political writer
From his strategic partnership with President Donald Trump to his headline-grabbing border policies, Gov. Greg Abbott is riding a wave of Republican popularity that has raised his national profile and could put a 2028 White House campaign within reach if he wants it.
Few Republican governors have Abbott’s national stature, and the Texas governor for the past decade has basked in praise from Trump, who devoted part of his Jan. 20 inaugural speeches to lauding Abbott as the “leader of the pack” among the nation’s governors.
At the least, Abbott will have the choice to run for president or stay as governor in the nation’s most important and prosperous Republican state. Either way, he can strongly influence GOP politics on a national scale.
“That’s something that really came to mind when I saw Trump praise Abbott during that second inaugural speech,” said Aaron Kall, a University of Michigan political scientist and author of the book Debating the Donald.
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“Abbott and Trump are similar. A lot of the governor’s actions are designed to solicit media attention on a larger, national stage. That suggests the potential for seeking something beyond being governor of Texas, and it will be a wide-open race in 2028,” Kall said.
Abbott is, for now, focused on his future in Texas, his chief political consultant, Dave Carney, said.
“The governor has been consistent that he has the second-best job in the country, and he loves what he’s doing and he’s going to run for reelection,” Carney said. “That’s what he’s focused on, Texas. He told the president when he [Trump] was a candidate that he has no interest in going to Washington.”
Even so, speculation about Abbott’s future persists.
Abbott and Trump see eye-to-eye on immigration, border security and reducing government regulation, providing common ground for one of the governor’s newest objectives — federal reimbursement for $11 billion spent on state border-security efforts during the Biden administration. Abbott has made several treks to Washington to rally support for the payout.
Buttering Texas’ toast is one benefit to being cozy with Trump. From a political perspective, the Trump-Abbott partnership improves his standing with Trump loyalists and conservative Republicans outside of Texas.
Abbott briefly pondered a presidential run during the 2024 cycle and made a few appearances in battleground states before the presidential campaign season. But he never fully explored a candidacy and backed away from the prospect when Trump emerged as the clear GOP frontrunner.
Term limits set up an open race for the Oval Office in 2028.
“I wouldn’t predict if he’s going to run or not, but he’s definitely going to look at it, especially if we continue on the trajectory as a state that we are now,” said Republican political consultant Vinny Minchillo, who worked on Trump’s presidential campaign. “How could you not?”
Republican political consultant Brendan Steinhauser said: “Greg Abbott’s stock is rising.”
“He’s obviously an ally of the president, and they have a mutual interest in working together on the border in particular,” Steinhauser said. “It’s hard to think beyond that. There’s just different challenges that come with a Cabinet appointment or a VP slot or certainly running for president. Those are sometimes treacherous paths to follow politically.”
Anyone contemplating a run for president in 2028 would have to account for a crowded field that is expected to include Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and many others.
Abbott has announced that he’s running for reelection in 2026 and started this year with $70 million in his campaign account. There is little standing in the way of a fourth four-year term.
Some political analysts say it’s common for Texas boys and girls to grow up wanting to be governor, then president. The last two sitting governors – Rick Perry and George W. Bush – have run for president.
Asked about his aspirations three times in the past seven months, Abbott told The Dallas Morning News each time that his focus was on his job as governor, not a federal appointment or campaign.
“My focus is on Texas,” said Abbott in July and again in January.
Andrew Mahaleris, a spokesman for Abbott, told The News “the governor is fully focused on this legislative session and delivering results for Texans.”
Carney, Abbott’s political guru, conceded that In presidential politics, you never say never.
“You never know what will happen in ‘27, but I don’t really think he’s interested in it,” Carney said.
Lisa Turner, a Democrat and state director of the Lone Star Project, laughed at the notion of Abbott as a viable presidential candidate. He barely registered on straw polls by Republican groups before the 2024 GOP primaries, and unlike Bush, Abbott lacks the crossover appeal needed to attract broad support, she said.
“Maybe he has the ambition to do it, but I honestly don’t know who he would appeal to on a broad scale,” Turner said. “If he ran for president, he would be embarrassed, but I’m all for him trying. If government can’t be good, it should at least be entertaining.”
A former Texas Supreme Court justice and attorney general, Abbott has long used the federal government as his political foil.
As attorney general, he sued President Barack Obama’s administration dozens of times, including a successful challenge to a 2014 order offering deportation protection to undocumented parents of children who were U.S. citizens or legal residents.
Abbott’s feud with the federal government subsided during Trump’s first term but was renewed when President Joe Biden took office in 2021, the year the governor launched Operation Lone Star to focus state resources on border security.
Abbott wasn’t done.
While seeking reelection to a third term, Abbott in 2022 began busing migrants from the southern border to cities controlled by Democrats, including New York, Chicago, Washington and Philadelphia. The move, Abbott said, was designed to highlight Biden’s failure to secure the border.
As the cities struggled to accommodate waves of migrants, immigration became a national issue — one that helped catapult Trump to the White House.
Abbott still has Trump’s back on border security.
Under the governor’s direction, Texas has built nearly 60 miles of border wall, with another 18 miles underway. He has offered Trump billions of dollars in state assets to aid Trump’s promise of mass deportations, including state-owned land to house detention facilities, thousands of prison cells to hold migrants and military bases to house federal authorities.
An appreciative Trump gave the Texas governor big praise at one of his January inauguration events, calling him a “great man, great leader” and the “leader of the pack” among governors.
“He was a very popular governor, but now he’s like an unbeatable governor, because of your border policies,” Trump said, as Abbott grinned in the crowd. “He’s doing a great job. He’s doing a phenomenal job, but now you’re going to have a partner that’s going to work with you.”
Trump’s praise could help set the table for a presidential bid.
“If the governor does have higher ambitions, his direct experience with immigration and economic issues can be very helpful to him personally in a Republican primary,” Kall said. “Those are the same issues that helped Trump win in 2024.”
“It’s Trump’s party,” said Dallas-based conservative radio talk host Mark Davis. “To the degree that Gov. Abbott is on board for that and a valuable ally in that, all it does is help Abbott. If he continues on a track of being a really valuable ally, a really valuable partner in a Republican era defined by Trump, Abbott gets even stronger still.”
Abbott’s biggest political asset — the economic success of Texas — could boost a run for president, as well as provide a reason to reject a White House bid.
“We’re better off because of what Abbott and the Texas Legislature has done,” said former Texas Republican Party Chairman Chad Wilbanks. “Taking that message and those policies to the national level would bode well for Gov. Abbott, depending on what he wants to do in the future.”
If Abbott wins reelection in 2026, he’ll have a shot at becoming the state’s longest serving governor. Perry served 14 years.
Leading Texas could be more pleasant than leading the country.
“Texas has a great economy and is the most important red state,” said Republican consultant and lobbyist Bill Miller. “It’s like being president of a small or medium-sized country, and he’s controlling all of it.”
Minchillo agreed.
“It’s not only that he’s well-positioned nationally, but how Texas is positioned nationally,” Minchillo said. “He wants his legacy to be that Texas has overtaken California as the place to be, as the state where everything happens.”
“There’s the old saying that Texas is its own country,” Minchillo said. “Abbott’s got a unique relationship with Trump. Where Trump needs his help, Abbott can offer it. The relationship is almost like two heads of state, more than a president and a governor.”
No other job, however, is more powerful than the American president.
After praising Abbott and the inauguration event, Trump made a quip reminding everyone that while Abbott is a big shot in Texas, he’s not on the president’s level.
“We couldn’t get you up in the front row?” Trump joked.
The Howard University graduate and Chicago native has covered four presidential campaigns and written extensively about local, state and national politics. Before The News, he was a reporter at The Kansas City Star and The Chicago Defender. You can catch Gromer every Sunday at 8:30 a.m. on NBC 5's Lone Star Politics.
