Michael Penix replaces Kirk Cousins on the fly in Atlanta, Jared Goff attempts to put the Lions’ offense on his back, Aaron Rodgers tries to extend his recent hot streak.
Other positions: Running Back | Receiver | Tight End/Kickers/Defense
Week 16 Quarterbacks
QB Notes: Josh Allen has a truly monumental 93.2 fantasy points over the past two weeks. I’m not really sure what to say other than “lol.” Another 40-plus fantasy point outing probably isn’t possible against the non-competitive Patriots — those kinds of epic days require being pushed — but Allen can still wreak so much havoc even if he only truly tries for two-plus quarters. … You killed the man — Jameis Winston — but not the idea: Baker Mayfield. Whereas Winston is synonymous with the quantitative easing of fantasy points, it’s mostly a myth. Mayfield is the one actually playing that game this season, paying little attention to turnovers but producing far, far more yards and touchdowns than Winston. Now he has a fantasy semis smash spot in a Cowboys defense coughing up more than eight yards per attempt. … Jayden Daniels had a good fantasy day against the Saints, but he should have come away with so much more. He also nearly came away with a loss vs. what might be the worst team in the league at this point. Daniels has ramped his rushing back up, and he’s going to need his legs against the Eagles’ elite pass defense.
It was one bad start for Sam Darnold. Really, it was his first bad start in over a month. Now, the Seahawks are a bad matchup, but Darnold is one of the few QBs whose floor rarely falls out while maintaining an easily-achievable ceiling. … Jared Goff is known as a home creature when it comes to fantasy football. He and the Lions have no choice but to take the show on the road with David Montgomery joining approximately every Detroit defender on the shelf. The Lions are running out of bodies for the stretch run, and Goff is going to have to pass them out of it. He had a strong Thanksgiving outing against the Bears, but they have not been the first place you would look for enemy QB fantasy points this season. They, in fact, permit the fewest. I’m just betting on necessity. … So Brock Purdy apparently can’t play in the rain. Good to know going forward. I wish I could say “the only thing in the forecast for Miami on Sunday is points,” alas, the game total is a tepid 44.5. The 49ers’ team total isn’t overly inspiring, either. Purdy remains a low-end QB1 by virtue of his weapons and the injury-depleted Niners’ need for the passing game.
Kyler Murray … there’s not much left to say. I would like to say he’s an “enigma,” but that isn’t true: He’s just not very good. Naturally, the same cannot be said for his Week 16 matchup. The Panthers maintain one of the league’s very worst defenses, while Week 15 blew up the notion they were “heading in the right direction,” or whatever. If you think Murray has you headed out of the fantasy playoffs, I can’t blame you for benching him, but he’s a QB1. … I guess the Tua Tagovailoa bubble was always bound to burst. I was hoping it wouldn’t be that disastrous, but he still reached 40 attempts. 39.5 should remain his over/under vs. a still-stout 49ers defense, but one lacking purpose for the season’s final three weeks. Where passing volume goes, fantasy production tends to follow. … You could say Bo Nix has stopped “getting away with it.” Just a little too inaccurate of late, Nix has regressed to the turnover mean and isn’t compensating with big plays. He has a decent floor, but the Chargers are a poor short-week matchup. if you’re starting Nix, it’s to hold the line. He probably won’t be the reason you advance.
Aaron Rodgers seems to be revving up for an extended encore. Although his best football of the season is coming far too late for the Jets, the same is not true for fantasy managers. Looking like a man who wants to set a few more records with Davante Adams, Rodgers is facing a volatile Rams pass defense that has surrendered several explosive outcomes this season. … Rodgers is trying to get where Matthew Stafford has already been. At least two touchdowns every week. 270 yards as a matter of course. Ceiling has proven elusive for Stafford, but Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp furnish a mighty nice floor. The Rams have the seventh highest implied team total for Week 16. … Jameis Winston is gone. Dorian Thompson-Robinson ensures the Browns’ offense will be forgotten. The decision is understandable, but it’s certainly not going to lead to more points for Cleveland. Of course, the same could be true for the Bengals if “DTR” avoids Winston’s patented pick-sixes. … Yes, Jordan Love has a good matchup. No, Jordan Love never passes. In fact, it has been six weeks since he reached 30 attempts. That’s the hardest way to make a fantasy living. It’s all too easy to envision the Packers rushing 35-40 times against the hapless Saints.
It feels wrong, but I am ranking Anthony Richardson ahead of Bo Nix for fantasy semis week. Richardson has a much better matchup in the Titans, and his legs feel like the safest bet between these two young QBs right now. It goes without saying Richardson has no floor. Unlike Nix, however, his ceiling could flip a matchup. … Drake Maye always has upside. The Bills, meanwhile, have been getting scorched for massive fantasy performances. It’s just hard to shake the feeling that, where Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff rocked pass-happy game script against Buffalo, rookie Maye and his limited supporting cast could too easily succumb to sacks and turnovers. … Listen, I’m not saying you should start Caleb Williams after what we just witnessed on Monday night, but … you should maybe start Caleb Williams. The Lions’ defense has somehow gotten even more injured since Williams’ strong Thanksgiving performance, and there’s just no universe where he isn’t attempting at least 35 passes. … The Broncos have been hemorrhaging quarterback fantasy points of late, but Justin Herbert hasn’t been providing them. The Chargers have too many injury issues, while the complete collapse of their rushing attack has left Herbert overexposed.
New Falcons starter Michael Penix Jr. can sling it. He’s also making his NFL debut in Week 16 for a team desperately trying to make the playoffs, one facing arguably the worst squad in the entire NFL in the Giants. New York gets destroyed deep, giving Penix some upside possibilities. He’s still barely cracking the top 24 in what is likely to be a sleepy game with a(nother) conservative Falcons game plan. Penix does salvage the floors for both Drake London and Darnell Mooney. There’s at least now a quarterback capable of delivering the ball.
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