All season, UCLA and USC were the clear cream of the crop in the Big Ten. When USC swept the regular season series – and with it, the Big Ten regular season title – it seemed that the Trojans might even be a tier ahead of their rival.
Then, though, the Bruins won the third matchup between the teams on Sunday in the Big Ten tournament final, splitting the season’s conference championships and evening the scales between the two. Both teams are likely to be 1-seeds in the NCAA Tournament, and we could very well see a rematch in the Final Four or even the national title game.
All the games have been played. Here is a look at what could be coming on Selection Sunday when it comes to the Big Ten:
We will give the nod to the Bruins here even though USC has the overall edge in the season series. After all, UCLA has only lost to one team the entire season and now has a win over that same team to go along with a conference tournament title. The Bruins showed a lot of mental toughness to overcome an early deficit against a team that seemed to have their number.
USC was a little underwhelming in the Big Ten tournament, struggling to separate from Indiana and Michigan before going completely cold in the second half against UCLA. Still, the Trojans were one bad quarter from a season sweep of both UCLA and the Big Ten titles. They looked a little spent in that fourth quarter, so a week of rest should do them some good.
The Buckeyes barely squeaked by Iowa in their Big Ten tournament opener and then got rocked by 29 against UCLA. Kevin McGuff has a lot of work to do, because this streak of poor play extends to over a month ago. The NCAA Tournament draw might be particularly important for this team which relies so much on its ball pressure.
I am going to bite the bullet and drop Maryland back behind Michigan based on two factors. The first is the Wolverines’ 98-71 dismantling of the Terrapins in the Big Ten tournament. The second is that Michigan currently holds a higher spot in the NET Rankings than Maryland.
Overall, the Wolverines are simply playing better basketball than the Terps right now. Hanging with USC after beating Washington and Maryland consecutively is an encouraging sign that Michigan is still building. Maryland, meanwhile, feels like it might be falling flat.
Michigan State continued its struggles by going one-and-done in Indianapolis, falling to an underseeded Iowa team by 13. Iowa was by no means your average 11-seed in a conference tournament, so the loss was not quite as bad as it looked. That being said, the Spartans are another team that appears to be trending down rather than up heading into the tournament.
Iowa’s strong performance in Indianapolis was hardly surprising given the way it surged in the final six weeks of the season. The Hawkeyes’ run could have extended even further if not for a couple of possessions not going their way in the final moments against Ohio State. This team will probably be underseeded again in the NCAA Tournament and could be a popular Cinderella pick.
A close loss to Nebraska in Indianapolis is not the worst defeat in the world, but it has now been almost a month since the Fighting Illini won a game. The four losses in that time all came against good teams so it has not affected their seeding projection too much. It is just tough to enter the Big Dance without having that muscle memory for winning.
A strong win over Oregon and a close loss to USC should be enough to alleviate any concerns the Hoosiers may have had about sliding out of the field. The Hoosiers are a top-20 team in 3-point percentage but only shoot them at the 75th highest rate in the country. Leaning into that strength a bit more could pay dividends when March Madness tips off.
Oregon was not particularly close to contending with Indiana in a way that belies the one-spot difference in seeding. The Ducks do not seem capable of beating good teams anymore, so this is where they end up: They are in the field, but winning their first-round game will be a struggle.
Nebraska and Washington have incredibly similar profiles, so we have a choice to make here. Do we give the edge to the team that beat the other by 21 a few weeks ago (as Washington did at Nebraska on Feb. 23) or the team that went one extra round in the Big Ten tournament?
It is best to avoid making NCAA Tournament decisions based on head-to-head results because you cannot compare every team that way. Nebraska is slightly ahead in the NET and has a better overall record, so this feels like a reasonable conclusion.
The Golden Gophers probably needed to win a game in Indianapolis to make the field. Instead, Washington beat them handily, simultaneously hurting Minnesota’s resume and bolstering that of another bubble team. The season’s close has been tough on the Gophers, and they will likely be on the outside looking in on Selection Sunday.
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