The Democratic Party has a leadership crisis in 2025.
Don’t take my word for it, we polled the question last week. When asked to name the leader of the Democratic Party, nearly half of all registered voters nationally in our Suffolk University/USA TODAY couldn’t name a person or volunteered “Nobody.”
For the record, here is the list of open-ended responses to the question, listing only responses totaling 1% or more in descending order from the Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll of registered voters taken between Jan. 7 and Jan. 11:
Let’s start with the 19% of voters who responded “nobody.” As for the “nobody” retort, as you might expect, more Republicans (22%) gave this response, but 26% of independents did too.
Independents are key to winning midterm and presidential elections as we just witnessed. This is fertile ground for a populist Democrat to fill this blank space among this important segment of the electorate.
One data point to consider: four years ago, Donald Trump’s net favorability among independents was a whopping minus-22 (35% favorable to 57% unfavorable). Today, it is a negligible minus-5 (42% favorable to 47% unfavorable). This created a winning opportunity for the GOP in all seven swing states.
So, which Democrat is going to fill that huge void?
Of the 12 people voters named, all are current or former officeholders except mega-Democratic donor George Soros (who was named by many more Republicans than Democrats in a flare of MAGA sarcasm).
But only four of the 12 are both under 60 years of age and will be serving as an elected official in 2025 and beyond: Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, California Governor Gavin Newsom, New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman.
Both poll frontrunner Vice President Harris (age 60) and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (age 42) are outgoing members of the Biden Administration and will most likely not be as visible over the next election cycle or two unless they win a statewide election in their home state.
Of the four young Democrats who will have platforms, Newsom is currently struggling with California wildfire issues and doing his best at damage control on all fronts.
His political moment may have been missed by not challenging President Biden in the 2024 Democratic Primary, but he opted to stay loyal to his friend the president, instead vouching for Biden’s mental acuity and actively supporting him, thus playing the long political game. That game just got a bit longer.
Ocasio-Cortez and Fetterman are focused on understanding the new electorate better.
Realizing that some voters in her congressional district chose to both reelect her and vote for Trump, she immediately took to social media and invited those voters to reach out to her and share their thoughts in a genuine appeal to understand the Ocasio-Cortez/Trump voter better.
In addition, Ocasio-Cortez’s Hispanic heritage fills another void. In the poll, the 30% “don’t know” increased to 42% among Hispanic voters, creating an opportunity for AOC, given that there has never been a Hispanic nominee for president or vice president. Speaking the language is one advantage, but living the culture could shift demographics dramatically going forward.
Fetterman in the closing weeks of the campaign acknowledged Trump’s coalition in Pennsylvania and as of this writing will meet with Trump at Mar-a-Lago. This is another example of recognizing the sentiment of voters in 2024 and is a very different look than the Elizabeth Warren-type approach which wouldn’t care about the Warren-Trump voters in Massachusetts and would never visit Mar-a-Lago.
Though Trump had the highest favorability in the poll (47%), much of his agenda is rejected by voters: over 53% think Congress should cut the budget deficit even if that means not extending the Trump tax cuts, 61% oppose the privatization of the U.S. Postal Service, and 66% say the political divisions are deeper today than they were in the past.
Do Democrats want a combative party leader or someone more tactical and engaged with current voter trends?
That leaves Jeffries, who, yes was hand-picked by Pelosi, but who has also emerged as the best of the active Democratic lot at 9%, just a hair behind Harris who had 24/7 exposure for three straight months, while Jeffries had very little.
Widely perceived in DC as energetic, articulate, compassionate, and tough when needed, Jeffries’ appeal seemed to be limited to the DC bubble and his own congressional district.
But by polling so close to Harris and even above former President Obama nationally, Jeffries has emerged as the frontrunner “on the political field of play” to fill a huge void in Democratic Party leadership.
The poll tells us that Jeffries outpolls everyone, including Harris, among Democrats 16% to 15%, all voters over 50 (12% to 8%), and black voters (17% to 13%). He is also tops among self-identified liberal voters where he leads Harris 18% to 12%.
Jeffries has begun to emerge as a strong voice in the Democratic Party across the country even though he’s not calling the shots as Speaker in DC ‒ yet.
And if he’s not interested in leading the Democratic Party outside of the House of Representatives, perhaps Ocasio-Cortez and Fetterman are waiting in the wings.
David Paleologos directs the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston.
This story was updated to correct an error.
