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2024 has seen Italy slide further right, but Meloni remains unscathed, for now.
News Based on facts, either observed and verified directly by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
talian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni arrives to welcome visiting Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban (not pictured) at the Chigi Palace in Rome, Italy, 04 December 2024. EPA-EFE/ALESSANDRO DI MEO
Amid an unusually calm political landscape by Italian standards, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is entering 2025 with high ambitions, including increasing her profile by liaising between the EU and US President Donald Trump and escalating a battle against Europe’s Green Deal.
In just two years as Italy’s Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni has undergone a dramatic transformation in public perception. From a threat to democracy, she is now considered a pivotal player in EU politics and, for some, even a potential mediator with Trump.
This shift comes despite Meloni’s controversial decisions. In 2024, her government passed a law criminalising surrogacy as a “universal crime”, allowed anti-abortion activists to enter abortion clinics, and introduced labour and healthcare measures that triggered widespread strikes across Italy. Journalists organisations and the EU Commission have also raised concerns over the deterioration of press freedom in the country.
Even so, Meloni has defied Italy’s notoriously short political cycles, remaining in office for two years – an achievement in a country known for government instability.
Her party, Brothers of Italy, remains the most popular in the country, polling above 29%—seven points ahead of the Democratic Party (PD), its closest competitor.
A secure political environment
Italy’s political shift toward conservatism reflects a broader global trend. Meloni herself has touted her administration as “the most stable government in Europe,” contrasting it with the political turmoil gripping France and Germany, where right-wing movements are gaining ground.
In this context, she managed to secure a position for her loyal minister, Raffaele Fitto, as Executive Vice President of the European Commission. This was despite his ECR group not being part of the pro-European majority and having voted against Ursula von der Leyen’s reappointment.
Analysts, including Lorenzo Castellani, a political scientist at LUISS Guido Carli University, suggest that Meloni’s position is secure.
“The political landscape in Italy is unusually dull,” Castellani told EURACTIV.
The opposition—led by the PD and the Five Star Movement (M5S)—is mired in endless negotiations over potential coalitions, while the centrist parties, Azione and Italia Viva, failed to meet the electoral threshold in June.
“The centre is destroyed,” Castellani added.
“It’s unclear whether they will align with the broader opposition or remain on the sidelines. This division benefits a government that is already strong, with a clear majority in Parliament. A political crisis in 2025 seems highly unlikely.”
Meloni’s government term extends until 2027, but six regional elections are slated for next year.
With centre-right parties already governing 12 of Italy’s 20 regions, the upcoming elections will test the enduring strength of her coalition.
Trump’s European ally?
Several analysts, international media, and figures from her party claim that Meloni could serve as a European mediator for Trump.
The two leaders have exchanged warm words, with Trump praising Meloni as “great” and “a real live wire.” Before becoming Prime Minister, Meloni frequently attended Republican events in the US, citing Trump as an inspiration for Italian politics.
She even invited his former strategist, Steve Bannon, to speak at a Brothers of Italy conference in 2018.
In an address to the Italian parliament on 17 December, ahead of the European Council meeting, Meloni stressed the importance of maintaining a “pragmatic and open approach” toward the Trump administration.
She suggested building on areas of EU-US cooperation while working to prevent trade disputes that would “harm both sides”.
Meloni has also supported Kyiv in its defence against Russian forces, providing aid and weapons.
2025 will be crucial as Rome prepares to host the Ukraine Recovery Conference on 10-11 July.
However, Meloni’s desire to be the bridge to Trump may clash with growing Polish ambitions for such a role.
Poland will take over the rotating EU Council Presidency in January and has already taken leading initiatives regarding Ukraine ahead of Trump’s return to the White House.
In addition, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has increased his influence within the EU’s centre-right European People’s Party, the EU’s largest political family, and is seeking to break the traditional decision-making focus on the Franco-German axis.
For her part, EU Parliament chief Roberta Metsola has said no leader alone, “whoever it is,” can be as effective an interlocutor as the EU, while Mario Draghi recently noted that Europe should wait for the results of the German federal elections in February.
The year of reforms
Speaking at the party’s annual conference on 15 December, Meloni declared 2025 “the year of reforms.”
Several key reforms are on the agenda, the most contentious of which is the highly debated differentiated autonomy reform. This has sparked an uproar among opposition parties and drawn criticism from the European Commission, with the possibility of a referendum following a record-breaking signature collection campaign.
“The real question for 2025,” Castellani notes, “is not whether these reforms will pass but at what pace. So far, the timeline for constitutional changes—especially the judiciary and the plans to introduce the direct election of the premier reforms—has been deliberately slow.”
Another battleground for Meloni is the Italy-Albania model for outsourcing migrant processing, in which migrants are sent to centres outside the EU while their asylum applications are being processed.
The Italian government is awaiting a ruling from the European Court of Justice on whether these currently inactive centres, which cost Italy €800,000, will be allowed to reopen.
Italian courts have annulled the detention of migrants in these centres pending the EU court’s decision, prompting strong criticism from the government.
This has raised concerns about potential political interference and threats to judicial independence, which ECRI, the Council of Europe’s racism watchdog, and other stakeholders have echoed.
Meloni is eager for this initiative to succeed, aiming to position it as a model that has already attracted the interest of the European Union, some member states, and the United Kingdom.
Battling the Green Deal
One of Meloni’s signature positions on European dossiers was her criticism of the Green Deal.
She has consistently stated that she has “fought” and will continue to oppose the deal’s “ideological madness,” which she believes could lead to deindustrialisation.
The Italian Prime minister also repeatedly warned that electric vehicles are the “only solution” and that it is “suicide” and emphasised that Italy will seek a suspension of fines on car manufacturers in 2025 due to their already leading to the closure of many factories.
Her coalition partner, far-right Matteo Salvini, is also on the same page, saying that any EU measure against the car industry would only help China.
[Edited by Charles Szumski / Sarantis Michalopoulos / Alice Taylor- Braçe]
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