A version of this news analysis originally appeared in the Inside Politics newsletter, out Fridays. Sign up here to get it first to your inbox.
The North Carolina Board of Elections on Wednesday denied Republican state Supreme Court candidate Jefferson Griffin’s request to reject the ballots cast by 60,000 voters from last month’s election.
Many of those voters have incomplete registration paperwork, such as not having a driver’s license number. The GOP has contended some could be fraudulent.
Griffin is trailing Democratic incumbent Allison Riggs by 734 votes out of more than 5.7 million ballots cast. That tiny margin has held up after a statewide machine recount and a hand count of a sample of ballots.
While the elections board’s vote had the appearance of finality, the case is far from over.
Griffin is likely to appeal — this time, to the courts rather than the Democratic-majority elections board.
And some Democrats are increasingly worried the state Supreme Court, led by Republican Chief Justice Paul Newby, could order a new election, without merit.
“The Newby Court has already demonstrated time and again that it is willing to disregard long-standing legal precedent in service of partisan outcomes,” voting rights attorney Kym Meyer said.
She said if the state’s highest court “conjured up a new law in an attempt to shape the makeup of the court’s own body it would be a shocking abuse of power.”
Meyer added: “I cannot believe the court would go there.”
Earlier in the week, state Democratic Party Chair Anderson Clayton said at a news conference she believes the GOP is trying to steal the seat.
N.C. GOP Party Chairman Jason Simmons turned it around, pointing the finger at Democrats on the elections board. He said in a news release that the “board’s continued efforts to engineer political outcomes for Democrats is shameful.”
This newsletter will examine closely the GOP’s challenge and what comes next. And it will show how photo ID — a Republican priority — defangs almost all of Griffin’s case.
The GOP’s challenge of 60,000 voters falls into three buckets.
The first are voters whose registrations are incomplete. They don’t have a driver’s license number or the last four digits of their Social Security number.
This is, in part, because the state elections board had confusing registration forms that didn’t make it explicitly clear what information was mandatory; county elections boards accepted the registrations and put those voters on the rolls.
The GOP unsuccessfully challenged 225,000 registrations before the election; the 60,000 represents the number of people who cast mail or early, in-person ballots that are retrievable.
The list of 60,000 includes some elected officials. It includes Riggs’ parents.
Carolina Public Press reached out to voters on the list, including Aldana Allen of Charlotte, a pastor who has been registered since 2012.
“Bewildered, although not surprised by such political tactics,” Allen said. “And frustrated that the onus for defending my voter right falls to me. I would not even have known that I was on the list had (Carolina Public Press) not called me. I would have had no idea to even take any possible action.”
During Wednesday’s hearing, attorneys for Griffin said they could not point to a voter that they are certain was ineligible to vote.
The second is about overseas and military voters who have never lived in the United States, but whose parents used to live in North Carolina.
The third is about overseas and military voters who did not provide a photo ID when voting with their absentee ballots.
The board unanimously rejected the third challenge about photo ID, finding state law is clear that overseas and military voters don’t need it.
The board voted along partisan lines, 3-2, against investigating further the challenges over the missing driver’s licenses/Social Security numbers and whether the children of North Carolina parents living overseas can vote in the election. The board also voted 3-2 that the challenged voters weren’t properly notified, essentially mooting the other questions as well.
It’s possible Griffin could let the board’s vote stand and concede. But Republican political consultant Paul Shumaker — who worked for Griffin — said by text Thursday that the “most likely next step will be a legal challenge” to the board’s decision.
That’s expected to be filed in Wake County Superior Court. It could be ultimately heard by the state Supreme Court, which has a 5-2 Republican majority.
The state Democratic Party has already sued in federal court to prevent the N.C. Board of Elections from discarding any ballots.
Their lawsuit has been assigned to Trump appointee Richard E. Meyers, who dismissed much of the GOP’s effort this fall to disqualify 225,000 voters.
What’s ironic about Griffin and the GOP’s challenge is that photo ID has undermined much of their case. By requiring photo ID to vote, Republicans have made the notion of challenging tens of thousands of voters who cast ballots as potentially fraudulent even more untenable. After all, those voters had to prove who they were at the polls, regardless of whether a number was missing on their registration paperwork.
The 60,000 challenged voters represent those who cast mail ballots or who voted early in person.
We know based on the overall electorate that almost all of them showed a photo ID when they cast their ballot.
Overall, 6,900 people came to the polls without an ID in the Nov. 5 election. That’s about 1 in every 830 voters.
Assuming that the rate of 1 in 830 voters was roughly the same for the group of 60,000, that would imply that about 73 of those voters cast ballots without an ID (i.e., they cast a provisional ballot instead and filled out a photo ID exception form.)
Riggs’ lead over Griffin is incredibly small at 734. But the number of contested voters who didn’t show an ID is likely far, far smaller.
