The four years between Donald Trump’s first term in office and his second were marked by an extraordinary political shift in Florida.
In January 2021, President Joe Biden entered the White House with Florida ostensibly still on the map of battleground states. Republicans held power in Tallahassee, but by simple majorities in the state House and Senate.
Republican state officials were openly antagonistic toward the Biden presidency, fighting the federal government on immigration policy, health care, COVID-19 vaccines and a slew of other issues.
Voters approved of the state’s conservative direction and disapproved of Democrats’ vision for the country. By 2024, Florida had Republican supermajorities in the Legislature and a voting population that went to Trump by 13 points.
With Trump set to retake the presidency Monday, the MAGA politics of Washington will again be aligned with Tallahassee.
“There will be a much higher level of collaboration between state and federal government these next four years,” said U.S. Rep. Laurel Lee, a Republican who represents a congressional district that covers part of Hillsborough, Polk and Pasco counties.
But what does a second Trump administration mean for Florida? The returning president has already signaled he’ll be making some big moves that could have outsized effects on the Sunshine State.
Here are four key areas to watch.
As a candidate, Trump vowed to enact the “largest deportation program in American history.”
Florida is among the states with the largest population of immigrants living in the country illegally.
This week, Gov. Ron DeSantis announced plans for a special session in which he called for state laws requiring local officials to participate in deportations under penalty of suspension from office. DeSantis also wants the Legislature to create a statewide immigration officer to oversee collaboration between the state and the feds.
“We must seize the opportunity to work with the new Trump Administration and to hit the ground running and end the illegal immigration crisis,” DeSantis posted to X Wednesday.
That collaboration stands in contrast to how the state and federal government handled the immigration issue under Biden. DeSantis routinely criticized Biden for the spike in crossings at America’s southern border under his watch. He sent state law enforcement to help federal agents apprehend thousands of migrants at the border.
In 2022, the governor made national news when an initiative used state taxpayer money to fly migrants from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard in Massachusetts. (Some of the migrants said they were convinced to take the flight under false pretenses; DeSantis’ office has denied that claim.)
With a federal administration that supports the same approach on the border as he does, DeSantis won’t have to go his own way on immigration.
Health care was another area in which the Republicans in Tallahassee repeatedly butted heads with the Biden administration.
Top federal officials urged Americans to get vaccinated for COVID-19, while DeSantis’ surgeon general, Joseph Ladapo, warned about what he described as the dangers of the vaccines. DeSantis pushed for a state grand jury investigation into vaccine manufacturers. (The investigation, which wrapped earlier this month, resulted in no charges.)
There was a stalemate over prescription drug shipments from Canada. Florida officials applied to import the drugs, and Biden administration officials spent years considering the proposal before ultimately approving it in January. As of November, state officials had not activated the program.
The DeSantis and Biden administrations also fought over access to KidCare, a joint state and federal program that gives discounted health care to kids whose families make a bit too much money to qualify for traditional Medicaid.
In 2024, the Biden administration finalized a rule requiring states to keep kids enrolled in KidCare even if their families can’t pay for premiums. Florida officials challenged this rule in a case that is ongoing. It’s not clear how the incoming Trump administration will handle the KidCare dispute.
But in general, the Trump administration is expected to take a much more Republican-friendly approach to health care.
For instance, former U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz, who’s close to the president-elect, said he expects the federal government to allow for Medicaid work requirements — long a policy goal of conservatives. (Those opposed to a work requirement say such a policy is unnecessary because most Floridians on Medicaid are either already working or too sick or disabled to gain employment.)
In general, Gaetz said if Trump likes what Florida proposes, he can make his administration prioritize the state’s policy requests.
“When the president says do it, it can cut like a hot knife through butter,” Gaetz said.
On his way out of office, Biden issued a series of environmental orders that have been criticized by Republicans. He moved to ban offshore drilling in more than 625 million acres of coastal waters. Trump has pledged to undo that ban.
The Biden administration also moved to limit red snapper fishing off Florida’s waters — a move that has drawn DeSantis’ ire. Trump could also reverse that proposed rule.
Generally, DeSantis has asked Trump for more leeway from the federal government to manage environmental projects. In particular, he wants the state to be in charge of a key Everglades restoration project. Such work would be more efficient if done without so much bureaucratic red tape, DeSantis has said.
“Send us the funds, give us the authority, and let us get to work,” DeSantis said at a news conference earlier this month.
Some environmental advocates say that’s a bad idea because the federal government should closely supervise such projects. But it’s possible Trump could delegate the authority for environmental projects to friendly governors like DeSantis.
During Trump’s first presidency, DeSantis was a key ally. This time, it’s more complicated.
DeSantis challenged Trump for the presidency in 2024, and Trump’s chief of staff, Susie Wiles, is a DeSantis enemy. Wiles once worked for DeSantis, but her 2019 ouster from his orbit left bruised egos on both sides.
It’s far from certain that the Trump administration and state officials will remain in lockstep on every policy area.
For example, billionaire and Trump booster Elon Musk has defended corporations for using H-1B visas to hire skilled immigrant workers. DeSantis has said the program has “big problems.”
It’s not clear where Trump will come down on the issue.
But there are signs that the Trump-DeSantis relationship is strengthening. When DeSantis called for the special session on immigration and other issues for later this month, Republican state leaders quickly panned the idea, arguing in a letter that such a call was “premature.”
But Trump praised DeSantis for calling the session. It starts Jan. 27, a week from Inauguration Day.
Kirby Wilson is a politics reporter, covering the leaders of Florida and explaining the political landscape. Reach him at kwilson@tampabay.com.
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