pace as tariffs on imports and mass firings of federal government workers weigh on sentiment.
Retail sales rose 0.2 per cent last month after a revised 1.2 per cent decline in January, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Monday (US time).
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales, which are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation, advancing 0.6 per cent after a previously reported 0.9 per cent drop in January.
That decline followed hefty gains in the fourth quarter and winter storms in many parts of the country in January as well as wildfires in California.
But with consumer sentiment sinking to a near 2.5-year low in March, the momentum is unlikely to be sustained.
US President Donald Trump's raft of tariffs, which have unleashed a trade war, have ignited worries about inflation as well as job and income losses, developments that could undercut consumer spending.
Mass layoffs of public workers as part of an unprecedented campaign by the Trump administration to shrink the federal government are also seen hurting spending.
Bank of America card data showed early signs of softening discretionary spending such as at restaurants in February in the Washington DC metropolitan area, which includes parts of Maryland and Virginia.
A stock market sell-off could curb spending, predominantly driven by high-income households, while rising food prices could squeeze low-income households.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said early this month the economy might slow as it transitions from public spending towards more private spending, calling it a "detox period."
By Daniel Ziffer
So, data came out last week about what's happening with the growth of the economy in the 20 biggest economies in the world.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) covers almost 40 nations, and last week's data on the gross domestic product (GDP) of the top 20 has interesting elements, which might provide some calm given the gyrations of global stock markets in the past week.
Here's what their recent research note had to say:
"Quarterly G20 GDP growth rates remained relatively stable over the past two years, ranging between 0.6 and 1.0%. (As seen in the table, above). However, the picture was mixed among G20 countries."
"Growth rebounded noticeably in Türkiye (from -0.1% to 1.7%) and in South Africa (from -0.1% to 0.6%) in the fourth quarter.
"Growth increased in China (from 1.3% to 1.6%), India (from 1.4% to 1.6%), Australia (from 0.3% to 0.6%), Japan (from 0.4% to 0.6%), Canada (from 0.5% to 0.6%), and in Italy and the United Kingdom (from 0.0% to 0.1% in both countries).
"Growth was stable in Indonesia (at 1.2%) and Korea (at 0.1%). By contrast, the remaining G20 countries experienced either contractions or slowdowns in growth in Q4 compared with Q3.
"GDP contracted in Mexico (by 0.6%), Germany (by 0.2%) and France (by 0.1%). Growth slowed in the United States (from 0.8% to 0.6%), Saudi Arabia (from 0.9% to 0.5%) and Brazil (from 0.7% to 0.2%).
"Initial annual estimates derived from quarterly data indicate that G20 GDP growth slowed slightly to 3.2% in 2024, compared with 3.4% in 2023.
"Among the 17 G20 countries for which data is available, Germany was the only one to record a decline in 2024, with GDP contracting by 0.2%, following a 0.3% contraction in 2023."
By Daniel Ziffer
Here it is: the latest data for the price of petrol across the nation.
This is for one litre of unleaded petrol and it's an average over the seven days to Sunday.
Sydney's weekly change is 16.2 cents (!)
By Daniel Ziffer
The national average price of a litre of unleaded petrol rose 1 cent to 184.7 cents in the week to Sunday.
Weekly data from the Australian Institute of Petroleum details the lift, which still puts the average higher than last week (183.7 cents) but below the past four weeks (185 cents) and the 12-month average figure of 186.9 cents.
By Daniel Ziffer
ICYMI: Monday's video finance report
Did you miss Alan Kohler’s finance report last night? Don’t stress, we’ve got you.
The numbers refer to yesterday’s data, so catch up on where we’ve been, to get a steer on where you’re going today.
By Daniel Ziffer
It's been threatening for a while, and according to Eikon it's happened.
Gold is trading above $US3,000 an ounce for the first time.
It's currently at $US3,001.25, up +0.6% for the session.
By Daniel Ziffer
ASX 200 futures: +0.7% to 7,913 points
Australian dollar: Flat at 63.84 US cents
Dow Jones: +0.8% to 41,841.6 points
S&P 500: +0.6% to 5,675.1 points
Nasdaq: +0.3% to 17,808.6 points
FTSE: +0.6% to 8,680.2 points
EuroStoxx: +0.8% to 5,445.5 points
Spot gold: +0.6% to $US3,000.86/ounce
Brent crude: +0.6% to $US71/barrel
Iron ore: -1.7% to $US102.85/tonne
Bitcoin: +2% to $US84,301
Prices current around 7:30am AEDT.
Live updates on the major ASX indices:
By Daniel Ziffer
Good morning!
Hello, I'm Daniel Ziffer from the ABC business team and I'll be taking you through the morning on our business, finance and economics blog.
Overnight, Wall Street indices bumped higher.
The blue-chip Dow Jones of 30 mega-companies like Boeing and Visa was +0.8% to 41,841.6 points.
The broader S&P 500 that covers 500 of the largest listed companies in the US +0.6% to 5,675.1 points.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq was +0.3% to 17,808.6 points.
These numbers are live, and trading is continuing, we’ll update you when there’s a firm closing price.
The value of our market is set to expand, with the ASX 200 futures index tipping a lift of +0.7% or 57 points to 7,913 points.
There’s lots to get to, all of it news, analysis and information and none of it financial advice.
Let’s get started!
Topic:Government and Politics
Analysis by Ian Verrender
Topic:Reserve Bank Of Australia
Topic:Child Care
Topic:World Politics
Topic:Islam
Topic:Homicide
Topic:Reserve Bank Of Australia
Topic:Family and Relationships
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