The 19th Explains: What happens if the government shuts down until the new year? – The 19th*

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Politics
Congress has until midnight Friday to pass a short-term spending measure to keep the federal government running.
Amanda Becker
Washington Correspondent
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President-elect Donald Trump announced Thursday evening that Republicans had reached an agreement to fund the government and raise the debt ceiling as Congress raced to avert a government shutdown slated to begin Saturday. 
“SUCCESS in Washington!” Trump posted on Truth Social.
“A VERY important piece, VITAL to the America First Agenda, was added as well — The date of the very unnecessary Debt Ceiling will be pushed out two years, to January 30, 2027.”
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The fate of the GOP-negotiated deal was unclear. 
Congressional leaders were close to a bipartisan deal earlier this week on a measure that would have funded the government at current levels through March 14, 2025, though it also included an additional $100 billion in disaster relief and $10 billion for farmers.
Trump and key allies, including Elon Musk — who he has tapped to lead the newly conceived, quasi-governmental “Department of Government Efficiency” — all but nuked that deal when they voiced their opposition on Wednesday. Trump said he wanted to tie a measure to raise the debt limit to the spending deal and that he wanted it done under Democratic President Joe Biden’s watch rather than that of his incoming administration. 
Trump said the spending deal he reached with GOP House Speaker Mike Johnson to keep the government open would include money for “Great Farmers and others, and provide relief to those severely impacted by the devastating hurricanes.” He did not offer specific figures or duration of the spending deal. 
Congress could begin voting as early as Thursday night.
Raising the debt ceiling, which limits how much the federal government can borrow to pay its bills, has become a politically fraught process in recent years.  Fiscal conservatives have used the sometimes protracted battles to push to reduce overall government spending. 
The debt ceiling is set to expire in January. If the negotiated deal passes, it will allow Trump to avoid debt-ceiling negotiations for the first two years of his presidency and, with that, avert the potential to frustrate swift implementation of his legislative agenda. One of its key elements is the extension of Republicans’ 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which has key provisions set to expire at the end of next year.  
If the debt ceiling is not lifted, the Treasury Department can use something called “extraordinary measures,” which experts estimate would cover spending until June. If the debt ceiling is not raised and the country breaches it, the government would default on its debt, likely causing serious repercussions for the United States and other economies. 
Johnson, facing opposition from within the conservative flank of his party, has kept the government open in the past with short-term measures passed with the help of Democrats. This time, though, Democratic leaders said that Johnson could not rely on them to negotiate a new deal after reneging on the one arrived at earlier this week. Trump promised political fallout for lawmakers inclined to support the prior deal; Johnson faces a leadership reelection fight early in the new year.
Here’s what happens if Congress can’t pass a spending plan and the government shuts down.
A shutdown means that all federal agencies must stop functions that are deemed “nonessential” until money is appropriated for the next fiscal year. Mandatory spending —  money for programs including Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security — is not affected. Government functions deemed essential by individual agencies, along with the Office of Management and Budget, continue. 
Every shutdown is different and there’s a lot we won’t know until it starts and federal agencies begin to furlough workers. 
While shutdowns do not necessarily affect the benefits that Americans receive, such as SNAP, the food assistance program for low-income people that is administered by the Agriculture Department, a shutdown could impact how these benefits are distributed if it lasts beyond 30 days, according to the liberal-leaning Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), a nonprofit group that analyzes budget policy. Likewise, Social Security and Medicare benefits would continue as normal for most people, but checks to new beneficiaries could be delayed. During the 1995-1996 shutdown, more than 10,000 Medicare applicants were temporarily turned away, according to the CRFB.
Past shutdowns have impacted national parks, which continued to admit visitors in some cases but stopped many services and closed buildings. 
There have been 21 government shutdowns since 1977. Many of these were short — a single day, a weekend — and did not meaningfully impact government services. 
The longest government shutdown was during the previous Trump administration in early 2019, which lasted a full 34 days, weeks longer than past shutdowns. 
Millions of workers would be affected, but until agencies announce specific plans, it is difficult to estimate an exact number. 
About 2.2 million civilian workers are employed by the federal government, many of whom would either work without pay until a shutdown ends or be furloughed. During the 2019 shutdown, about 800,000 federal workers were furloughed. Government contractors could likewise go without pay and may not be reimbursed. Active-duty military service members and law enforcement are deemed essential and would therefore continue working, but their pay would be delayed. 
Regions with higher concentrations of federal workers would be disproportionately affected; there are about 370,000 federal workers in the Washington, D.C., area, for example. Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia pointed to the number of federal workers in her state who would be impacted last year when she introduced a bipartisan bill that would block members of Congress from being paid during government shutdowns. 
A government shutdown has cascading effects. The economy in Washington, for example, is dependent on tourism. In 2019, the Smithsonian institutions shut down after they ran out of cash reserves, and the District of Columbia government estimated that the shutdown was costing the city as much as $12 million a week, mostly from lost sales tax revenue from restaurants, hotels and retail establishments. It also impacted food banks and other support services in Washington and elsewhere as they served an influx of furloughed workers trying to make ends meet.
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