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Bill Bender
The Week 17 NFL schedule will scatter a full slate over five days from Wednesday to Sunday — a holiday week with postseason implications.
This should be a fantastic football week from Kansas City at Pittsburgh on Wednesday to the Monday Night Football matchup between Detroit and San Francisco.
The most interesting game? The ‘Sunday Night Football’ matchup between Washington and Atlanta. Jayden Daniels and Michael Penix Jr. finished 1-2 in the Heisman Trophy voting last year, and now, they have their teams in the thick of the NFC playoff race.
Washington can clinch a playoff spot with a victory. Daniels continues to enjoy a brilliant season, all but locking up Offensive Rookie of the Year with a five-TD performance in an upset against Philadelphia last week.
Penix Jr. replaced veteran Kirk Cousins in Week 16, and now the Falcons could clinch the NFC South with a win and a Tampa Bay loss. Atlanta swept the Buccaneers in the regular season, and Penix could be making his first playoff start in a few weeks. That is a huge late-season storyline.
The Commanders and Falcons are teams that could make waves in the NFC playoffs, but they have to get there first.
Each week, we will pick NFL matchups straight up and against the spread. A look at our track record this season:
Here are our picks for Week 17:
SN’s NFL HQ: Live NFL scores | Updated NFL standings | Full NFL schedule
Wednesday, 1 p.m., Netflix
Will George Pickens (hamstring) play? That’s the question with the quick turnaround from Saturday’s game. Patrick Mahomes has 14 TDs and one interception in three career starts against Pittsburgh, including the postseason. The Chiefs are 4-0 S/U and 4-0 ATS when favored by three points or less.
Pick: Chiefs 22, Steelers 17
MORE NFL WEEK 17:
Wednesday, 4:30 p.m., Netflix
This could be a playoff preview based on seeding, but the Ravens have an opportunity to take the lead in the AFC North. Houston is 4-2 S/U at home, but C.J. Stroud will have to figure out the passing game without Tank Dell, who suffered a gruesome knee injury in Week 16. Lamar Jackson has a 75% completion percentage with eight TDs and one interception in two games since the bye week.
Pick: Ravens 27, Texans 24
MORE NFL CHRISTMAS NEWS:
Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Prime Video
The Bears have averaged just 14 points per game since firing Matt Eberlus, and Seattle still is in the playoff mix in the NFC West. Seattle has less than 100 rushing yards in four of its past five games. Kenneth Walker III had eight carries for 31 yards in Week 16. He will be more successful on the road here as long as his ankle injury doesn’t limit him.
Pick: Seahawks 23, Bears 14
MORE: Seahawks playoff outlook after loss vs. Vikings
Saturday, 1 p.m., NFL Network
The Chargers’ defense needs to get back on track, and this is an opportunity to do that. The Patriots have allowed 167.5 rushing yards per game the past two weeks, so Jim Harbaugh should get that working again, too. Los Angeles needs this one. The Chargers are 4-3 S/U on the road, but Justin Herbert has seven TDS and one interception in those games.
Pick: Chargers 23, Patriots 14
MORE: Chargers playoff outlook after win vs. Broncos
Saturday, 4:30 p.m., NFL Network
The Bengals would be a dangerous team if they could slip into the postseason given the connection between Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. Burrow has at least three TD passes in seven straight games, but the Bengals are 4-3 in that stretch. Denver averaged eight points in losses to Pittsburgh and Baltimore and has lost two straight.
Pick: Bengals 29, Broncos 23
MORE BRONCOS: Broncos playoff outlook after loss vs. Chargers
MORE BENGALS: Joe Burrow 'looked like Superman' in record-setting performance | Bengals playoff outlook
Saturday, 8 p.m., NFL Network
The Cardinals were eliminated from the playoff picture and forced to play the spoiler role against the Rams, who have won four straight games and allowed just 7.5 points over the past two weeks. The Cardinals beat the Rams 41-10 in the first meeting. Los Angeles gets payback here.
Pick: Rams 30, Cardinals 13
MORE RAMS: Rams playoff outlook after win vs. Jets
MORE CARDINALS: James Conner injury update
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Bills will know whether they still have a shot at home-field advantage before this matchup, which needs to be cleaner after a close call against the Patriots in Week 16. Buffalo is 2-1 ATS when favored by 10 points or more.
Pick: Bills 34, Jets 17
MORE: Josh Allen injury update
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Vikings were up 28-0 on the Packers in the first meeting before a furious second-half rally by Green Bay made it a 31-29 thriller. That was Jordan Love’s first game back from a knee injury. The Packers managed just 86 rushing yards in that loss, and the Vikings rank second in the league against the run (87.1 ypg.). Minnesota gets its first sweep of Green Bay since 2017.
Pick: Vikings 26, Packers 23
MORE: How Eagles loss impacts race for NFC's No. 1 seed
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Will Derek Carr (hand) play against his former team here? The Saints are working off a short week and are 3-5 S/U at home this season. The Raiders have shown some late-season fight, and they are more functional on offense when Aidan O’Connell is at quarterback. That high-percentage passing attack works on a road upset.
Pick: Raiders 20, Saints 18
MORE: Antonio Pierces brushes off question about NFL Draft positioning
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Giants have lost 10 straight games, and they are 1-9 ATS in those matchups. It’s been a rough season for Brian Daboll. Giants quarterbacks have combined for 10 TDs and 12 interceptions. The Colts have allowed 30 or more points the past two weeks, but the combination of Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor helped Indianapolis roll up 335 rushing yards last week.
Pick: Colts 30, Giants 16
MORE: Jonathan Taylor atones for last week's mistake with big game, ironic celebration | Colts playoff outlook
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Buccaneers are tied for the NFC South lead and have no margin for error at home against the Panthers, who broke a four-game losing streak under former Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales last week. Tampa Bay needed overtime to beat the Panthers 26-23 in Week 13. It’s a bounce-back game for Baker Mayfield, but it could stay tight.
Pick: Buccaneers 30, Panthers 23
MORE: Buccaneers playoff outlook after loss vs. Cowboys
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Jacksonville beat Tennessee 10-6 in Week 14, and the Titans have allowed a total of 75 points over the past two weeks. Tennessee has created seven turnovers in its past three games, and the Jaguars have a minus-7 turnover margin in their past four games. Tennessee steals the rematch in another ugly AFC South matchup.
Pick: Titans 17, Jaguars 14
NFL DRAFT NEWS:
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., Fox
The forecast calls for rainy weather, but the temperatures should be warm. That should be good news for Tua Tagovailoa, who has the Dolphins on the playoff bubble. Cleveland has averaged just nine points per game over the past three weeks. Miami is 2-5 S/U on the road this season. Miami wins, but the Browns keep it tight.
Pick: Dolphins 27, Browns 17
MORE: Tyreek Hill explains ugly drops vs. 49ers | Dolphins playoff outlook
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
Who will be the Eagles quarterback? Jalen Hurts (concussion) and Kenny Pickett (ribs) both suffered injuries in Week 16. The Cowboys are out of playoff contention, but they played the spoiler role well in Week 16. Dallas is 4-1 S/U in his past five starts, and he has nine TDs and one interception in those games. We might re-evaluate this pick later in the week based on Philadelphia’s quarterback situation, but for now, we’ll assume Hurts plays.
Pick: Eagles 30, Cowboys 24
MORE EAGLES: Jalen Hurts injury update | Saquon Barkley rushing record tracker
MORE COWBOYS: Cowboys eliminated from playoff contention despite win vs. Bucs
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC/Peacock
Penix did not take a sack in his first start, but that was against the Giants. The Commanders rank fourth in the NFL in pass defense (185.5 ypg.), and they are at home. Atlanta will need a strong showing from Bijan Robinson, who’s averaged 103.2 rushing yards in his past four games. Washington gets the win, but the Falcons make it interesting.
Pick: Commanders 24, Falcons 23
MORE COMMANDERS: Jayden Daniels ends OROY race, starts Commanders' Super Bowl hype
MORE FALCONS: Falcons playoff outlook after win vs. Giants
Monday, 8:15 p.m., Monday, ESPN
The 49ers have been eliminated from playoff contention, so they will be relegated to spoiler mode in this NFC championship rematch. These are two top-10 statistical offenses, and the Lions have injuries on defense, so a shootout could be in the works. Jahmyr Gibbs had 154 total yards in his first game as the lead back for Detroit. He could pop off against a run defense that allows 121 yards per game.
Pick: Lions 31, 49ers 24
MORE: Jared Goff shakes off cold-weather criticisms | Lions fake fumble on wild TD
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Bill Bender graduated from Ohio University in 2002 and started at The Sporting News as a fantasy football writer in 2007. He has covered the College Football Playoff, NBA Finals and World Series for SN. Bender enjoys story-telling, awesomely-bad 80s movies and coaching youth sports.
