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Just days before Washington officially transitions back to the Trump era, the folks trying to plot out a successful first six months of his second term have a big new problem they will have to deal with and embrace — rebuilding America’s second-largest city.
One of the hallmarks of every presidency I’ve covered is how the best-laid plans of a new (or newly re-elected) president have all run aground fairly quickly amid unforeseen crises. Whether it’s because of an economic collapse, a pandemic, a hurricane that nearly erases a major city, a terrorist attack in the nation’s largest city, an oil leak at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico or, now, out-of-control fires encroaching on an enormous urban population, presidencies rarely go to plan.
As some Republicans in Congress talk about imposing conditions on relief money to California, Donald Trump is using his pre-inauguration bully pulpit to repeatedly blame the destruction on California Democrats. The ultimate goal, if there is one, may be to try to desensitize his base to any political consequences for not fully helping out Southern California. But it’s not a tactic that will be successful once he’s president. Not fully helping will easily boomerang on him. It isn’t just Democrats who have had their houses burned down, but plenty of Republicans, as well.
Despite the noise Trump is manufacturing regarding competency issues among Los Angeles-area and California leaders, he isn’t going to be judged on how many likes his social media posts get. He’ll be judged on whether his administration has the competence to meet this moment, as well. The goal of all federal government disaster aid is to create resiliency, so that the cost of recovery from the next inevitable natural disaster is more manageable.
New York City’s ground zero wasn’t rebuilt by just the city and state of New York. New Orleans wasn’t rebuilt only with the help of city and state resources. And the hole spewing oil in the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico wasn’t plugged by the private sector alone.
If Republicans play politics with recovery aid for Southern California, they risk the same politics’ getting thrown back at them when they want more recovery aide for, say, Florida’s Gulf Coast or western North Carolina — two more conservative-leaning areas hit hard by fall hurricanes. Just look at the (correct) political fallout and grief the Federal Emergency Management Agency got last fall when an apparent rogue FEMA representative cautioned first responders against going to visibly pro-Trump houses. It was a terrible instinct driven by what appears to be political bias, and the employee was fired.
Two wrongs never make a right, and yet too many of today’s political extremists want just that: treat the other side the way they believe they’ve been treated. It’s an “un-golden” rule of sorts, and it’s a recipe for civil unrest.
Ultimately, I’m confident Republicans in places that have been hit by their own recent disasters won’t all decide to punish California, since they know they’ll be judged locally by whether they could effectively harness federal government resources to help rebuild stricken areas in their states, be it Florida coastline or washed-out mountain roads in North Carolina.
There’s another reason I expect the rebuilding of the Los Angeles region to become a necessary national priority: the 2028 Olympics. L.A. is the host city for the 2028 summer games, and the world just watched Paris use the Olympics to beat back the perception that older European capitals had seen their best days already. The Olympics gave Paris and France a much-needed morale boost. And the opportunity to showcase a rebuilt and more climate-resilient Los Angeles is right there for civic leaders — as long as they can unite and focus on the big picture.
The smart civic leaders in California will realize that Trump, who will be president when the Games begin in 2028, will be open to helping if his ego is massaged just the right way. There are enough transactional-style leaders in Hollywood’s and California’s tech communities to make this happen, though it may take different civic leaders fronting the effort from those we see playing that role right now. But the opportunity to basically co-opt Trump via flattery and potential Olympic glory (the president who helped save the Olympics for L.A.!) is staring everyone in the face.
And that brings me to the political pitfalls staring the current crop of leaders in the eye right now.
It’s possible some may not politically recover from the perceived failures of government. I use the word “perceived” because the reality may very well be that these fires would have (and most likely did) overwhelm even the most prepared city for urban wildfires.
After Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans, some politicians never recovered in the public’s eye, including the city’s mayor, the governor of Louisiana and the president. It was less about what they did before the storm hit and more about how unprepared they seemed to be in the aftermath.
That could end up being the story with this crisis in the Los Angeles region. The city’s mayor, Karen Bass, doesn’t seem to have the public-facing rhetorical and organizational skills to meet this moment for desperate and scared Angelenos. It’s possible she is a terrific collaborator, part of a skill set that has helped her succeed as a leader in the California Assembly and the U.S. House. But those are collaborative, legislative jobs. This is her first elected executive job, and the skills she has acquired as a collaborative legislator don’t necessarily translate to a crisis like this one.
Still, I’d be careful about writing her career off just yet. I think everyone involved, from Bass to California Gov. Gavin Newsom to outgoing Vice President (and California native) Kamala Harris to the incoming president, will all be judged on the speed and pace of the recovery. What did they do to expedite the rebuild? What did they do to clear obstacles to get relief to the people who need it as soon as possible? If anyone is caught caring more about scoring political points, be prepared for the backlash.
In these early days, I do think both Bass and Newsom have come across a tad defensive. Now, I understand why: Some of the internet attacks are absurd, and the rumors about what could have been done (like moving all this water from the north to help the south, as Trump has been posting on social media) are more far-fetched than average folks realize. But in politics, if you are explaining, you are losing. All that elected official on the ground ought to say when asked they’re about whether they should have done this or that beforehand is: I’m not focused on the criticisms; I’m focused on the crisis.
They could take a page from the late Attorney General Janet Reno, who directed GOP critics of the infamous raid on the Branch Davidian cult in Waco, Texas, to blame her directly and no one else. She said that she made the decision and that the responsibility fell on her. What was remarkable about that moment is that instead of hurting her, the decision to accept responsibility made her more popular and more trusted.
Ultimately, rebuilding the destroyed parts of Southern California is going to redefine the politics of California for the next four years, with the Summer Olympics in 2028 being the final exam for some of these elected officials. If Los Angeles can rebound and pull off a Paris-like Olympics in 2028 with a more resilient city as the backdrop, the voters will reward those elected officials who kept their eyes on the ball. But make no mistake, this will upend the politics of California in the short term.
The candidates for governor in 2026 will all need to have plans to deal with the threat of natural disasters, to deal with the threat of insurers’ making picturesque real estate unaffordable and to deal with the rebuilding. Don’t be surprised if voters look for a different type of leader to make this happen; Perhaps former business executives or successful developers decide to run, or maybe someone affected by the fires who is his or her own type of influencer or celebrity gains traction. The point is that if you have had a conventional political career and you think it’s “your turn” when it comes to serving as governor or another elected official, watch out.
Should Newsom serve out his term (as expected), it will mean the Democrats have held the California governor’s office for 16 straight years, or four straight elections. It has been almost a century since either party had a run like that in the state (Republicans from 1918 to 1934). The point is that even before this natural disaster, some conditions for change already existed in the state, simply because of one-party-control fatigue. Now, with a new galvanizing issue, the possibility of the voters’ being open to something new and different is quite high. Whoever ends up winning the next race for governor is likely to have more success if they can prove they are coming from a different mindset or a different career path.
In other words, if I were an outgoing vice president and former senator from California, I might skip running for any office in 2026 (especially governor) and instead focus on using my influence and skill set to lead a public-private commission focused on rebuilding in the region and making the state more resilient to fires. It’s quite possible that people associated with the “old” or “conventional” way of doing political business in California will have a hard time making the case they are the change agents the state needs in this crucial period of its history.
Bottom line: There’s only one issue that’s likely to matter in California for the foreseeable future, and that’s rebuilding the Los Angeles region and keeping a sustainable insurance industry to make owning a home in America’s largest state feasible for the average middle-class Californian. Everything else is going to matter a lot less until then.
Good luck, L.A. I’m confident that just like New Orleans after Katrina, just like Wall Street after 9/11, just like San Francisco (a few times after earthquakes) and just like Chicago (after its own infamous fire), the city will rebuild and do so for the better. That new day can’t come soon enough. But if any city knows how to create a Hollywood ending, it’s L.A.
Chuck Todd is NBC News’ chief political analyst and the former moderator of “Meet The Press.”
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