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BUFFALO, N.Y. — There is good news and bad news for New York with regards to new population estimates.
The U.S. Census Bureau estimates the state gained about 130,000 people between 2023 and 2024.
"Which is significant because the previous estimates in the last two years show New York losing almost 300,000 people a year," New York Law Professor Jeff Wice said.
But the redistricting expert said the numbers still project the state will lose two congressional seats during the next reapportionment in 2030. He said the incoming Trump administration could further impact New York’s future influence if it takes actions like cutting Census Bureau programming or adding a citizenship question to the survey.
"This could have a very serious impact on the ability to get a full count in New York in 2030 when the real numbers come out," Wice said.
New York Republican Party Chair Ed Cox said projections red states like Texas and Florida will add seats is good for the party nationally but he doesn’t want to see it at the expense of his home state.
"New York is just in a decline because of one-party rule in Albany," Cox said.
The state has gone from 45 congressional seats to 26 since World War II but Cox blames the recent slide on the policies of Democratic governors like Kathy Hochul and Andrew Cuomo. He does believe based on positive trends in the most recent presidential and gubernatorial races, a Republican candidate could win a governor’s race in 2026 and potentially stop the loss of representatives.
"The only way you change that is by changing the tax regimes and the regulatory regimes here in New York and to do that you need to have a strong governor," Cox said.
Wice said it may be difficult to do things like increase New York’s birth rate or substantially change trends of people moving out of state by the next census. However, he said leaders can focus on ensuring a full and accurate count.
"One thing we can do is to educate New Yorkers and familiarize them with the census process, not in 2030 or in 2029 but to begin now to make census education part of every school curriculum of every civic outreach program," he said.
New York lost one congressional seat after the last census but could have maintained the status quo if it had counted 89 more people.
