The NFL playoffs are down to just three games, with the winners of the AFC and NFC championship games on Sunday advancing to Super Bowl 59.
The slate begins with the NFC championship game, where the Philadelphia Eagles will host a Washington Commanders team that few expected to get this far in the team’s first season under head coach Dan Quinn. The Eagles (14-3) earned their place by reeling off three rushing touchdowns of 44 yards or longer to beat the Los Angeles Rams 28-22 in the divisional round. The Commanders (12-5), meanwhile, authored a stunning 45-31 upset of the top-seeded Detroit Lions thanks in no small part to a 28-point second quarter.
The AFC championship game will be up next, with the Buffalo Bills (13-4) getting a playoff rematch against the Kansas City Chiefs (15-2). Last year in the divisional round, the Chiefs survived a dramatic ending to defeat the Bills on the road. Buffalo squeaked into this round with a 27-25 win thanks in part to some crucial drops and turnovers from the Baltimore Ravens. For its part, Kansas City held off the Houston Texans in a 23-14 win that came with plenty of controversy after some huge calls went in favor of the Chiefs.
Here are how the experts, analysts, and data models see Sunday’s AFC and NFC championship games shaking out:
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∎ USA TODAY: Eagles 24, Commanders 21
“The Eagles may also be one of the few NFL teams capable of forcing Daniels into turnovers, as three of his nine interceptions came in his two games against Philadelphia. … The rubber match of this divisional series figures to be exciting either way. If the unflappable Daniels can pull off yet another upset, he will get a chance to become the first rookie quarterback to start a Super Bowl. But on paper, the Eagles’ running game and the experience of Hurts, Barkley and Co. should give them the edge in their quest to outlast their divisional rival.”
∎ ESPN: Eagles to win, but bet against the spread
“I feel like this line is overvaluing the Eagles by a point or two. The Commanders have already beaten the Eagles once this season. … In the divisional round, the Eagles got another 200-plus rushing yard performance and were +2 in turnover margin against the Rams and still didn’t cover. … I picked Philly to win the NFC and I’ll stand by that, but I feel like this line should respect the Commanders a bit more than it does.”
∎ Sporting News: Commanders to win 31-27
“The Commanders have big momentum on their side after taking it to the Buccaneers and Lions, while the Eagles survived the Packers and Rams, who made a lot more mistakes than they did. Washington has that feel of seeing through their big surprise, while Philadelphia has seemed headed for an eventual letdown.”
∎ The Athletic: Model gives Eagles 68% chance of knocking off Commanders
∎ USA TODAY: Chiefs 27, Bills 24
“Allen and the Bills will fight hard to make a game of this, but the Chiefs may be able to slow down Buffalo’s offense – which lacks a clear-cut No. 1 receiver – just enough to position themselves for a victory. With the game being played in Kansas City, that should give the Chiefs the edge needed to get to a third consecutive Super Bowl.”
∎ The Athletic: Chiefs given 54% chance of victory
∎ Sporting News: Chiefs win 27-24 in yet another nail-biter
“The Chiefs will have home-field and be the more well-rounded team in all three phases. They also should benefit from getting homer calls and ‘non-calls’ on penalties. Officiating favors the hosts, and Kansas City gets an extra lean there.”
∎ ESPN: Lay the favorite
“Credit to Buffalo for taking advantage of Baltimore’s myriad mistakes, but can you really count on another +3 turnover differential to get you through the AFC Championship game? … Let’s not forget the officiating here, which tends to side with Mahomes. Disagree? Since Kansas City committed 11 penalties for 120 yards against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV (2021), the Chiefs have been penalized 30 fewer times for 222 fewer yards than their opponents in their ensuing 11 playoff appearances. I’ll lay it here.”
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