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Bill Bender
The Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks are the lone unbeaten teams left in the NFC after three weeks, standing out two of the biggest September surprises.
Can they keep it going in Week 4 against NFC Super Bowl contenders?
Minnesota plays rival Green Bay in NFC North action at 1 p.m. ET. Sam Darnold has guided the Vikings to home victories against San Francisco and Houston – but those games were at home. This is at Lambeau Field, where Minnesota has enjoyed recent success with a 3-2-1 record in the past six trips. With Jordan Love (knee) possibly returning, the stage is set for a divisional classic.
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The Seahawks will have to go through Detroit and Ford Field to maintain their unbeaten record. First-year Mike Macdonald is off to a great start, and Geno Smith has maintained a 74.8-percent completion percentage. Seattle beat Detroit 37-31 in overtime last season, so this should be a fun finish to Week 4, which also includes Bills-Ravens and Chiefs-Chargers in the AFC matchups.
Quick question: Will the Steelers be the only unbeaten team heading into Week 5?
Each week, we will pick NFL matchups straight up and against the spread. A look at our track record this season:
Here are our picks for Week 4.
Thursday, 8:15 p.m., NBC/Peacock
Dallas is on a two-game losing streak despite the fact Dak Prescott leads the league with 851 passing yards — a stat that is juxtaposed against an 85.8 QB rating. The Giants are coming off an impressive win where rookie Malik Nabers had a two-TD breakout game. Prescott has won 12 consecutive starts against the Giants. If Dallas loses this one, then Mike McCarthy's seat will heat up. Get this line now before it ticks up more.
Pick: Cowboys 27, Giants 17
MORE: Will Seahawks, Vikings, & Steelers make playoffs? | Will Cowboys, 49ers, & Browns miss postseason?
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
This should be a heated NFC South showdown. New Orleans has protected Derek Carr well to this point, and the Eagles loss came down to giving up too many rushing yards. Bijan Robinson should get back on track in this game for Atlanta, and that will open the passing game for veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins. The Saints have won five of the past six meetings in Atlanta, so it’s a tough pick. Atlanta has proven it can play with Super Bowl contenders, including Philadelphia and Kansas City. That translates in this game.
Pick: Falcons 24, Saints 21
WEEK 4 FANTASY RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Rams have been hit hard by injuries, but Matthew Stafford adjusted in Week 4 with a heavy dose of Kyren Williams and a few deep shots to Tutu Atwell. Los Angeles has just four sacks in three games, but they will turn that pressure up against Caleb Williams, who has taken 13 sacks in three games. Stafford has won his past two starts at Soldier Field, too. If the Bears can get the running game going, then they will have a chance. It’s a toss-up, and we will go with the veteran quarterback.
Pick: Rams 20, Bears 19
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Vikings have a chance to take command of the NFC North race. Darnold and Justin Jefferson, who averages 19.5 yards per catch with three TDs, have been effective. The matchup between Jefferson and Jaire Alexander will be fun as usual. Aaron Jones, who averages 5.2 yards per attempt, will be the key against his former team. Love should return for this game, and the Packers need to generate a running game against a Vikings’ defense that allows 71.3 yards per game. These teams have split their series each of the past four years. Whose turn is it?
Pick: Packers 28, Vikings 26
MORE: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings | Week 4 NFL picks against the spread
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Steelers are one of the last unbeaten teams in the AFC, and they are doing it with the classic formula of a defense that allows 229.7 yards and 8.7 yards per game and conservative yet effective play from Justin Fields. The Steelers also are perfect against the spread, a product of lines that have been four points or less so far. Anthony Richardson will make a few plays, but the Colts are 31st against the run (179.0 ypg.). Fields will make a few plays with his legs, too.
Pick: Steelers 21, Colts 17
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
There is going to be a lot written about Aaron Rodgers, Sean Payton, and Nathaniel Hackett this week. Denver has allowed just 15.3 points per game through three weeks, and they have an excellent pass rush led by Jonathan Cooper. Aaron Rodgers has improved with each week, and he has taken just five sacks in three games. Bo Nix avoided turnovers in Week 3. Will he do that in Week 4 against a Jets’ defense that had seven sacks in Week 3?
Pick: Jets 24, Broncos 17
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
This is a rematch of last year’s NFC wild-card matchup, which Tampa Bay won 32-9 behind Baker Mayfield’s 337-yard, three-TD performance. So, why are the Eagles favored? Saquon Barkley is averaging 5.6 yards per carry, and that has given the Eagles balance around Jalen Hurts. Linebacker Zach Baun, who ranks second in the NFL with 37 tackles, had anchored an improved defense that has allowed 204.3 yards per game. Tampa Bay’s Week 3 flop also influences this pick a bit.
Pick: Eagles 31, Buccaneers 28
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Andy Dalton will face his former team again. Dalton has faced Cincinnati with three different teams (Dallas, Chicago, New Orleans) since leaving, and he is 2-1 with a 100.8 passer rating in those games. The Bengals, however, should stay on track here with a pass rush led by Trey Hendrickson and a healthy connection between Joe Burrow and receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The Bengals are 6-4 ATS as a road favorite since 2022.
Pick: Bengals 27, Panthers 13
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Jaguars are looking to spice up the AFC South race against the Texans, who got their Week 3 reality check. Houston could not run the ball without Joe Mixon (ankle), and C.J. Stroud struggled as a result. The Texans split with the Jaguars last season, but Stroud averaged 292 passing yards with four TDs and no interceptions in those games. The Jaguars will keep it competitive off a short week, but Houston gets right at home.
Pick: Texans 24, Jaguars 20
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., Fox
A couple of star rookies will shine in this game. Marvin Harrison Jr. averages 19.8 yards per catch with three TDs, and Kyler Murray should be able to connect for at least one more score here. Washington is coming off a short week, but the results with Jayden Daniels have been encouraging so far. This is a tricky line because the Cardinals are a favorite for the first time under second-year Jonathan Gannon.
Pick: Cardinals 27, Commanders 25
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., Fox
It’s a huge spread, and it’s key not to over-value last week’s performance by either team. The 49ers let a late lead slip, and they need stars Deebo Samuel and George Kittle to get healthy. There have been two NFL games with spreads of nine points or more this season, and the underdog has won straight-up both times. New England pulled that off in Week 1. This time, the 49ers pull away in the second half behind Brock Purdy, who averages 280.7 passing yards per game with a revolving-door supporting cast.
Pick: 49ers 31, Patriots 17
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
Who gets well here? Cleveland has a non-threatening offense, and Deshaun Watson has taken a league-high 16 sacks. The Raiders are coming off a messy loss against Carolina and have the worst rushing offense in the league (51 ypg.). Which defensive star makes the game-changing play — Myles Garrett or Maxx Crosby? The Raiders have won the past four meetings in this series.
Pick: Raiders 25, Browns 19
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
What does Jim Harbaugh add to the Chiefs-Chargers’ rivalry? Los Angeles will try to slow down the Kansas City offense with the running game, which was ineffective in Week 3 against the Steelers. Justin Herbert (ankle) will hopefully be healthier here, and the Chiefs have been scraping by with one-score victories each week. The Chiefs have a -2 turnover ratio. The Chargers are at -3. Los Angeles could pull off an upset here, but we will settle for a close game. Kansas City has won four games at SoFi Stadium by a combined total of 11 points. If the line ticks up, jump on the Chargers.
Pick: Chiefs 24, Chargers 19
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC Peacock
The Bills are coming off a short week, and the Ravens avoided a 0-3 start with a victory at Dallas. Both are forever chasing Kansas City in the AFC race. How will Buffalo handle the tandem of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry? Together, they average 5.9 yards per rushing attempt. Buffalo has found a rhythm with Josh Allen and James Cook, and the Bills have avoided turnovers. Buffalo won 23-20 at Baltimore in 2022. Will Justin Tucker, who is five-of-eight on field-goal attempts, knock down the game-winning field goal as time expires?
Pick: Ravens 31, Bills 28
Monday, 7:30 p.m.. ESPN
The Titans are in disaster-control mode. Tennessee has a -7 turnover ratio, and they have averaged just 16 points per game as a result. Skyler Thompson averaged 5.6 yards per attempt in his first start for Miami in Week 3, and, if his rib injury is healed, he will be asked to do more because the Titans have a tough run defense. It’s a true pick ’em, but we’ll favor the home team. Miami might be limited, but they are taking care of the football.
Pick: Dolphins 23, Titans 20
Monday, 8:15 p.m., ABC
The Seahawks’ defense, which has allowed 14.3 points per game, has been the key to a hot start. The Lions have been dealing with key injuries, including tight end Sam LaPorta (ankle). Detroit has played three one-score games to this point, and this will be another one that tests Dan Campbell’s mantra of “grit.” Detroit is 9-3 S/U and 7-5 ATS as a home favorite at Ford Field since 2023, and the prime-time spotlight will help.
Pick: Lions 28, Seahawks 21
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Bill Bender graduated from Ohio University in 2002 and started at The Sporting News as a fantasy football writer in 2007. He has covered the College Football Playoff, NBA Finals and World Series for SN. Bender enjoys story-telling, awesomely-bad 80s movies and coaching youth sports.
